Corn
Price action: May corn fell 4 cents to $4.79 1/4, marking the lowest close since April 8.
Fundamental outlook: Corn futures faced selling for the fourth straight session, though technical support and strength in the soy complex curbed those efforts. Recent planting across the Corn Belt has traders factoring in USDA’s 96-million-acre corn crop, largely ignoring improving trade rhetoric as the Trump administration is leaning more concessionary this week. Politico reported the White House is preparing to unveil non-binding trade frameworks with Japan and India to delay steep tariffs and show diplomatic progress before the July deadline. These are not comprehensive trade deals, but memorandums of understanding designed to signal momentum while leaving core issues unresolved. The U.S. is also reportedly preparing its terms for trade negotiations with the United Kingdom, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the plans, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff barriers on a variety of goods.
Meanwhile, production prospects in South America continue to improve with regular rounds of rain expected in safrinha corn areas, as well as in much of the remainder of Brazil and Paraguay through the next ten days. World Weather Inc. reports this should supply enough soil moisture for the crop to develop favorably through early May and likely into the middle of the month in many areas.
Earlier today, the Energy Information Administration reported weekly ethanol production averaged 1.033 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended April 18, which was up 21,000 bpd (2.1%) from the previous week and 79,000 bpd (8.3%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 1.333 million barrels to 25.481 million barrels.
Technical outlook: July corn futures faced support at the 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.77 1/2 to $4.74 1/2, while the 10-day stood as initial resistance. Bulls’ grip on the technical advantage has loosened a bit but are still poised to take a run at the $5.00 psychological level, while bears look to forge a close below the March 28 low of $4.50 1/2. First resistance will stand at the 10-day moving average, then at $4.96 and $49.8 1/2, while support will remain at the 100-, 20- and 40-day moving average, then at $4.70 1/2 and the 200-day moving average of $4.59 3/4.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 4 1/4 cents to $10.50 1/4, near mid-range. July soybean meal fell 90 cents to $298.60, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. July soybean oil rose 31 points to 48.34 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean bulls received mild support today on news President Trump said the current 145% tariffs on China “will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.” Meantime, China’s foreign ministry said Beijing may be willing to discuss tariffs with the U.S. China is a major U.S. soybean importer. This apparent thawing in the U.S.-China trade war also prompted better risk appetite in the general marketplace today, which is also friendly for the grain markets. Gains in the soy complex were limited today by sharp gains in the U.S. dollar index and solid losses in crude oil prices.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in center-west and center-south Brazil as well as in most of the key U.S. corn and soybean producing areas over the next ten days “will be supportive of planting and production.” Argentina weather will be favorable for filling, maturing and harvesting of summer crops. Flooding in the lower U.S. Midwest and Delta “will linger for a while over the next ten days and additional rain is expected to add more delay to the planting of crops in many areas.”
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bull flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $10.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.20. First resistance is seen at the April high of $10.59 and then at $10.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.45 1/4 and then at $10.37 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $308.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $289.70. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at $305.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $298.50 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 49.46 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of 44.25 cents. First resistance is seen at the April high of 49.01 cents and then at 49.46 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 47.83 cents and then at 47.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $5.43 1/2 and settled near session lows. July HRW sank 8 cents to $5.50 1/4, near session lows. July spring wheat fell 3 1/4 cents to $6.07.
Fundamental outlook: Winter wheat futures continue to undergo selling pressure with HRW matching contract lows today. Selling pressure in corn, which is seeing a technical breakdown from the recent bull flag, is weighing on wheat futures. Rhetoric surrounding a potential ceasefire in Ukraine has led to some selling pressure but does not seem incredibly warranted. While negotiations have once again come to the forefront of traders’ minds, the probability of a ceasefire remains pretty low.
Reports that Trump is optimistic about a trade deal with China helped lift soy prices today. At this point in the soybean marketing year, it is unlikely China would boost much of their U.S. soybean sales, given ample supplies in Brazil. Instead, if a deal were to be struck, wheat seems like a likely benefactor. Asia is a popular destination for a lot of U.S. wheat exports, given favorable logistics. This bodes well for many of current U.S. negotiations, including Japan, the Korean Republic and India. If a deal is struck with any of these countries, wheat exports could quickly benefit and would be something to keep an eye out for.
Technical outlook: July SRW futures closed lower for the third consecutive session, rendering the technical advantage to the bears as prices continue to breakdown on the daily bar chart. Additional selling finds support at $5.41, though bears are ultimately targeting the contract low at $5.32 1/2. Resurgent strength has bulls looking to challenge the psychological $5.50 mark before tackling the 10-day moving average at $5.54.
July HRW futures continue to break down on the daily bar chart, challenging the contract low of $5.50 1/2 today. That marks initial support and is backed by support at $5.43 3/4. Bears hold the technical advantage and are seeking to hold resistance at $5.57 1/4 on a bounce. Strength above that mark targets the 10-day moving average at $5.66 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 181 points to 69.03 cents, nearer the daily and hit a two-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market got a boost today on better risk appetite in the general marketplace following news President Trump said the current 145% tariffs on China “will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Tuesday he believes a trade deal with Beijing can be reached. China’s foreign ministry also signaled Beijing may be willing to discuss tariffs with the U.S. A stronger U.S. dollar index today and lower crude oil prices did help push cotton prices down from daily highs.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend “will receive a limited amount of rain for a while. West Texas will receive some needed rain during mid-week this week and the weekend to improve planting moisture in May. Excessive soil moisture in the U.S. Delta is expected to prevail for a while, limiting field progress. The southeastern corner of the U.S. will see some of the best planting weather along with some areas in California and the southwestern desert region,” said the forecaster.
Cotton traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are starting to trend up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 69.60 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.18 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.