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Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 2 3/4 cent to $4.43 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some technical selling pressure, with losses in the winter wheat futures markets this week also a bearish weight on corn.
Bulls got no help today from USDA this morning reporting 125,000 MT of U.S. corn sold to unknown destinations during 2025-26. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 600,000 to 1.6 million MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT for the 2026-27 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said central and northern Brazil will see regular rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks, and the drier areas from northern Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo will benefit from the moisture. Soil moisture is marginal to short in some Safrinha corn areas from Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana and nearby Sao Paulo and with little rain into Thursday soil moisture should become short in much of the region. A close watch will be made rain advertised to begin Friday as significant rain is needed to improve soil moisture enough to favorably support Safrinha corn development. Safrinha corn areas will need follow-up rain soon. In Argentina, much of the country outside of some southern areas will benefit from multiple rounds of rain through this weekend resulting in notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while fieldwork is slowed.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.52 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.34. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.47 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.40 1/4 and then at $4.37.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 1 cent to $11.69 1/2, near mid-range. May soybean meal fell $4.80 to $309.950, near the daily low. May soybean oil rose 77 points to 63.58, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market paused at midweek, while spreaders were again featured buying bean oil and selling meal today. Some improved risk appetite in the general marketplace today did limit selling interest in the soy complex futures.
China’s legislature has signaled a desire for steady relations with the U.S. as the countries prepare for a planned summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump in coming weeks, according to a Bloomberg report. Lou Qinjian, spokesman for the National People’s Congress, told reporters today that “head of state diplomacy” remains the “irreplaceable” driver of bilateral ties.
Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 300,000 to 1 million MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT for the 2026-27 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said good field and weather conditions are expected for soybean maturation and harvesting over the next week in Brazil. Rainy weather will continue for a little while longer from northern Minas Gerais to Maranhao and Piaui where some delay to farming activity is expected. Recent drying and that expected early to mid-week this week from southern Mato Grosso and areas south to Rio Grande do Sul should be closely monitored. Timely rain is expected late this week into early next week before additional drying occurs which makes the rain event very important in preserving favorable soil moisture for long-term crop development. Argentina needs greater rain in the east and some of that need will be fulfilled by rain late this week into next week. The moisture distribution must be closely monitored to ensure the best possible crop development.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.75 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $11.85. First support is seen at $11.60 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $316.40 and then at this week’s high of $306.70. First support is seen at $303.00.
Bean oil bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback, and the bulls appear tired now. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 65.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 58.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 64.28 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 62.31 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.68 1/4, nearer the daily low. May HRW lost 5 3/4 cents to $5.72 1/2, nearer the daily low. May spring wheat futures fell 4 cents to $6.09 1/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market today saw more technical selling pressure as price uptrends on the daily charts have stalled out. Losses in the corn futures market today were also negative for wheat.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 500,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, and sales of zero to 100,000 MT for the 2026-27 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way in Canada. The U.S. need for moisture should steadily rise in March, especially with warmer than usual weather anticipated at times in the high Plains region. Some rain will fall in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas this week and into the weekend with western areas seeing the lightest amounts. Temperatures have been bouncing around significantly in the U.S. Plains recently limiting new crop development, especially in the driest areas. Soft wheat in the Midwest will receive drought reducing rain in the next 10 days and some local flooding will be possible. Damaged wheat in the U.S. Plains will need a mild to cool spring with frequent precipitation for successful new tillering to take place. For now, those conditions seem unlikely and a warm and dry bias could further harm some of the damaged crop especially if the warm and dry conditions prevail into April. Meantime, winter wheat prospects are mostly good in Europe, the former Soviet Union, China and India. There are some concerns for lower yields in India because of warm and dry biased conditions during reproduction and there is still some concern about excessive moisture and possible flooding in western Russia. Winterkill was limited in Europe, the FSU and China.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading as price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out. This week’s price action suggests the winter wheat bulls have at least temporarily run out of gas. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.03 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.77 and then at $5.85 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.63 1/2 and then at $5.50.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.84 3/4 and then at $5.90 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.56 3/4 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton rose 12 points to 64.16 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw some tepid short covering following recent losses that have put the bears back in firm control. Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. Some showers may evolve later this week into next week, but a general soaking seems a little unlikely. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected for a while. California will fall back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks, although drought status will remain. Meantime, eastern Queensland, Australia may get some rain late this week into early next week. The moisture may come too late in the growing season to be of much help for production. Some early season crops are already in the open boll stage of development and could be impacted by too much rain. Western cotton areas in the state and most of those in New South Wales are unlikely to be impacted by much rain. This summer’s heat and dryness at times may have unirrigated boll counts and sizes down relative to normal. Today’s latest model runs have reduced the potential for significant rain impacting these cotton areas, though the situation should be closely monitored.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.88 cents and then at this week’s high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.82 cents and then at 63.41 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.