Corn
Price action: September corn fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.09 1/4, while December futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $4.25 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures held a muted tone into USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Acreage Reports, though turned decidedly lower after their release. While corn acres were slightly smaller than the government’s March estimates, it was still up 4.61 million acres from last year, with a harvested area estimate of 86.774 million acres, up 5% from year-ago. It was also the largest corn figure in this report since 2013. However, as of June 16, there were still 3.629 million acres of corn left to plant.
USDA reported corn plantings declined by 50,000 acres in Ohio, 100,000 acres each in Illinois and Minnesota, 200,000 acres in Kansas and 300,000 acres in Nebraska. Meanwhile, increases of 100,000 acres were reported for Michigan, Missouri and South Dakota, while North Dakota rose 50,000 acres.
In the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, USDA pegged June 1 stocks in all positions up 347 million bu. (6.9%) from year-ago and 3 million bu. Above the average pre-report trade estimate. Implied use in the third quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year was 3.5 billion bu., up 4.2% from the same quarter last year.
USDA also reported weekly export inspections midmorning, which showed net inspections during the week ended June 26 totaled 1.37 MMT, down 134,096 MT but within the pre-report range of 1.25 MMT to 1.665. MMT.
Crop progress and condition ratings will be updated following the close, with analysts expecting the “good” to “excellent” rating to remain steady at 70%, according to a Bloomberg poll of analysts.
Technical analysis: September corn continued to face technical headwinds from the 10-, 20-, 40- 100- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.15 3/4 to $4.42, while initial support served at $4.06 1/2. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage and are looking to secure a close below last week’s low of $4.02 1/4 and ultimately psychological support at $4.00. Meanwhile, bulls will need to edge above the May 22 high of $4.44 1/4 to regain technical strength.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans climbed 2 1/4 cent to $10.27 and settled near mid-range. December meal rose 80 cents to $289.30, near mid-range. December bean oil climbed 14 points to 52.75 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw a relatively quiet day of trade despite historically volatile USDA reports. Prices reversed from early strength and ended the day mixed, largely due to the surprise in grain stocks. USDA reported soybean stocks totaling 1.008 billion bushels on June 1. Trade expected 980 million bushels. Stocks were above 970 million bushels last year at this time. Most of the miss can be attributed to negative residual use – usually a sign that USDA underestimated the prior year’s crop. More will be known on that score come September. USDA pegged 2025 soybean acres at 83.38 million acres, down just 115,000 acres from the March Prospective Plantings figure, the smallest change since 2021. There were still 11.545 million acres yet to be planted at the time of reporting, but there were 12.767 million in 2024, the vast majority of which were planted.
Much of the lower Midwest saw rain over the weekend, helping bolster soil moisture, says World Weather Inc. Regular rounds of rain are expected over the course of the next ten days, which will be paired with more seasonal temperatures, keeping production potential high over much of the Midwest.
USDA reported daily soymeal sales of 204,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2025-26. Continued exports of soymeal will be needed as the U.S. will have an abundance of meal as crushing for bean oil has taken precedence after heightened incentives for using soyoil for biofuels.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 224,787 MT (8.3 million bu.), down 22,934 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 150,000 to 400,000 MT. Inspections have slowed seasonally in recent weeks. There will need to be an uptick in inspections if the USDA export estimate is to be reached.
Technical analysis: November soybean futures posted modest gains today, building on Friday’s strength. Prices are consolidating near recent and two-month lows, a push much lower would indicate a technical breakdown, though currently bulls and bears are on an overall level technical playing field. Resistance stands at $10.34, the 100-day moving average, on persistent strength, with a push higher than that eyeing resistance at $10.46. Support comes in at $10.25 then last week’s low of $10.13 1/4 on a reversal lower.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 cents to $5.60, nearer the session low and hit a six-week low. December HRW wheat fell 6 3/4 cents to $5.50, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week low. September spring wheat futures slid 9 cents to $6.39.
Fundamental analysis: One of the biggest USDA data points of the year delivered a “nothing burger” to the wheat futures markets today. This morning’s USDA plantings update and quarterly grain stocks reports showed the agency estimate U.S. all-wheat plantings at 45.478 million acres, up 128,000 acres from March intentions and 40,000 acres more than analysts expected. Meantime, June 1 U.S. wheat stocks in all positions increased 155 million bu. (22.3%) from a year-ago and were 15 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate.
USDA also this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 434,539 MT, up 179,657 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations.
Losses in the wheat futures markets were somewhat limited today by a drop in the U.S. dollar index to a 3.5-year low. Also, improved risk appetite in the general marketplace recently has been a friendly element for the grain futures markets.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country “a relatively good mix of rain and sunshine will impact hard red winter wheat areas during the next two weeks. The environment will be good for wheat filling and maturation in the north, although the precipitation may prove to be a little disruptive for harvesting in the south. No persistent rainfall is expected that would seriously harm the quality of unharvested wheat,” said the forecaster. In the northern Plains, conditions through the next ten days to two weeks “will still be nearly ideal for the region, with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. Montana may be a little drier than preferred in some areas.”
This afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. spring wheat condition at 55% good to excellent as of Sunday, compared to 54% last week and 72% at the same time last year. U.S. winter wheat condition is expected at 49% good to excellent as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 51% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid the recent steep price downdrafts. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.67 1/4 and then at $5.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.56 3/4 and then at $5.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.60 1/2 and then at $5.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.50 and then at $5.38 1/2.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton plunged 119 points to 68.13 cents, closing nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures tumbled following USDA’s release of its Acreage Report. The government reported U.S. cotton acres at 10.12 million, up from 9.867 million in March and above the average pre-report estimate of 9.735 million acres. However, the figure is still 10% below year-ago.
Texas planted 5.726 million acres to cotton, down 257,000 acres from March intentions, while Georgia planted 1.0 million acres to cotton, matching USDA’s March figure.
The remainder of the holiday-shortened week will be include a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell as well as June ISM Manufacturing PMI data and Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) on Tuesday, with Wednesday featuring June ADP nonfarm employment data and the June Jobs Report on Thursday.
USDA will update weekly crop progress & condition ratings through Sunday following the close.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures ended the session below support at 100- and 40-day moving averages, trading at 68.62 cents at 68.28 cents. Initial support will now serve at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of 67.94 cents and 67.86 cents, which will be key levels to hold this week. Meanwhile, bulls will look to edge back above last week’s high of 69.52 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.