Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 7 1/4 cents to $4.21, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw good short covering and perceived bargain hunting from the speculators. Still, very good overall corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present may limit further upside in corn. However, the corn bulls are now reckoning the price-bearish weather conditions at present, as well as the extended weather forecasts into early July, have been fully factored into futures prices.
U.S. ethanol production during the week ended June 12 averaged 1.102 million barrels per day, that was down 0.5% from the previous week and 0.6% from year-ago. Ethanol stocks were steady on the week at 24.474 million barrels.
World Weather Inc. today said corn yield potential will remain very high through the next two weeks as the Midwest will see regular rain through most of the period and mild temperatures through at least most of the next week, leaving much of the region with moist soils that will favorably support crop development into at least early July. Some flooding will likely result from bands of heavy rain into Monday in areas outside of eastern North Dakota to east-central South Dakota to northern Wisconsin with less frequent rain expected Tuesday into July 1 important in allowing rivers and streams to recede before flooding becomes serious. A close watch will be made on the rainfall distribution in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt, where many areas are still in need of rain to ensure crops have adequate soil moisture if drier weather were to evolve.
Corn traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.12 1/4 and then at Monday’s contract low of $4.06 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 2 cents to $11.32, near mid-range and hit a two-week high. July soybean meal closed steady at $304.80, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil fell 138 points to 71.54 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw a third session in a row of prices gains, which begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 372,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26 and 312,000 MT is for 2026-27. There have been rumors this week that the Chinese are looking to book more U.S. soybeans. Further gains could be limited by very good growing weather in most of the Midwest. Soybean bulls are reckoning the price-bearish weather in the Midwest has now already been factored into futures prices.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to get enough showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks to maintain good crop development conditions. A part of the lower Delta may get too wet while portions of the Southeastern States get needed rain. Some relief to dryness will occur over time in South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, although it will be a gradual process with follow-up rain needed.
Soybean traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart has been negated, which is another clue that a market bottom is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.40 1/2 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at $11.20 and then at this week’s low of $11.02 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $308.90 and then at $312.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and now prices are starting to trend down. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 79.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 67.50 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 73.30 cents and then at 75.00 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 16 3/4 cents to $6.12 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week high. July HRW gained 18 3/4 cents to $6.52 1/2, near the daily high and hit a three-week high. September spring wheat futures rose 13 1/4 to $6.48 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw solid short covering and some fresh technical buying today, as price downtrends on the daily bar charts have been negated and prices are now starting to trend up, to suggest the bears are exhausted and that near-term market bottoms are now in place.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, periodic showers and thunderstorms will impact hard red winter wheat areas during the next two weeks, benefiting summer crops more than wheat. The precipitation will be good for late-season wheat development and especially helpful to dryland summer grain, oilseeds and cotton. Temperatures will be cool this week, conserving soil moisture and supporting good crop development rates. Warming is expected again after day 10.
Wheat traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have lost their overall near-term technical advantage in both SRW and HRW markets. Prices are starting to trend up on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $5.71. First resistance is seen at $6.15 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.93 1/2 and then at $5.80.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.14. First resistance is seen at $6.60 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.32 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $6.21 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 189 points to 76.90 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures bulls are back in business at mid-week. Heavy short covering and perceived bargain hunting were featured today. Cotton bulls are being supported by U.S. stock indexes that are at or near their recent record highs. However, gains in cotton futures were tempered late in the session after the FOMC minutes that left U.S. monetary policy unchanged but leaned surprisingly hawkish in the FOMC statement. That news prompted selling pressure in the U.S. stock indexes.
World Weather Inc. today said cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will have opportunities for rain Thursday into Friday and again Monday into Wednesday of next week and cotton should briefly benefit from the moisture. However, early indications suggest the rain will be too light to induce lasting improvements in soil moisture. Dry weather will be most common Saturday through July 1 with a few showers on occasion and better-organized rain Monday into next Wednesday. Confidence is low for rain Monday into next Wednesday and if that event occurs as expected rain will be light enough that dryland areas will need follow-up rain soon. A drier weather pattern will occur during the next two weeks in south Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend, where recent rain has left the soil moist enough to favorably support cotton development through the period. Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will slow drying rates allowing cotton to develop with adequate soil moisture deeper into July.
Cotton traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures see a downtrend on the daily bar chart in serious jeopardy now. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 75.40 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.67 cents and then at the June low of 70.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.