Corn
Price action: December corn rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.75 1/4, near the daily high and closed at a seven-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw renewed speculator and chart-based buying interest as a heat wave has enveloped the Plains states for the past 10 day, spreading into the far western Corn Belt. The near-term chart posture for the corn futures market remains bullish.
USDA this week rated the U.S. corn crop 67% good to excellent as of Sunday, down one-percentage point from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale with 500 being perfect), the crop declined 0.99 point.
Crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.0 bu. to 181.0 bu. per acre and holds a neutral to lower bias going forward. He noted near record temps last week across most of the northern Corn Belt and limited rainfall, along with high daytime and nighttime temps are probably trimming potential yields.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for corn pollination and yield potentials should be high in most areas into the first week of August, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt, where low soil moisture and periods of heat will stress crops. The eastern Dakotas and northeastern and east-central Nebraska into northwestern Iowa and western Minnesota should see the poorest conditions for crops as soil moisture there is mostly marginal to short and the region will not see much rain of significance through at least the next ten days. Temperatures will not be hot through the period, but heat will stress crops in parts of the region Saturday into Monday.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.85. First support is seen at $4.68 1/4 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 1/2 cents to $12.22 3/4, near mid-range. September soybean meal rose $3.10 to $324.30, near the daily high and hit a two-month high. September soybean oil fell 41 points to 73.41 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw a pause today. Meal and bean oil were impacted by the spread traders buying meal and selling bean oil. Selling interest was limited today as weather in the Midwest is heating up and somewhat drying out for late July.
USDA this week rated the U.S. soybean crop as 66% good to excellent as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week. On our CCI, the crop rating improved 2.11 points on the week. The largest increases were in Iowa and Illinois.
Meantime, Dr. Cordonnier, lowered his U.S. soybean production estimate by 0.5 bu. to 52.0 bu. per acre and holds a neutral to lower bias going forward. He notes, “The area of greatest concern is lingering dryness in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and part of southern North Dakota.”
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern corn and soybean Belt over the next 10 days, resulting in some concern over yield potential. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.73 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.32 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.07 1/2 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the May high of $328.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $311.10. First resistance comes in at $328.40 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at this week’s low of $316.70.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 74.60 cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at 72.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 4 cents to $6.78, near the daily high. September HRW rose 9 1/4 cents to $7.33, near the daily high and closed at a nine-week high close. September spring wheat futures rose 12 cents to $7.04 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw mixed trade early today, with mild profit taking, but the bulls stepped in to buy the dips – a sign the winter wheat market bulls are still confident.
USDA this week rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 53% good to excellent, down 5 percentage points from the previous week. Our CCI rating declined 7.86 points.
SovEcon cut its forecast for the Russian wheat crop this year to 88.3 MMT, down from 88.9 MMT, citing weaker prospects in the south of the country and a smaller spring wheat area.
World weather today said good harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays. Spring wheat areas in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing some yield potential. The lack of rain and continued warm-to-hot weather over the next 10 days will perpetuate this trend. Meanwhile, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next 10 days. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.29 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.92 1/4 and then at 7.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.65 1/4 and then at $6.50.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the May high of $7.58. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.59 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.40 1/2 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.17 1/2 and then at $7.11 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 150 points to 80.42 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw renewed technical buying today to keep the price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace today was also a positive for the cotton market, evidenced by the rally in the U.S. stock indexes.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 18% poor to very poor condition, 37% fair, and 45% in good to excellent condition, as of Sunday. The crop was 73% squaring and 32% setting bolls.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place. Areas that received significant rain recently will have enough soil moisture to support dryland cotton for a while longer as the soil dries down while the many areas that failed to receive significant rain will see increasing crop stress. A close watch will be made on July 31-Aug. 1, when showers may become better organized with confidence low for this event. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell last week in the Blacklands and the central and northern Coastal Bend. South Texas and the southern Coastal Bend missed much of the significant rain and should see rising levels of crop stress through the period.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 81.00 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.73 cents and then at last week’s low of 77.73 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.