Corn
Price action: July corn rose 2 cents to $4.33 1/2, marking a near mid-range close.
Fundamental analysis: July corn firmed modestly as spillover strength reeled into the corn market. Favorable weather across the U.S. continues to keep a lid on corn prices, while rains in southern portions of center-south Brazil are expected to face improved production prospects amid recent and expected rains. However, areas of center-west Brazil have not seen much moisture and crop stress is expected to rise, according to World Weather Inc.
Demand for U.S. corn continues to prove rather robust amid a lower U.S. dollar and flailing prices. Earlier today, the Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged 1.109 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended June 13, which was down 11,0000 bpd (1.0%) from the previous week, which was a record, but still up 52,000 bpd (4.9%) from last year. Ethanol stocks rose 286,0000 barrels to 24.12 million barrels.
Markets and government offices will be closed tomorrow in honor of the Juneteenth federal holiday, delaying USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report until Friday. Analysts are expecting net sales ranging from 600,000 MT to 1.2 MMT during the week ended June 12. Last week, sales of 791,327 MT were reported for the previous week.
Technical analysis: July corn held an inside range in narrow trade as support held at last week’s low of $4.29 1/4, while the 10- and 20-day moving averages continued to stand as initial resistance. Bears continue to firmly grasp the near-term technical advantage and continue to look towards securing a close below $4.15, though first support lies at $4.29 ¼ and $4.25. Meanwhile, bulls’ target is to edge above resistance at $4.64 3/4, with first resistance at the 10-, 20-, 40 and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.37 1/4 to $4.62 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans climbed 3/4 cent to $10.74 3/4 and closed near mid-range. July meal fell 20 cents to $284.9. July bean oil inched 2 points lower to 54.77 cents.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex saw a quiet day of trade despite strong gains seen in the grain complex. Some consolidation near recent highs is healthy for July soybeans and prices maintaining recent strength is a bullish sign. How soybeans finish the week will be key, but continued volatile trade spilling over from continued geological strife could throw a wrench in things. Crush spreads continue to trade near recent highs as well following last week’s announcement of higher than expected biofuel obligations from EPA.
China’s move to curb the use of soymeal in animal feed to reduce its dependence on soybean imports is feasible but will be costly and technically challenging for smaller farmers who account for one-third of Chinese pork production, according to industry experts. This news comes at a somewhat precarious time considering the recent EPA announcement that will likely drive crush higher. While historically crush has been driven by the need for meal, it is now becoming driven by the need for soyoil. The U.S. will need to export additional crush to help offload added supplies.
USDA will release the weekly Export Sales report on Friday, delayed a day due to tomorrow’s federal holiday. A poll of analysts compiled by Reuters shows expectations for sales between 0 and 400,000 MT for old-crop and 0 to 200,000 MT for new-crop. Last week, sales totaled 61,394 MT and 58,086 MT, respectively.
Technical analysis: July soybeans saw action on either side of unchanged today as prices continue to trade sideways near recent highs. Bulls continue to maintain control of the near-term technical advantage. Additional strength looks to topple resistance at $10.80 before tackling the May 14 high of $10.82. Strength above there finds little resistance until key psychological resistance at $11.00. Initial support comes in at $10.69 3/4 on a turn lower, though bears are ultimately targeting a push below key support at $10.64, the 200-day moving average, on weakness.
July meal futures continue to consolidate near recent lows. Beas own full control of the technical advantage. Continued selling pressure has bears looking to close prices below psychological support at $285.00, while additional selling would target the contract low of $283.1. Meanwhile, resistance stands at today’s high of $287.5, while strength above that mark would have bulls eyeing resistance at $290.1, the 10-day moving average.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Advice: We advise all wheat producers to sell another 10% of 2025-crop to get to 30% sold in the cash market. We also advise selling an initial 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year.
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 25 1/4 cents to $5.74 1/4, near the session high and hit a nearly three-month high. July HRW wheat rose 23 1/2 cents to $5.71 1/4, near the daily high and hit a nearly three-month high. Spring wheat futures closed 15 1/2 cents higher at $6.46 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets were supported by technical buying today and from weather in U.S. wheat country that now leans a bit price-friendly. A weaker U.S. dollar index today also worked in favor of the speculative wheat market bulls, as has the recent rally in crude oil futures.
Krasnodar, one of Russia’s largest grain-producing regions, declared a state of emergency in eight drought-hit municipalities. Earlier in June, Rostov, another large grain-producing region, announced a state of emergency in 10 districts. Still, Russian officials expect the country to produce 135 MMT of grain, up from 130 MMT in 2024.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country net drying is expected across the region today into Sunday, with increasing heat and wind as a high pressure ridge builds in. “This will be great for the southeastern part of the region that has been too wet in the recent couple of months. However, it may be too late for some winter wheat crops.” Soil moisture is getting a little low in the farthest western counties. Some timely rain is expected in the west next week. “The bottom line is that conditions should involve improvement in the next seven to 10 days.” In the northern Plains, mostly favorable conditions are expected in the next ten days. Some light frost remains a possibility mainly in western production areas of Montana Monday morning. “This is unlikely to be much of an issue, but a close monitoring of the temperatures in this area will be warranted,” said World Weather.
Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (delayed by one day due to the holiday Thursday) is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 300,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage and have re-established price uptrends on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.22 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.75 and then at $5.85. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.17 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.75 and then at $5.85. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 10% of 2025-crop to get to 30% sold in the cash market. Also sell an initial 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Sell another 10% of 2025-crop to get to 30% sold. Also sell an initial 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 21 points to 64.84 cents, near mid-range and hit a nine-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw modest technical selling pressure today as a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been re-established. Some risk aversion is still present in the general marketplace, which also squelched the cotton market bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas rainfall “will be more limited over the next seven days, but crop improvements are likely because of recent rain.” Rain will return to the area later next week. Meantime, field conditions in portions of the Delta are still too wet and drier weather is expected over the next couple of weeks. Portions of the southeastern U.S. will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks.
Friday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report (delayed by one day due to the holiday Thursday) has bulls looking to see sales top last week’s sales figure which totaled 61,600 bales.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been choppy and sideways and there is strong chart support just below the market. A price downtrend has been re-established on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 66.85 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the March low of 63.80 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.70 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.45 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.