Corn
Price action: December corn fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.30 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more profit-taking pressure and some weak long liquidation today from the shorter-term futures traders. Lower crude oil prices today were also a negative for the corn market. This week’s rally in the U.S. dollar index to a six-week high is also a negative for corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.027 MMT during the week ended Sept. 10. Analysts expected net sales to range from 700,000 MT to 2.0 MMT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2026-27 global corn production by 4 MMT to 1.301 billion metric tons amid cuts to U.S. and EU production.
World Weather Inc. today said wetter weather in the northern U.S. Corn Belt and additional moisture in the west-central production areas will help fix long-term moisture deficits, but delaying early harvest progress. Meantime, this year’s dryness in France, the U.K. and southeastern Europe has cut into summer crop production. Some of that dryness has extended into Russia’s Southern region, as well. Mexico’s monsoon is expected to bring some beneficial moisture to corn and sorghum production areas in the west, but below normal rainfall is likely in the northeast. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil may lead to earlier than usual planting of first season corn.
Technical analysis: Corn market still bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out and bulls appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.44. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.23 1/4 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $13.19 3/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal rose $5.70 to $371.30, nearer the daily high and hit another 2.5-year high for the contract. December soybean oil fell 52 points to 69.15 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex markets saw a pause today. Meal is the standout performer in the grain markets this week, as reports said domestic end-users have become short-bought. Spreaders were featured buying meal and selling bean oil today. Another drop in crude oil prices today also limited buying interest in soybeans and bean oil.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 1.702 MMT during the week ended Sept. 10. Analysts expected net sales to range from 900,000 MT to 2.4 MMT, according to a Reuters poll.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through next Tuesday and although fieldwork will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south rain should be infrequent enough to allow harvesting to advance well overall. At least some additional rain in the southwestern and south-central Midwest will induce beneficial increases in soil moisture. Some heavy rain and a significant bolstering of soil moisture will occur from eastern South Dakota and Iowa to Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Ohio today into Saturday and some local flooding may result. Additional rain in a large part of that region Sunday into Tuesday may cause increase flooding. Drier weather will resume next Wednesday into Oct. 1 and that will be important where heavy rain falls into early next week.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.35 1/4 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at this week’s low of $12.92.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a downside correction very soon. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $374.20 and then at $378.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $364.60 and then at $360.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 71.09 cents and then at last week’s high of 72.23 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 68.23 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 3/4 cents to $7.27, near mid-range. December HRW lost 5 cents to $7.94 1/2, nearer the session low. December spring wheat futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $7.52 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit taking and weak long liquidation. Lower crude oil prices again today also limited buying interest in wheat futures. This week’s rally in the U.S. dollar index to a six-week high is also a negative for wheat. Selling interest was limited in wheat futures today as Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s infrastructure. Russia has damaged a bridge in the Odesa region, significantly limiting Ukraine’s ability to transport grain to its Danube river ports, Ukrainian state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia said.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 325,900 MT during the week ended Sept. 10, up 68% from the previous week and unchanged from the four-week average. Analysts expected net sales to range from 150,000 to 500,000 MT, according to a Reuters poll.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2026-27 world wheat crop outlook by 3 MMT to 820 MMT, driven by upward revisions for Australia and Ukraine.
World weather today said rain is needed in winter wheat production areas in the U.S. Plains, western and southeastern Europe, Ukraine and Russia’s southern Region, but there is plenty of time for this to evolve. There may eventually be a need for greater rain in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. Australia’s wheat and barley is still rated well in the south while that in Queensland and northern New South Wales will likely underperform this year because of El Nino heat and dryness. Some rain has fallen recently in parts of the central U.S. Plains, Ukraine and northern parts of Russia’s Southern Region, although more is needed. The needed rain should evolve in a timely manner. Argentina’s wheat is well established and a little rain would be welcome.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW are in jeopardy of being negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $7.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.85. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.36 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.10 and then at $7.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.10 and then at $8.20. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.78 1/4 and then at $7.65.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 219 points to 82.17 cents, near the session low and hit a five-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw weak long liquidation and fresh technical selling from the speculators today, as the near-term chart posture has turned bearish. This week’s rally in the U.S. dollar index to a six-week high is also a negative for cotton.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report show sales of U.S. cotton totaling 71,200 RB for 2026/2027, down 4 percent from the previous week and off 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (28,200 RB), Guatemala (14,000 RB) and Pakistan (7,500 RB). Exports of 142,100 RB were down 20 percent from the previous week and down 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (44,600 RB), Pakistan (24,700 RB) and India (18,000 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas will have additional opportunities for rain, especially next week but that may raise some fiber quality issues and a close watch on the precipitation distribution will be warranted. The U.S. Delta has been too hot and mostly dry recently and significant change may not occur anytime soon. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Xinjiang, China weather will be mostly good for crop maturation and some early season harvesting. No frost or freeze event is expected for a while and showers will be rare. India’s early season northern crop and that of Pakistan likely yielded well this year. Harvesting of that early crop will begin later this month.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 88.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 84.36 and then at this week’s high of 86.51 cents. First support is seen at 81.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.