Corn
Price action: September corn fell 5 1/2 cents to $3.98, a new contract low close, while December corn fell 6 1/2 cents to $4.14 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures dove to fresh contract lows, driven by improving crop conditions and a firmer U.S. dollar. Trade uncertainty also continues to ring across commodities, though President Trump signed an Executive Order that extends the effective date on the tariffs announced April 2 to Aug. 1, erasing the former July 9 deadline. The brief order formalizes what Trump and other officials had signaled over the weekend. However, it is not clear whether Aug. 1 will be a hard and fast deadline.
USDA rated the corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, up one point from the previous week, while 5% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” In the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop inched up 0.6 point to 382.0, which is 6.7 points above year-ago.
Moreover, low prices continue to spur export demand, with Mexico stepping in to purchase 112,776 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis: September corn forged a contract low close, ending the session below psychological support at $4.00. Bears will now attempt to edge below support at $3.89, though initial support will now serve at today’s low of $3.96 3/4, then $3.89 1/4. Conversely, initial resistance will stand at $4.00, then $4.06 1/4, and the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.08 3/4 to $4.16 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans fell 10 1/4 cents to $10.21 1/4, a near mid-range close, while August soymeal fell $1.50 to $270.70. August soyoil rose 17 points to 54.11 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans extended Monday’s selloff amid technical selling, with meal extending to a more than nine-year low on the continuous chart. A push into near-term oversold territory could limit an extension lower, though pressure in meal could continue to weigh on the complex. Meanwhile, global trade will also remain a focus, with tensions with China reforming.
USDA reported the soybean crop was 66% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6 and 7% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 1.9 points to 363.7, which is 1.7 points below year ago.
Meanwhile, diving soymeal futures have spurred export demand with the Philippines stepping in to purchase 144,000 MT. Of the total, 97,000 MT is for 2024-25 and 47,000 MT for 2025-26.
A report from Reuters indicated Indonesian palm oil exports to the U.S. could drop by as much as 20% if Washington moves ahead with a proposed 32% tariff on Indonesian goods. Currently, Indonesia supplies 85% of U.S. palm oil imports.
Technical analysis: August soybeans found support at $10.12 ¼, while stiff resistance stood at the 10-, 100-, 200-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $10.28 1/2 to $10.32 1/2. Bears will look towards breaching the psychological $10.00 level and to secure a close below the early April low of $9.71 1/4, while bulls look to edge above June 20 high of $10.74 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.68 1/2, near mid-range. The December HRW wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.47 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 8 cents to $6.49.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to get pulled down by the recent selling pressure in the corn and soybean markets, which saw December corn hit a fresh contract low today.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, and 15% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop declined 3.8 points to 351.6, which is 31.9 points below last year. U.S. winter wheat harvest advanced 16 points to 53% as of July 6, still on point behind the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said wheat conditions in Canada “are a concern, with parts of the prairies losing yield potential because of dryness. U.S. wheat production seems poised to do favorably in the Midwest and northern Plains, but it has been a tough year in the central Plains and dryland areas of the Pacific Northwest.” Meantime, wet weather is expected across many Russia spring wheat areas, while parts of Europe “continue to limp along with some dryness issues in the west and southeast hurting production of some winter grain and threatening unirrigated spring cereals in a few areas,” said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.63 1/2 and then at the June low of $5.56 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.86. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.59 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.73 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.45 1/2 and then at $5.38 1/2.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 51 points to 67.38 cents, a more than two-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures extended losses for a third straight session amid technical selling and pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar. USDA reported a slight improvement in cotton conditions, at 52% “good” to “excellent,” up one point from last week, while 17% was rated “poor” to “very poor,” unchanged from last week.
Weather in the U.S. remains favorably mixed over the next ten days, while weather in Argentina will be drier-biased for much of the coming week to ten days, favoring crop maturation and harvest progress. World Weather Inc. reports the same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring regions in Brazil.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures carved an outside day down, with initial support now serving around 67.17 cents, while resistance will stand at 67.53 cents, then the 20-, 40-, 10- and 100-day moving averages. Bears will continue to focus on securing a close below the June 23 low of 66.27 cents, while bulls look to take out the June 27 high of 69.52 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.