Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 cent to $5.22, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild selling pressure and chart consolidation today. Buying interest was limited as prices broke below a three-week-old trading range on the daily chart at elevated levels. Lower wheat futures prices today also weighed on corn.A firmer U.S. dollar index today hit a three-month high was also a bearish outside-market element for corn today.
USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. corn crop conditions held steady the past week but harvest lagged the expected pace as a result of heavy rains in the western Corn Belt. USDA said 57% of the corn crop was rated “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week and matching analyst expectations. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) saw a 0.88-point increase. Corn harvest was pegged at 18% complete, a percentage point below the average estimate and in line with the five-year average.
Our crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, noted this week that Brazil’s first corn crop is 34% planted and he estimates production at 138 MMT. He holds a neutral bias going forward. He estimates Argentine production at 60 MMT.
USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks report late Wednesday morning.
World Weather Inc. today said additional waves of rain coming to the western U.S. Corn Belt into the weekend will delay fieldwork. Eastern Midwest crop areas will see good drying conditions for a while and then get a little rain. The Delta may trend wetter later this week and into the weekend with some of that moisture impacting a part of the lower eastern Midwest and/or the southeastern states. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil led to some earlier than usual planting of first-season corn. Recent rain has been a little erratic, but still favorable in some areas. Greater rain is expected later this week and into next week to offer some improvement.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls are fading and appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09, which is the bottom of an upside gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.29 and then at $5.36. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.14 3/4 and then at $5.10.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 9 1/2 cents to $12.97 3/4, near the daily high. December soybean meal lost $0.40 to $359.00, nearer the daily high and hit a three-week low early on. December soybean oil gained 70 points to 68.36 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw some short covering today, following recent losses. The U.S. dollar index hit a three-month high today and the rallying greenback is a bearish outside-market factor for the soy complex that did somewhat limit the upside today.
USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. soybean crop conditions held steady the past week but harvest lagged the expected pace as a result of heavy rains in the western Corn Belt. USDA said 58% of soybeans were rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week and matching expectations. The Pro Farmer CCI for soybeans edged up 0.56 point to 355.25.The soybean harvest was 17% complete, behind the average estimate of 19% but in line with the five-year average.
Dr. Cordonnier estimates Brazil’s 2026-27 soybean production at 180 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward.He estimates Argentine production at 54 MMT.
USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks report on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today said the western Corn Belt will see wet weather into Thursday, slowing fieldwork, with some heavy rain from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas into Iowa where many areas have saturated or nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding is likely to occur. A much drier weather pattern will occur Friday into Oct. 13 and harvesting will quickly accelerate outside of eastern Nebraska into Iowa and nearby areas where a gradual resumption of fieldwork is likely. The eastern Corn Belt will see little rain into early Wednesday with most central and southern areas dry into Thursday and fieldwork should advance well before rain spreads across the region into Friday.
Technical analysis: November soybeans have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from the sideways trading range at higher levels to suggest a market top is in place. Bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $13.22 1/2 and then at $13.35 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.79 1/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $345.00. First resistance comes in at $365.00 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $353.90 and then at $350.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 69.20 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.61 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 4 cents to $6.92 3/4, near the daily high and hit a five-week low early on. December HRW fell 2 3/4 cents to $7.43, nearer the session high and hit a six-week low early on.
December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $6.99 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market saw some mild short covering today, while HRW saw modest technical selling pressure. Buying interest has been limited as both SRW and HRW are in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. The firmer U.S. dollar index today that hit a three-month high was also a bearish outside-market factor for the wheat markets.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier indicates Brazil may import near record amounts of wheat in 2026-27 as heavy rains and high humidity are production challenges. In a good year, Brazilian farmers only produce about half enough wheat to meet domestic consumption and the 2026 crop is turning out to be problematic.
Wheat traders are awaiting USDA’s quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports on Wednesday.
World Weather Inc. today said Western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture. Some rain will evolve slowly this week and next week. Eastern Europe will be dry during much of this period of time, which may be good for summer crop harvesting but wheat planting and emergence will be slowed. Rain is expected to fall periodically in portions of China’s winter wheat region. Recent rain in Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region was welcome, but more is needed to ensure a good stand of wheat this autumn. Planting will accelerate this week due to drier weather. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Argentina’s wheat is well established and a little rain would be welcome. Showers are expected to slowly increase over the next ten days to improve the situation. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably; however, rainy weather in the next ten days will delay harvesting slow maturation and may reduce grain quality across Parana and a few neighboring areas.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.03 and then at $7.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.81 1/2 and then at $6.70.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.62 3/4 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.33 3/4 and then at $7.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell the daily trading limit of 400 points to 78.86 and hit a nine-week low. March and May cotton also closed limit-down. Daily trading limits will be expanded on Wednesday by 1.00 cent per pound (100 points).
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw heavy fund long liquidation, speculator panic selling and technical selling featured today, due in part to a stronger U.S. dollar index that today hit a three-month high. Disappointment that cotton was not a part of the recent U.S.-China trade thaw for U.S. ag product imports to China also likely prompted the selling pressure in futures. A sell off in the U.S. stock indexes and crude oil prices, as well as rising bond yields, also help to sink the cotton futures market today. The latest CFTC commitments of traders data showed the funds have recently shed over 16,000 long contracts, accelerating today’s price downdraft.
USDA on Monday afternoon reported the U.S. cotton crop was 17% harvested as of Sunday, with 70% bolls opening. The crop was rated 35% poor to very poor, 30% fair and 35% good to excellent.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas and the Texas Blacklands will not be impacted by excessive rain, but sufficient amounts are likely to discolor cotton fiber. Drier weather next week will help to bleach to fiber once again. Rain is also possible in the Delta and parts of the southeastern states later this week and into the weekend as a little tropical moisture surges inland. No excessive rain is expected and the impact on crops should be low, though the situation should be closely monitored.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00 and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.