Corn
Price action: December corn rose 5 1/2 cents to $4.73, near mid-range and hit a six-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw speculator buying interest and likely more big hedge-fund short covering as a persistent heat wave envelops the Plains states into the far western Corn Belt. Also supportive, USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 100,000 MT to Colombia during the 2026-27 marketing year.
USDA also reported weekly export inspections totaled 1.55 MMT for the week ended July 16, up 4,771 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the analysts’ range of expectations from 1.4 to 1.6 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the Northern Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt over the next 10 days, resulting in some concern over yield potential because reproduction for corn has begun. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop condition reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 66% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, versus 68% in the same conditions last week at the same time and 74% one year ago.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.70 and then at $4.68 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans surged 23 1/4 cents to $12.26 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a 3.5-year high for the contract. September soybean meal rose $4.10 to $321.20, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month high. September soybean oil fell 11 points to 73.82 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw strong speculative buying today as weather in the Midwest is heating up for late July. Fresh demand news also boosted the soybean and meal markets. USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 264,000 MT to China and 110,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 296,972 MT during the week ended July 16, down 151,018 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were well below the expected pre-report range of expectations from 400,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northwestern corn and soybean belt over the next 10 days, resulting in some concern over yield potential. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop condition reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 64% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, versus 65% in the same conditions last week at the same time and 68% one year ago.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.73 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.07 1/2 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $328.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $311.10. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $328.40. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at today’s low of $316.70.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend back in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 74.60 cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at 72.50 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW fell 8 3/4 cents to $6.74, near the daily low. September HRW lost 8 1/2 cents to $7.23 3/4, near the daily low and hit a nine-week high early on. September spring wheat futures rose 1/2 cent to $6.92 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw profit-taking pressure from recent good gains. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also negative for wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 213,993 MT during the week ended July 16, down 182,353 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were just within the pre-report range of estimates from 200,000 to 300,000 MT.
France’s wheat crop is expected to fall to 30.80 MMT, down 7% from 2025, according to Argus Media.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, good harvest weather is predicted for the next week to 10 days. Some drying in summer crop areas will raise a little crop stress especially during the weekend and next week when temperatures become seasonably warm once again after a brief period of milder conditions in the next few days. Recent rain was good for summer crops. In the Northern Plains, yield potential is still coming down in spring wheat production areas from Montana into the Dakotas due to excessive heat, poor soil moisture, and minimal rain. These conditions will prevail for the next 10 days and could lead to additional production losses. The heat should slowly ease this weekend into next week, but no big change is likely before then.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop condition reports are expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop 56% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, versus 58% in the same conditions last week at the same time and 52% one year ago. U.S. winter wheat harvested is seen at 78% complete as of Sunday.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.29 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.92 1/4 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.66 1/2 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.58. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.59 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.40 1/2 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at $7.11 1/2 and then at $7.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 29 points to 78.92 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw a corrective bounce after two straight sessions of losses. Higher corn and soybean futures prices today were bullish outside-market elements for cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not have much of an impact on soil moisture. Areas that received significant rain recently will have enough soil moisture to support dryland cotton for a while longer as the soil dries down, while the many areas that failed to receive significant rain will see increasing crop stress. The Blacklands, South Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks. Cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell last week in the Blacklands and the central and northern Coastal Bend. South Texas and the southern Coastal Bend missed much of the significant rain and should see rising levels of crop stress through the period.
Cotton traders are looking ahead to this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart is still in place but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep it alive. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 80.23 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 77.73 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.