Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.40 1/2, near the daily low and hit a four-month low.
Fundamental analysis: The price downdraft in the corn futures market continues amid weak long liquidation from the retail speculative traders and from the big funds. Corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present remains overall price-bearish.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated U.S. corn plantings were 93% complete as of Sunday, while emergence was estimated at 76%. The portion of the crop rated good to excellent was 67%, which was below year-ago and the long-term average.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates at 136 MMT and 63 MMT, respectively. The Brazilian National Council of Energy Policy will meet in early June to formalize the decision that has already been made to increase the ethanol mixture in gasoline from E30 to E32, according to Dr. Cordonnier.
World Weather Inc. today said net drying is expected in a part of the U.S. Midwest over the coming week and temperatures will be seasonably warm. Most of the change will be welcome but there are parts of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana and southwestern Michigan that need a moisture boost already and may become too dry over time. Recent rain in southeastern South Dakota, Nebraska and neighboring states has brought some relief from dryness. However, more rain is needed. Key Midwestern crop areas should see a moisture boost next week. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas of Brazil have been trended drier recently. Northern Safrinha crop areas are dry and crops are filling, maturing and beginning to be harvested.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.60. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.33 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.45 3/4 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.39 and then at $4.36.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 15 1/2 cents to $11.65 1/4, near the daily low and hit a seven-week low. July soybean meal fell $0.30 to $326.20, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low early on. July soybean oil lost 68 points to 78.41 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market today saw technical selling pressure as July futures prices are now trending lower on the daily bar chart. Weather in the Midwest favors the soybean complex bears at present.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated the U.S. soybean crop was 87% planted as of Sunday, while emergence stood at 65%. In its first weekly condition rating, USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% good to excellent.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at 49 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur during the next two weeks, with breaks between rounds of rain likely to allow for planting to be completed in much of the region, with most central into eastern areas seeing dry weather and favorable conditions for fieldwork into Wednesday and eastern areas driest again Sunday into next Tuesday. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for late this week into this weekend along with additional showers into June 16 from eastern Iowa into central and northern Illinois and Wisconsin, where the topsoil has recently firmed up and mostly dry conditions are expected into Wednesday. Soil moisture in place in much of the Midwest and rain advertised during the next two weeks should favorably support crop development deep into the month if drier weather were to evolve in the second half of June.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.82 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $11.94 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.63 and then at $11.56 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $342.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $323.90 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday’s contract high of 79.69 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW lost 5 3/4 cents to $6.03, near the daily low and hit a six-week low. July HRW fell 12 1/4 cents to $6.34 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week low. September spring wheat fell 14 cents to $6.61 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling featured today. Lower corn and soybean futures prices today also aided the wheat bears. Recent wetter weather in U.S. HRW wheat country has somewhat benefited the crop and that’s also price-bearish.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. winter wheat crop was 26% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. The crop was estimated to be 87% headed and 5% harvested. Spring wheat received its first rating of the season as well, coming in at 6% very poor to poor, 47% fair, and 47% good to excellent.
Australia’s upcoming wheat harvest will be the smallest in three years, as high fertilizer costs and dry conditions in some areas reduce planting and yields, according to its government earlier today.
World weather today said some of the minor wheat areas in the southern United States from the Delta into the southern Plains may experience some harvest delay and quality declines because of expected rain. Portions of the southeastern states will also be a little wet. A favorable mix of weather is expected in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies over the next two weeks, supporting spring and summer crop development. However, there will be some slowdown in fieldwork. Alberta, Canada may become a little too wet during the coming 10 days, delaying fieldwork and raising concern about early season crop development rates.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.10 1/4 and then at $6.30. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at $5.80.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.48 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $6.61 1/2. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 40 points to 77.04 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some more short covering today. Gains were limited by a continued selloff in the grain futures markets.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop at 64% planted as of Sunday, versus 64% one year ago at the same time and a 67% five-year average. The U.S. crop was 7% squaring versus the same one year ago and for the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in U.S. cotton areas from west Texas to the Carolinas, Georgia, northern Florida and South Texas has improved crop and field conditions – some more than others. Additional moisture is expected in west Texas this week that will further raise topsoil moisture for improved planting, emergence and establishment conditions. Next week will be drier again in west Texas. Crop improvements have also occurred in the southeastern states with more rain expected. Soil conditions in the Delta will remain wet for a while and some drying might be welcome.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 85.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 78.36 cents and then at 79.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 75.42 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.