Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 1/2 cents to $4.42 1/2, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw fresh technical selling pressure. Bulls quickly lost traction after a price-friendly USDA monthly supply and demand report Tuesday. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to another 1.5-year high today also prompted selling interest in corn futures.
Weekly USDA export sales data will be out Friday because of the Veteran’s Day holiday this week. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts expects U.S. corn sales of 1 million to 3.6 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said timely rainfall will occur in many Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay locations as well as in Bolivia during the next two weeks. The rain intensity will vary greatly and some areas will still have need for greater moisture but crop development should advance well. U.S. and southeastern Canada late-season harvesting will advance relatively well around brief periods of precipitation during the next 10 days.
Technical analysis: December corn sees a price downtrend on the daily chart in jeopardy but still in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.60. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the June low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $4.50 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $4.55 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.38 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans lost 11 3/4 cents to $12.19, near the daily low. December soybean meal fell $4.30 to $325.40, near the daily low. December soybean oil lost 46 points to 63.42 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw selling pressure today amid a rally in the U.S. dollar index to another 1.5-year high today. Some fresh technical selling was also featured in the complex. Bulls got no traction from USDA reporting daily sales of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27.
The scandal surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s affair with a suspected Chinese spy and his resignation matters for ag commodities because it poses a risk to U.S.-China trade relations. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that preparations for Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s third summit meeting of the year with President Donald Trump were going off course due to the spy allegations.
Weekly USDA export sales data will be out Friday because of the Veteran’s Day holiday this week. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts expects U.S. soybean sales of 800,000 to 2 million MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said planting will be slowed by rain the next two weeks in Brazil and Paraguay but with some opportunities for farming activity during the drier periods. Many areas from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to central and northern Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo remain in need of rain to improve conditions for summer crop development and will benefit from regular rain through the next two weeks., Argentina will see a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed at times, but breaks between rounds of rain should allow farming activity to advance well overall. Nearly all of that country will be left with favorable soil moisture to support crop development by Monday, with favorable conditions expected to continue into at least late this month.
Technical analysis: January soybeans have seen a price downtrend on the daily bar chart at least temporarily negated to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $11.84. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.36 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at $12.15 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal futures have also seen a price downtrend on the daily bar chart at least temporarily negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $345.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $315.20. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $330.00 and then at $333.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $323.40 and then at Tuesday’s low of $319.10.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 67.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.09 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 62.68 and then at last week’s low of 61.34 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 15 1/4 cents to $5.84 1/4, near the session low and hit an eight-month low. December HRW lost 17 1/4 cents to $6.22 1/4, near the daily low and hit an eight-month low. December spring wheat futures fell 12 3/4 cents to $6.22 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw renewed technical selling today as prices remain trapped in downtrends on their daily bar charts. Buying interest in wheat futures today was also squelched by a rally in the U.S. dollar index to another 1.5-year high.
U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the BBC reported, a day after U.S.-mediated talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine concluded in Abu Dhabi.
Ukraine grain stocks at the start of the 2027-28 marketing year could reach a record 30 MMT, compared to 10 MMT as of July 1, 2026, due to blocked Ukrainian ports, according to its farm minister Taras Vysotskiy earlier today.
Weekly USDA export sales data will be out Friday morning because of the Veteran’s Day holiday this week. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts expects U.S. wheat sales of 350,00 to 650,000 MT in all marketing years.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. winter grains are establishing well in the central and southern Plains despite some lingering dryness. Midwestern crops are also establishing well, though some rain is needed in the south and also into the Delta and Tennessee River Basin. The Pacific Northwest is still dealing with drought, but increasing rain and snow in the Cascade and northern Rocky Mountains may improve water supply in the spring if a wetter than usual bias can prevail this winter. Meantime, winter dormancy is setting into crops in eastern Europe and the FSU. Winter crops in some of this region are not as well established as they should be. Precipitation coming in the next two weeks will improve the moisture profile, but crop establishment changes may be delayed until spring.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.03 3/4 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at the November low of $5.85 and then at $5.75.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.41 and then at this week’s high of $6.49 1/2. First support is seen at the November low of $6.22 and then at $6.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 15 points to 78.67 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a pause today. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to another 1.5-year high today limited buying interest in cotton. Losses in cotton were limited by a stabilization in the U.S. stock market late this week.
Weekly USDA export sales will be out Friday morning due to the Veteran’s Day holiday this week.
World Weather Inc. today said harvest weather remains mostly good in the Delta and southeastern states. Recent rain in southern Texas began to improve soil moisture for spring planting but much more is needed. West Texas also benefited from some rain earlier this season and more is needed, but until the harvest is complete it might be best for dry conditions to prevail Coming rain to California and Arizona may lift topsoil moisture for a few cotton areas.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 79.90 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.50 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.