Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 13 cents to $4.70 1/4, near the session low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today was pressured by good early-season U.S. corn planting/growing conditions. World Weather Inc. today said corn-region weather conditions in Brazil, Argentina and the United States “should be largely beneficial and supportive of crop development and fieldwork, although the U.S. may be a little wetter-biased in a few areas for brief periods of time.”
The corn market got little help from USDA reporting a daily U.S. corn sale of 120,000 MT to Spain for delivery during 2024-25.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 24% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of April 27, two percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
Pro Farmer’s South American crop consultant, Michael Cordonnier, raised his Argentine corn crop estimate 1 MMT, to 49 MMT but maintained his Brazilian estimate of 125 MMT. However, he has a higher bias toward the Brazilian corn crop as weather is favorable for safrinha production.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the March low of $4.50 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.75 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at $4.65 and then at $4.60.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 9 3/4 cents to $10.52 3/4, ending near mid-range. July soymeal rose $2.30 to $298.20, closing near the session high. July soyoil slid 113 points to 49.33 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans succumbed to general pressure across the ag complex, ultimately testing support at the 10- and 200-day moving averages. Questionable U.S./China trade relations continue to lend a risk-off tone as traders remain cautious amid looming uncertainties. Meanwhile, global production prospects are improving as U.S. planting advanced to 18% complete as of April 27. Moreover, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier bumped his Argentine soybean estimate by 1 MMT to 50 MMT, amid stronger-than-expected yields. However, Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian production estimate of 169 MMT.
A daily sale of 110,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations was mildly supportive, though China’s agriculture ministry reported it aims to cut grain and soymeal use in livestock feed, negating some optimism.
A hefty decline in soyoil futures also weighed on the complex, though solid technical support limited selling interest. Meanwhile, as the session progressed, soymeal found some buying interest, which helped tug nearby soybean futures back above the 200-day moving average.
Technical analysis: July soybeans ended the session above the 10- and 200-day moving averages following a midmorning test of both. However, initial resistance served at Monday’s high of $10.64, which is backed by resistance at $10.67 1/4 and the Feb. 5 high of $11.04 3/4. Meanwhile, the 10- and 200-day moving averages, currently trading at $10.51 3/4 and $10.49 1/2, will continue to serve up initial resistance, with backing from the 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered at 10.40 3/4, 10.39 3/4 and $10.32 1/2.
July meal futures continue to be limited by the 20- and 10-day moving averages, trading at $299.10 and $299.60, which are backed by psychological resistance at $300.00 and the 40-day moving average of $302.90. Meanwhile, bears will continue to look to take out the April 4 low of $289.70, though initial support will serve at $293.80 and $291.60.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures fell 5 1/2 cents to $5.25 1/2 and closed near session lows. July HRW skid 8 3/4 cents to $5.31 and closed on session lows. July spring wheat futures fell 4 cents to $5.92 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Fruitful growing conditions and reports of heightened competition for exports both weighed heavily on wheat futures today. Selling was featured across the grain and soy complex today as lack of progress on the trade deal front is beginning to garner more attention. SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2024-25 wheat exports to 40.7 MMT, up 200,000 MT from a previous estimate. SovEcon increased its outlook for 2025-26 exports by 600,000 MT to 39.7 MMT. The firm had previously lowered their export estimate for both outlooks and the reversal, beginning to anticipate a return of demand, bodes ill for U.S. markets today. While that is certainly possible, there are a few ways to think about resurgent world export demand. Demand on the world market has been fairly abysmal the past couple of months. SovEcon raising their Russian export forecast at the same time as U.S. export shipments totaling well more than historical norms both point to one thing – rising world demand. As we have been reporting over the past couple of months, world import demand has slowed to a snail’s pace. Importers returning to the market can hardly be taken as a bearish sign.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop 49% “good” to “excellent” and 19% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 9.2 points to 325.0, fueled by a 5.4-point jump in top producer Kansas. The SRW rating dropped 1.5 points as slight declines in Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Arkansas offset modest improvements in the other states.
Technical analysis: July SRW futures forged a fresh contract low today as prices continued to trend lower on the daily bar chart. Psychological support persists at $5.25 and is reinforced by support at $5.17 1/2. Bulls are seeking to reclaim resistance at $5.32 1/2 before challenging stiff resistance at $5.40. July HRW futures continue to trend lower as well and have shortened premiums held to SRW futures in the past couple of weeks. Support comes in at the psychological $5.25 mark on continued selling pressure. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.40 before challenging stiff psychological resistance at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 106 points to 66.49 cents, forging a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures faced extended selling pressure amid lingering trade uncertainty while planting efforts continue to pace ahead of average. A firmer U.S. dollar also cast a shadow over commodities in general. However, equities were bolstered by a friendlier-than-expected Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. The data indicated that while U.S. job openings dropped sharply in March, a decline in layoffs suggested the labor market remained on solid footing.
USDA reported cotton plantings advanced 4 percentage points during the week ended April 27, which was a point ahead of the five-year average. Texas was pegged at 21% complete, three percentage points ahead of average, while Georgia was estimated at 6% complete, two points behind average.
Improving weather conditions in West Texas are likely casting a pall over the cotton market, with periodic rainfall expected over the next two weeks, which comes after significant rain last weekend. South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will receive “some” rain after May 4, while excessive moisture in areas of the Delta is expected to prevail, limiting field progress.
Technical analysis: July cotton faced resistance at the 20-, 40- and 10-day moving averages, layered from 67.11 cents to 67.42 cents, with backing from the 100-day moving average of 68.77 cents. Bulls will need to score a close above these levels for a chance at 70.00 cents. Meanwhile, bears will continue to focus on breaching the April 4 low of 62.05 cents, with first support at 66.33 cents, then 65.37 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.