Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 3/4 cent to $4.46 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw buying interest limited by elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace, a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index this week and big sell-offs in the gold and silver markets today. Solid gains in crude oil futures today limited the downside in corn futures.
USDA reported daily export sales of 196,000 MT of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said good field and weather conditions are expected for Safrinha corn planting over the next week in Brazil. Rainy weather will continue for a little while longer from northern Minas Gerais to Maranhao and Piaui where some delay to farming activity is expected. Recent drying and that expected early to mid-week this week from southern Mato Grosso and areas south to Rio Grande do Sul should be closely monitored. Timely rain is expected late this week into early next week before additional drying occurs which makes the rain event very important in preserving favorable soil moisture for long term crop development. Argentina needs greater rain in the east and some of that need will be fulfilled by rain late this week into next week. The moisture distribution must be closely monitored to ensure the best possible crop development.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.34. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at this week’s high of $4.52 1/2. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.37.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 6 1/2 cents to $11.70 1/2, near mid-range. May soybean meal gained $1.80 to $314.70, near mid-range. May soybean oil rose 8 points to 62.82, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets early on today saw buying interest squelched by keener risk aversion in the general marketplace, as well as this week’s strong rally in the U.S. dollar index that today to a six-week high. Strong selling pressure in gold and silver markets today also had the grain market bulls squeamish. However, soybeans and meal made late-session rebounds as the U.S. stock indexes and precious metals moved well up from their daily lows.
Price-friendly for the soy complex today, there are signs a late March-early April summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping remains on track despite China’s anger over U.S. military action against Iran.
World Weather Inc. today said rain into Thursday will favor northern Brazil, where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development. Central and northern Brazil will see regular rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while some fieldwork should advance around the precipitation. Rain will be infrequent in southern Brazil and Paraguay through the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around important rain events Friday into next Tuesday and Mar. 14-15. Much of Argentina outside of some southern areas will benefit from multiple rounds of rain through this weekend resulting in notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while fieldwork is slowed. Much of Argentina will see little rain and improving to favorable conditions for fieldwork Monday into Mar. 17 with some timely showers in western and northern areas Mar. 11-14.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, this week’s price action begins to suggest the bulls may be near-term exhausted. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.70 and then at this week’s high of $11.85. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at last week’s low of $11.43.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart is stalling out. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $316.90 and then at this week’s high of $320.60. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at $306.70.
Bean oil bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback, and the bulls appear tired now. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 65.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 58.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 63.00 cents and then at 64.00 cents. First support is seen at 62.00 cents and then at 61.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.74, near mid-range. May HRW rose 3 1/2 cents to $5.78 1/4, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.13 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market today saw some technical selling pressure amid a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index, which hit a six-week high today. Elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace today was also a negative for the wheat markets, as were big sell-offs in the gold and silver markets today. However, the winter wheat markets moved up from their daily lows in later trading, as the U.S. stock indexes and precious metals markets rebounded well up from their daily lows.
World Weather Inc. today said rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way in Canada. The U.S. need for moisture should steadily rise in March, especially with warmer-than-usual weather anticipated at times in the high Plains region. Some rain will fall in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas this week and into the weekend with western areas seeing the lightest amounts. Temperatures have been bouncing around significantly in the U.S. Plains recently limiting new crop development especially in the driest areas. Soft wheat in the Midwest will receive drought reducing rain in the next ten days and some local flooding will be possible. Damaged wheat in the U.S. Plains will need a mild to cool spring with frequent precipitation for successful new tillering to take place. For now, those conditions seem unlikely and a warm and dry bias could further harm some of the damaged crop especially if the warm and dry conditions prevail into April Meantime, winter wheat prospects are mostly good in Europe, the former Soviet Union, China and India. There are some concerns for lower yields in India because of warm and dry biased conditions during reproduction and there is still some concern about excessive moisture and possible flooding in western Russia. Winterkill was limited in Europe, the FSU and China.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but price uptrends on the daily bar charts are stalling out. This week’s price action suggests the winter wheat bulls have at least temporarily run out of gas. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.03 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.85 3/4 and then at $5.95. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.63 1/2 and then at $5.50.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.84 3/4 and then at $5.90 3/4. First support is seen at $5.70 and then at last week’s low of $5.56 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton lost 55 points to 64.04 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw technical selling pressure as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace and a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index this week were also negatives for cotton futures today, as were big sell offs in the gold and silver markets.
World Weather Inc. today said a period of wetter weather will occur into Mar. 11 resulting in beneficial increases in soil moisture in parts of Texas cotton regions, with western and central parts of west Texas, the Panhandle, and south Texas seeing the least precipitation. Much more rain will be needed in western Texas and south Texas to increase soil moisture to favorable levels before the coming planting season.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have regained the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.88 cents and then at this week’s high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.82 cents and then at 63.41 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.