Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $4.60 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market was again pulled higher by rallying winter wheat futures markets. Some corn-planting delays due to wet soils in parts of the Midwest were also price-supportive for corn futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.67 MMT during the week ended April 16, up 46,936 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the expected pre-report range of 980,000 to 1.75 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation and interruptions to fieldwork returned to areas from eastern Kansas to the eastern Corn Belt and Wisconsin to central and south-central Minnesota during the weekend, while most other areas were dry with a little light snow extending to the west into the eastern Dakotas. Frost and freezes occurred in much of the Midwest during the weekend and early-planted corn and soybeans in a few areas may have been burned back by the cold, but most areas where crops have emerged are near and south of the Ohio River and much of this region stayed above freezing. Much of the Midwest will see little precipitation into Wednesday and planting should increase in the drier area before the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt and Wisconsin see two rounds of precipitation and delays to fieldwork Thursday into next Monday. The northwestern Corn Belt will miss much of the significant precipitation and areas from northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota to southwestern Minnesota will be left in need of significant rain to restore the soil moisture.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. corn planting at 10% complete as of Sunday, compared to 5% planted one week ago at the same time and 12% in the ground one year ago.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Recent price gains suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the April low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $4.62 1/2 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.55 1/2 and then at $4.52 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 1 1/4 cents to $11.81 3/4, near mid-range. July soybean meal fell $6.00 to $321.20, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil rose 139 points to 69.30 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market has been pausing recently, with selling interest limited by rallying wheat prices but buying interest limited as the meal market is breaking down again. Shorter-term traders today were again featured buying soybean oil and selling meal futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 748,678 MT during the week ended April 16. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 820,000 MT
AgRural estimated Brazilian farmers had harvested 92% of the 2025-26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, up 5 percentage points from the previous week.
Safras & Mercado increased its 2025-26 soybean production forecast to 178.11 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 177.72 MMT.
China is expected to import fewer soybeans in 2026, according to an agriculture ministry-backed outlook released on Monday.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. remains slow in the heart of the Midwest, but progress has been made. The Delta will trend wetter this weekend into next week and some needed rain may impact a part of the southeastern states briefly during the weekend and next week.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. soybean planting at 11% complete as of Sunday, compared to 6% planted one week ago at the same time and 8% in the ground one year ago.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $11.99 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $11.68 and then at the April low of $11.56 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $327.70 and then at $330.50. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at $316.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained strength. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.12 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.32 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.12 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 6 3/4 cents to $6.06, near mid-range. July HRW lost 2 1/2 cents to $6.47 1/2, nearer the daily low. July spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $6.72 1/4..
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market saw more technical buying interest amid a weather market that has developed, especially in HRW futures. However, HRW futures saw some routine profit taking from recent good gains.
World Weather Inc. today said freezing temperatures early in the weekend burned back new vegetative growth in the U.S. HRW wheat crop. “Some new injury on the crop raises the need for generalized rainfall and mild to cool temperatures. Changes are coming, but only after another round of very warm to hot weather expected early to mid-week this week.” Some shower activity is expected in the next seven days which will be better than none, but will leave the region with a continued need for greater rainfall. The shower activity that occurs will be lowest in southwestern production areas and greatest near the eastern fringes of the region. Frequent windy conditions could cause the soil to dry out faster than it would otherwise. More light freezes are possible in northwestern production areas later this week. In the Northern Plains, shower activity this week will occur mainly from one large storm system Wednesday into Friday involving showers and thunderstorms initially followed by some snow on the backside of it. This system will also have strong winds, with blizzard conditions possible in Montana and the western Dakotas. The associated moisture will be mostly beneficial, especially with the dryness that has been ongoing in Montana. Enough precipitation is expected for some increase in topsoil moisture.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 518,141 MT during the week ended April 16, up 245,172 MT from the previous week.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show U.S. spring wheat planting at 14% complete as of Sunday, compared to 6% planted one week ago at the same time and 17% in the ground one year ago. The winter wheat crop condition is seen at 33% good to excellent condition compared to 34% last week and 45% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.15 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.98 1/2 and then at $5.90.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.63 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at $6.45 and then at $6.35.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 22 points to 80.04 cents, nearer the daily high and hit another two-year high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying featured today. A weaker U.S. dollar index recently, have supported buying interest in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said beneficial rain fell from southwestern Oklahoma and southernmost parts of West Texas to the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas during the weekend where fieldwork was interrupted and some improvements in soil moisture occurred. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to significantly boost soil moisture leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks that should bring enough rain to improve soil moisture and conditions for cotton germination, establishment, and development.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports will be closely scrutinized by cotton traders.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a decent corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 81.00 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.87 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.