Corn
Price action: December corn rose 8 cents to $5.23 1/2, near the daily high and closed at a contract high close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market rallied again today, on important follow-through strength from Monday’s solid gains. USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 57% good to excellent as of Sunday, down three percentage points from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0-500 point scale, with 500 being perfect) the crop declined 2.52 points to 353.20, which is 28.39 points below year-ago at this time.
In other news, farmers in Brazil had planted 2% of their first corn crop as of late last week, compared to 3.2% last year, according to AgRural. Planting has started in Parana and Santa Catarina while wet conditions have slowed initial planting in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. There are no reports of corn being planted yet in Argentina.
World Weather Inc. today said warming is expected in the U.S. Midwest along with drier weather in a few of the areas that have excessive moisture. Western Europe crops are expecting some much-needed rain later this week into next week. Any rain that falls will not reverse the damage from summer drought but it should help curb the declining trend. Dryness will continue in the Balkan Countries and areas east through Ukraine to Russia’s Southern Region. Other areas in Europe have a better chance for getting a little more rain in the coming 10 days.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Monday’s gap-higher trade on the daily chart may be a “breakaway” gap that could mean still higher-price to come. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.24 1/4 and then at $5.30. First support is seen at $5.15 and then at this week’s low of $5.10 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 13 1/2 cents to $12.37 3/4, near the daily high. September soybean meal closed steady at $320.30, near mid-range and hit a three-week high. September soybean oil rose 39 points to 67.52 cents, near the daily high and hit a six-week low early on today.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw would be bargain-hunters step in to buy the overnight dips. This week’s solid rally in the corn futures market is also supporting some buying interest in the soybean complex. Also price-friendly, USDA this morning reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations in the 2026-27 marketing year.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 60% good to excellent, down a point from the previous week. On our CCI, the crop declined 2.96 points to 358.99, which is 14.93 points behind last year.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers will occur through the next two weeks, with most areas seeing rain that is too infrequent and light to prevent net drying which will improve conditions for soybeans in the wetter areas while reducing concerns over early harvest delays. Some of the drier areas in the northwestern Corn Belt will benefit from rain. Most soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt will benefit from rain during the next week and some small increases in yields are likely but with the rain too late for a major boost in production.
Technical analysis: The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $11.65 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.39 1/2 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.16 1/4 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $323.50 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $318.10 and then at this week’s low of $316.60.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 71.90 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 65.70 cents and then at 65.42 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 3 3/4 cents to $7.03 1/4, nearer the daily high and closed at a four-week high close. December HRW gained 3 1/2 cents to $7.70 3/4, near the daily high. December spring wheat fell 1 1/4 to $7.20.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw modest buying interest today amid the solid rally in the corn futures market and gains in the soybean complex futures. Ongoing grain supply disruptions out of the Black Sea region remain an underlying bullish element for the wheat markets. Russia is considering scrapping its grain export duty as exports face disruption from amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The government is rumored to be discussing suspending the duty at least until the end of the year.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 5% good to excellent, down one point from the previous week. Our CCI declined 3.86 points on the week and currently sits 6.43 points behind year-ago.
World weather today said and “summer crop stress has been horrific in the southern Plains recently, with persistent excessive heat and no rain. Production cuts are common and grazing grass is quite limited.” The hot weather will be briefly disrupted by some cooler air Wednesday into Friday but the excessive heat will resume during the weekend. Not much rain is likely in the hottest areas of the south, although a few showers will be possible Wednesday through Friday during the temporary cooling period. Showers and thunderstorms will occur a little more often in eastern Colorado, the northwestern Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska in the coming week to ten days. The moisture will help slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed to induce a lasting boost in topsoil moisture. Wheat planting usually begins in the southwestern Plains in the first days of September and that process may be slowed by the region’s heat and dryness. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to slightly warmer than normal temperatures. Dry conditions will benefit spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need more rainfall in the coming weeks before winter wheat planting begins.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW, but stiff resistance levels lie just overhead. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.28 1/4, which is the contract high. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $6.45 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.15 and then at $7.28 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.85 and then at $6.75.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.92 3/4, which is the contract high. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $7.12. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.86 1/4 and then at $7.92 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.47 1/4 and then at $7.35.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 50 points to 88.33 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw some routine profit-taking pressure today, following recent good gains. Gains in the grain futures markets today somewhat limited selling interest in cotton futures. Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 29% poor to very poor condition, 34% fair and 37% in good to excellent condition, as of Sunday. The crop was 20% bolls opening and 81% setting bolls.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least most of the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Much of the region will benefit from at least some rain into Thursday with a brief reprieve from the heat Wednesday and Thursday in central and northern areas. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 92.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 85.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 89.45 cents and then at 90.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 87.05 cents and then at 86.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.