Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 3 1/4 cent to $4.40 1/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some short covering and perceived bargain buying early on today but could not hold those gains into the close, as soybeans sold off and wheat came well off its daily highs.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.78 MMT during the week ended April 9. Net inspections were down 269,890 from the previous week, but within analyst’s pre-report expectations, which ranged from 1.5 MMT to 1.825 MMT. Corn inspections are running 34% ahead of year-ago at this time.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the weekend was greatest from eastern Kansas to Wisconsin, where most areas received 0.22 to 1.21 inches with local totals to 1.60 inches and some pockets of lighter rain. Most other areas were dry or received light enough rain that conditions for fieldwork improved and some planting likely occurred in the south. Regular rounds of precipitation into early next Sunday will limit, but not prevent, fieldwork with the moisture welcome in some of the remaining dry areas while the persistent dry area from northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota to southwestern Minnesota will miss most of the significant precipitation.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.60. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.46 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at last week’s low of $4.38.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 13 1/2 cents to $11.62 1/4, near the daily low after hitting a nearly four-week high early on. May soybean meal rose $0.10 to $331.90, near mid-range and hit a five-month high early on. May soybean oil lost 59 points to 66.50 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets today saw selling pressure after President Trump threatened to slap 50% tariffs on China’s exports to the U.S. after receiving intelligence that China is ready to sell big military hardware to Iran.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 814,562 during the week ended April 9. Net inspections rose 9,670 MT from the previous week and were within pre-report expectations, which ranged from 400,000 MT to 1.365 MMT. Soybean inspections are trailing year-ago totals by 25.2%.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 87% of their 2025-26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said early planting in the U.S. will be excellent in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states. However, dryness will slow down emergence and establishment in many areas. Planting in the Midwest will be slowed due to frequent rain and wet field conditions.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.83 3/4 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.60 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November 2025 high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $337.50 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at today’s low of $327.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.49 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.83 cents and then at 69.27 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 66.22 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 11 1/4 cents to $5.82 1/4, near mid-range. May HRW gained 12 1/2 cents to $6.03 1/4, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures rose 13 cents to $6.24 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today after prices hit five-week lows last Friday.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 320,797 MT for the week ended April 9. Net inspections were down 22,087 MT from the previous week, but were within the expected range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT. Wheat inspections are running 14.6% ahead of year-ago at this time.
Argus lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop after cutting its harvested area projection, but the outlook remained the highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and above the four-year average, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian APK-Inform agriculture consultancy revised its forecast for the 2026 grain harvest down to 58.2 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 58.6 MMT and down from the 2025 harvest of 61.1 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said concern about the lack of rain in the U.S. western hard red winter wheat areas during the weekend and that combined with a poor precipitation outlook will be a concern for producers and traders. Wheat in the Midwest has been and will continue in better shape than that in some areas in the central and southwestern Plains.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.60. First resistance is seen at $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.76 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $5.67 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.48 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.15 1/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.97 1/2 and then at $5.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 131 points to 74.53 cents, near the session high and hit another 12-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying featured today. Some improved risk appetite in the general marketplace also supported buying interest in cotton futures. Solidly higher crude oil prices also worked in favor of the cotton market bulls today.
Traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. southern Plains, although rain was nearly widespread during the weekend and fieldwork was interrupted, few locations received enough rain to do more than temporarily boost topsoil moisture with exceptions in parts of the central and northern Blacklands, a few locations in the Coastal Bend, and a part of the interior northwestern Panhandle. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the soil from drying out again leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. The Blacklands will see regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and although most of the rain should not be heavy, soil moisture in place and at least some occasional rain should support cotton germination, establishment, and development with some exceptions in the south where soil moisture is still short. The Coastal Bend and south Texas will see infrequent showers during the next two weeks and conditions for cotton will deteriorate as the soil dries out.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 76.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 75.50 cents. First support is seen at 73.50 cents and then at today’s low of 72.65 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.