Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 cents to $5.36 3/4, near the daily low and for the week up 1/4 cent. Prices did close at a technically bearish weekly low close today.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market hit a three-year high at mid-week and then prices consolidated amid some profit-taking pressure. Given recent solid gains, the shorter-term spec bulls likely lightened their positions heading into a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. The state of the French corn crop deteriorated further last week to a fresh record low following severe drought and heat this summer, according to FranceAgriMer today.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Tuesday afternoon. Traders are looking forward to next Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said too much heat and dryness in the southwestern U.S. Corn Belt and Delta may be cutting into some yields. Soil moisture in the heart of the central and eastern Midwest is still rated well and crops are likely developing favorably. Northwestern Corn areas have remained drier biased which has likely cut into a little yield and that situation is unlikely to change for at least another week. Meanwhile, France, the U.K. and southeastern Europe have been dry enough for a long enough period of time to cut into some production. Some of that dryness has extended into Russia’s Southern region, as well. The lack of rain in France recently has not helped the situation.
90-day outlook: Harvesting and commercial hedge pressure could tap the brakes on the rally in the corn futures markets in the coming weeks. Lingering uncertainties regarding the Black Sea and Sea of Azov grain shipments will remain very market-sensitive for all of the grains into at least the end of this year. Those export risks are compounded by already reduced supplies in the European Union after a severe drought in western Europe this growing season. Plus, there is concern that a strengthening El Niño could trim output in key Southern Hemisphere grain regions later this year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 1/2 cents to $13.09 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week up 21 3/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $0.40 to $355.10, near mid-range, hit a more-than-two-year high for the contract, and for the week up $6.20. December bean oil fell 77 points to 69.27 cents, near mid-range and for the week down 179 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures markets today saw some mild profit-taking pressure heading into a long U.S. holiday weekend. Losses were limited as USDA this morning reported daily sales of 250,600 MT of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year.
Tuesday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders are looking forward to next Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: The expected mid-month summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will be a major focal point for the soybean market. Tensions between the world’s two largest economies have risen the past few weeks.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Monday in the northwestern Corn Belt, where some soybeans will benefit from the rain. Much of the remainder of the northern and parts of the eastern Midwest also receives at least some rain. Some soybeans and corn in the northwestern Corn Belt will see small increases in yields after the coming rain with the precipitation too late for a major boost in production. Little rain and hot temperatures will occur into Wednesday from the southwestern Corn Belt into western and central Kentucky and southwestern Indiana, favoring crop maturation and early harvesting with subsoil moisture adequate to support most late crop development. The hot temperatures and drying soils will rush crops to maturity and yields should decline.
90-day outlook: In the coming months, further details on this week’s EPA rulings on refinery exemptions and other specifics regarding the Trump administration’s biofuels policy will likely surface and are likely to be price-sensitive to the soybean complex futures. Malaysian palm oil production will be monitored as well as any impacts of the El Nino weather phenomenon on oilseed production in the Southern Hemisphere.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat 20 1/4 cents to $7.34, near the daily low low and for the week down 50 cents. December HRW wheat lost 13 1/4 cents to $8.02 1/4, near the daily low and for the week down 42 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 20 1/2 cents to $7.45, near the daily low and for the week down 24 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets bulls did not want to go home for the three-day holiday weekend overly long wheat futures, especially as U.S. envoys are headed for Russia and Ukraine this weekend to talk peace. Thus, they took some profits and evened positions today. Russian President Putin late this week said there may be a chance for peace.
Tuesday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders. Traders are looking forward to next Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in winter wheat production areas in the U.S. Plains, western and southeastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia’s southern Region, but there is plenty of time for this to evolve. There may eventually be need for greater rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. Australia’s wheat and barley is still rated well in the south while that in Queensland and northern New South Wales will likely underperform this year because of El Nino heat and dryness. Spring wheat harvesting in China, Canada and the northern U.S. Plains is advancing relatively well. There is need for drier weather in parts of Russia and some areas in Canada where rain has been disrupted by rain periodically. Argentina’s wheat establishment has likely advanced well. Some rain is needed in the western production areas. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably. Northern Brazil crops have developed well and harvesting has begun. There is concern that too much rain will negatively impact southern Brazil crops later this spring.
90-day outlook: Global wheat supplies, weather concerns and the so-called Super El Nino, as well as ongoing grain-shipping constraints out of the Black Sea region will remain on the front burner of the wheat markets in the coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 12 points to 86.33 cents, nearer the daily low, hit a three-week low and the week were down 505 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw mild profit-taking pressure today to extend daily losses to four in a row, including today’s technically bearish weekly low close that sets the markets up for follow-through, chart-based selling when trading resumes next Tuesday. Traders will be eyeing Tuesday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Traders are also looking forward to next Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above a revised 23,000 job increase in July and much higher than expectations of 56,000 jobs. The jobs data this morning ultimately showed a robust labor market, further bolstering justification for a rate hike later this month. That’s a mixed bag for consumer confidence heading into the fall/winter apparel-buying season and for the cotton market. The stronger labor market means potentially better demand for apparel, but higher U.S. interest rates could crimp consumer confidence.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Stress to crops will be briefly eased in small areas by light showers that occur most days into this weekend with crops also benefitting a few more possible showers Sep. 10-12. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through most of the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment. The remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard will bring showers to the Blacklands today.
90-day outlook: A surprising surge in the U.S. stock market in late July and stock index prices holding not far below their summertime highs have helped out the cotton futures bulls and has put consumers in a better frame of mind heading into the fall apparel season. However, the stock, financial and currency markets are now just into the two most turbulent trading months of the year. Any wobbles could dent consumers and the cotton market. Gasoline prices at the pump which are still around or just above $4.00 a gallon are a potentially bearish development for consumer confidence and cotton futures market in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.