Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.15 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw short covering and perceived bargain buying. The high-range close today does begin to hint the bears may now be exhausted. Continued very good overall corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present remains the main bearish element in the corn futures market. Today’s big downdraft in crude oil prices to a two-month low did limit buying interest in corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.637 MMT during the week ended June 11, down 377,241 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 1.5 MMT to 2.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today corn yield potential will remain very high through the next two weeks as the Midwest will see a week of regular rain and mild temperatures, leaving much of the region with moist soils that will favorably support crop development when drier weather occurs June 23-29. Some flooding will likely result from bands of heavy rain during the next week with the drier weather expected June 23-29, important in allowing rivers and streams to recede before flooding becomes serious. A close watch will be made on the rainfall distribution in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt, where the topsoil has firmed up.
Today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 68% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 67% in the same condition last week and 72% one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.20 and then at $4.25. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.06 1/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 5 3/4 cents to $11.19 1/4, near the daily high after hitting a four-month low overnight. July soybean meal rose $0.70 to $302.00, nearer the daily low and hit a four-month low overnight. July soybean oil rose 9 points to 74.37 cents, near the daily high and hit a five-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today but gains were limited by still-good growing weather in most of the Midwest. Sharp losses in crude oil today also kept the buyers in the soybean complex somewhat timid.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. export inspections totaled 522,687 MT during the week ended June 11, up 110,565 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 345,000 to 600,000 MT.
Today’s NOPA crush report implies a monthly crush around 215 million bushels in May, which would be a record for the month. We were surprised to see crush fall like it did, as the daily rate of 6.735 million bushels/day was down from 7.062 million bushels per day in April. The record of 7.457 million bushels per day stands alone with no other month coming close yet. Soyoil consumption totaled 2.653 billion lbs, the most since March and the second highest total ever.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to get enough showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks to maintain good crop development conditions. A part of the lower Delta may get too wet, while portions of the southeastern states get needed rain.
Today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 66% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 65% in the same condition last week and 66% one year ago at the same time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily chart. However, the market is still somewhat short-term oversold and overdue for a corrective bounce. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.29 3/4 and then at $11.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.02 1/2 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $305.00 and then at last week’s high of $309.20. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 79.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 72.37 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 5 1/4 cents to $5.89 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a four-month low early on. July HRW gained 5 1/2 cents to $6.40, nearer the daily high. September spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.39 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and some bargain buying today, following recent losses. Gains were somewhat limited by a big sell off in the crude oil market that hit a two-month low.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 334,292 MT during the week ended June 11, up 10,974 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were short of the expected pre-report range of 350,000 to 550,000 MT.
Romania, one of the European Union’s largest wheat exporters, could harvest a record wheat crop of 13.86 MMT this year if moderate rain continues and storm damage remains limited ahead of harvest, according to commodity analysis firm, Argus.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, periodic showers and thunderstorms will impact hard red winter wheat areas during the next two weeks, benefiting summer crops more than wheat. The precipitation will be good for late-season wheat development and especially helpful to dryland summer grain, oilseeds and cotton. Temperatures will be cool this week, conserving soil moisture and supporting good crop development rates. Warming is expected again after day 10. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun, alongside generally cooler biased temperatures this coming week, will aid in maintaining soil conditions and supporting crop development across the crop region.
Today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 25% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 25% in the same condition last week and 52% one year ago at the same time. Winter wheat harvested is seen at 19% complete as of Sunday. U.S. spring wheat is seen in 53% good to excellent condition versus 52% last week and compares to 57% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.00 1/4 and then at $6.10 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.71 and then at $5.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.45 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.21 1/2 and then at the June low of $6.14.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 49 points to 73.43 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw another corrective bounce today following recent selling pressure. A rally in the U.S. stock indexes and a weaker dollar index today prompted some buying interest in cotton. However, a sell off in the crude oil futures market today did limit the upside in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see some showers during the next two weeks, but resulting rain is not likely to be great enough to induce more than temporary increases in soil moisture and conditions for dryland cotton will be mostly poor outside of pockets that received significant rain recently. Much of the western Panhandle to central and western parts of west Texas will receive up to 0.30” of rain and locally more today, while a few light showers occur elsewhere before much of west Texas and southwestern Oklahoma receive up to 0.40” and locally more Thursday into Friday. Dry weather will be most common Saturday through June 29 with a few showers on occasion and the Panhandle wettest most often. Meantime, a tropical disturbance will bring heavy rain and flooding to Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend today into Wednesday, leaving the region with abundant soil moisture that will support cotton development into at least early July. Rain into Wednesday will be greatest in the Coastal Bend and South Texas where totals will be 3.0-6.0” and locally more.
Today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will be closely monitored by cotton traders.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 74.00 cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at 72.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 70.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.