Corn
Price action: December corn fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.29, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation today as prices have moved down to the lower boundary of the three-week-old trading range at elevated levels. The market feels heavy at present. A rally in the U.S. dollar index today to a nearly three-month high was a bearish outside-market element for the grains.
Corn bulls got no traction from USDA this morning reporting daily U.S. corn sales of 100,000 MT to Mexico during 2026-27.
Grain trade association Coceral cut its forecast sharply for this year’s corn output in the European Union earlier today to 48.6 MMT, down from 52.7 MMT in July.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. corn sales of 500,000 to 1.6 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will return to west-central and northwestern Midwest areas later today, while most other areas west of the Mississippi River are dry and see some harvesting before wet weather Thursday into next Tuesday slows fieldwork, with some heavy rain from eastern Nebraska and nearby areas into south-central Iowa and north-central Missouri Thursday into Saturday. Much of Iowa and some nearby areas already have nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding may result from rain later this week and with follow-up rain early next week, delays to fieldwork will be extended deeper into October. Today’s forecast includes less rain for Oct. 2-7 and much of the region will dry down and see steady improvements in conditions for fieldwork. Areas east of the Mississippi River will see quickly improving conditions for fieldwork during the next several days as little rain is expected through Monday, with today’s forecast wetter than what was advertised earlier this week for Tuesday into Thursday of next week when rain spreads across the region. Soil moisture is still short from southern Illinois into Kentucky where rapid harvesting will occur.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the September low of $5.23 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 7 1/2 cents to $13.18, near mid-range. December soybean meal lost $0.10 to $370.60, near mid-range. December soybean oil fell 11 points to 67.81 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market was pressured today by profit taking and weak long liquidation from the speculators as well as a strong U.S. dollar index that hit a nearly two-month high today.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping touches down in Washington today it will mark three years since he last visited the U.S. His much-anticipated summit with President Trump “will offer the leaders of the world’s two largest economies a chance to improve personal ties and look for common ground on contentious topics including trade, artificial intelligence, the Iran war and the future of Taiwan,” said Bloomberg. Soybean traders will be watching the event closely for any comments on more China purchases of U.S. beans.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 500,000 to 2 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rainfall in the northern Midwest disrupted fieldwork and some of the wetter areas will need a few days of drying, especially in the wettest areas from northern Missouri and Iowa into Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. Another wave of rain is possible late this week into early next week across some of these same areas keeping fieldwork sluggish. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil led to some earlier than usual planting of soybeans. Center-west has been drying recently and that may continue for a while depleting soil moisture and stressing any early planted and emerged crops. Center-west may not see much moisture of significance for a while which could lead to some replanting.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.35 1/4 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s low of $12.92.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $374.20 and then at $378.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $365.90 and then at $360.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.20 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 8 3/4 cents to $7.08 1/2, near mid-range and hit a nearly four-week low. December HRW fell 9 1/2 cents to $7.71 3/4, near mid-range and also hit a nearly four-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 7 1/2 cents to $7.28 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling pressure and weak long liquidation today as both SRW and HRW are in price downtrends. The U.S. dollar index today hit a nearly three-month high, which was a bearish outside-market element for the wheat markets.
Top wheat importers in Asia, the Middle East and Africa that were counting on the Black Sea region for wheat have been finding it hard to secure supplies, as attacks on vessels and port infrastructure have brought cargo movements to a near standstill since July, Reuters reports. Most global importers have held off making alternative purchases, hoping for an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but local supplies are running thin, especially in Asia.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 550,000 MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said relief to months of hot, dry weather is coming to the southern Plains late this week through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase soil moisture from the southwestern Plains into Nebraska and temperatures will be mild to warm. Improved winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment conditions are likely as time moves along during the next two weeks. Summer crop harvesting may be slowed by increasing rainfall next week and the following week, although some progress is anticipated. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across portions of the crop region, alongside seasonable to slightly warmer than usual temperatures. Rainfall will inhibit fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $7.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.85. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.17 3/4 and then at last week’s high of $7.36. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.85.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen today’s high of $7.81 3/4 and then at $8.00. First support is seen at $7.60 and then at $7.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 2 points to 82.89 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a corrective rebound today amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Gains were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar index today that hit a nearly two-month high. A sell off in the U.S. stock market today also kept cotton buyers mostly timid.
Cotton traders will be closely watching the Trump-Xi summit that begins this evening. Bulls are hoping China may buy more U.S. cotton if trade relations between the two countries improve.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said Texas will have more frequent opportunities for rain in the next two weeks, but that may raise some fiber quality issues and a close watch on the precipitation distribution will be warranted. The U.S. Delta and Texas Blacklands have been too hot and mostly dry recently, stressing some crops. Cooling is likely this week and there may eventually be a few showers. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Meantime, Australia cotton-planting should be getting started in a few irrigated areas. Excessive heat and dryness will restrict dryland planting later this year.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices still trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 88.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 83.96 and then at 84.50 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 80.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.