Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.07, near the daily low and closed at a contract low close again today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw selling interest amid very good overall growing weather in the Corn Belt at present. Extended weather forecasts into early July show no threatening dry or hot weather. A strong U.S. dollar index that hit another 13-month high overnight and lower crude oil prices were bearish outside-market elements for the corn market again today.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest a transition of regular rain and mild temperatures to a warmer and drier weather pattern will occur this weekend into next week, with soil moisture in place and expected rain adequate in favorably supporting corn pollination and other crop development through early July and likely longer, while production potentials will remain very high. A ridge of high pressure will impact the Midwest this weekend into early July, but the ridge will not be centered on the Midwest during most of the period and there will be showers most days that will slow drying rates and will help to keep humidity high enough that excessive heat does not evolve right away. A close watch will continue on the rainfall distribution in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt, where many areas are still in need of rain to ensure crops have adequate soil moisture when drier weather occurs in early July.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.14 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $4.22. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.06 1/4 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 8 1/4 cents to $11.08 3/4, near the daily low. July soybean meal rose $0.70 to $303.60, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil lost 113 points to 69.46 cents, near the daily low and closed at a three-month-low close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal bulls saw overnight and early-session price gains erode as the day progressed. Very good growing conditions in the Midwest amid no threats on the horizon, a strong rally in the U.S. dollar index to a 13-month high today and the big sell off in the crude oil futures market that today saw WTI prices drop below $70 a barrel intra-day, all worked to stymie buying interest in the soybean complex futures.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to get enough showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks to maintain good crop development conditions. Some partial relief to dryness will occur over time in South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, although more rain will be needed.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart has at least stalled out. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.30 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $11.40 1/2. First support is seen at the June low of $11.02 1/2 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $306.90 and then at $308.90. First support is seen at the June low of $299.20 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil sees prices now trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 79.69 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 71.50 cents and then at 72.50 cents. First support is seen at the June low of 68.00 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 1 cent to $5.85 3/4, near the daily low. July HRW fell 1 cent to $6.17 1/4, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. September spring wheat futures fell 3/4 cent to $6.16 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some tepid short covering early on but gains were erased by the close amid weaker corn and soybean prices today. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high again today and lower crude oil prices that hit a three-month low below $70 overnight were also bearish outside-market elements for the winter wheat futures.
World Weather today said U.S. wheat areas in the Plains and Midwest will slowly trend warmer after recent cool conditions, and precipitation is expected to continue frequently enough to maintain some concern over grain quality. Rain is needed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and portions of the interior northern Plains. Portions of eastern and western Canada’s Prairies are too wet, while central areas might benefit from a rainfall boost. Drying may also be needed soon in Ontario and Quebec. Meantime, portions of France are too dry and hot and rain is needed. A ridge of high pressure aloft over the region this week will perpetuate below normal rainfall and warmer than usual temperatures. The heat and dryness are expanding into central Europe, although it is not nearly as dry in those areas as it is in France. Relief to dryness is possible this weekend in France in central Europe next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.71. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.83 1/4 and then at $5.71.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.57 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $6.37 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $6.48 1/4. First support is seen at the June low of $6.14 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 187 points to 72.09 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw strong technical selling today. A stronger U.S. dollar index that hit a 13-month high today and lower WTI crude oil prices that hit a three-month low below $70 overnight were also bearish outside-market forces for the cotton market.
World Weather Inc. today said cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see showers each day into Friday that will bring enough rain to temporarily boost soil moisture in a few areas, while much of the moisture will be quickly lost to evaporation in the warm to hot temperatures expected. The heat expected during the next week will increase stress to cotton, and especially dryland cotton, where much greater rain is needed to boost soil moisture and improve conditions for the crop. Saturday into July 8 will be dry most often with occasional showers that should not bring enough rain to do much more than briefly moisten the soil. Cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see showers each day into Friday that will bring enough rain to temporarily boost soil moisture in a few areas while much of the moisture will be quickly lost to evaporation in the warm to hot temperatures expected. Little rain is expected during the next two weeks in south Texas, the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend, where recent rain has left the soil moist enough to favorably support cotton development through the period. By the second week of July soil moisture will be short enough in some areas that greater rain will be needed soon.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures bears have the near-term technical advantage.. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 77.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 70.92 cents. First resistance is seen at 74.00 cents and then at today’s high of 74.61 cents. First support is seen at 72.00 cents and then at 70.92 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.