Corn
Price action: December corn rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.37 3/4, near mid-range and hit a contract and three-year high overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market paused today, with gains limited by steady soybean prices and solidly lower winter wheat futures prices. The charts remain firmly bullish and the fundamental picture is also price-friendly. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.496 MMT during the week ended Aug. 27, up 173,440 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped analysts’ pre-report range of expectations of 1.15 MMT to 1.25 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south had planted 11% of the 2026-27 first corn crop as of last Thursday, up from 2% a week earlier and four percentage points ahead of last year at this time, according to AgRural. Meanwhile, the second safrinha corn harvest was 96% complete.
World Weather Inc. today said warming and limited rain in the Midwest will benefit a few of the wetter areas while leading to some eventual moisture stress for immature crops in the drier fields. There is some potential for heat stress to cut into yields, although the lateness of the season and lingering subsoil moisture will help limit losses. In Brazil, harvesting of Safrinha corn will be slowed by rain at times during the next two weeks, with the focus of rain likely to shift often enough to allow some fieldwork to advance and prevent extended delays to farming activity.
Traders were awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The agency is expected to rate 56% of the U.S. corn crop in good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, down 1 percentage point from the previous week.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $5.42 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.31 1/2 and then at $5.25.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans closed steady at $12.88, nearer the daily high and hit another contract high and 2.5-year high. December soybean meal fell $3.60 to $345.40, near mid-range. December soybean oil rose 6 points to 71.12 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market paused today amid a steep price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Gains were limited today by only slight gains in corn and solid losses in winter wheat prices today. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 159,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations during 2026-27. USDA reported weekly export inspections totaled 250,801 MT during the week ended Aug. 27, down 179,278 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were shy of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 400,000 to 600,000 MT. The Environmental Protection Agency’s decision on a big backlog of pending Small Refinery Exemptions (SRE) under the Renewable Fuel Standard was expected today. That’s the deadline the agency set to clear the waivers.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 59% good-to-excellent condition as of Sunday, down from 60% a week ago. If realized, the ratings would represent the lowest for both crops for the 35th week of the calendar year since 2023, according to USDA data.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest, although regular rounds of showers will occur through the next 10 days, net drying will be common as temperatures will be warmer than normal into early next week and coverage of significant rain will be scattered most often. Most soybeans in the northwestern Corn Belt will benefit from additional rain during the next two weeks and some small increases in yields are likely with the rain too late for a major boost in production. Warm to hot temperatures from the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt into early next week will favor crop maturation with subsoil moisture adequate to support late crop development. Some cooling will occur during the middle to late part of next week.
Technical analysis: The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.14. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $12.94 1/2 and then at $13.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.77 1/4 and then at Wednesday’s low of $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $360.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $348.50 and then at last week’s high of $352.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $343.20 and then at $340.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at the August high of 71.69 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 67.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW lost 10 cents to $7.74, nearer the daily high. December HRW fell 6 1/4 cents to $8.38, nearer the daily high. December spring wheat futures fell 6 1/4 cents to $7.63.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets today saw profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term futures traders amid what is so far just a routine downside price correction in the existing uptrends. The late-session push in prices to well up from daily lows was impressive. Black Sea supply constraints continue to be a bullish underlying fundamental for the wheat markets.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 430,925 MT during the week ended Aug. 27, down 1,613 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were near the upper-end of the pre-report range of expectations from 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
APK-Inform reported weekly exports from Ukraine increased by 28% during the week ended August 26, after grain exports had fallen sharply since late July after Russian missile and drone attacks blocked Ukrainian Sea ports in the Odesa region. Russian grain exporters are rerouting shipments to the Baltic Sea, including ports in the Baltic states, after Ukrainian drone attacks in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov forced alternative routes, traders told Reuters. Turkey has prepared a plan for the safe passage of grain via the Black Sea and is in contact with both Russia and Ukraine, according to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Monday.
Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. U.S. spring wheat harvesting was expected to be 75% complete as of Sunday, up from 62% a week ago.
World weather today also said good harvest weather has been occurring in the northern U.S. Plains and Pacific Northwest. Most other harvesting is complete. Planting of 2027 wheat in the southwestern U.S. Plains should begin soon, but rain and cooler temperatures must fall first before planting begins even in some of the irrigated fields. Some dryness relief recently impacted a part of both Canada’s late spring wheat and barley crop areas as well as in a few northern U.S. Plains locations. The rain has not restored soil moisture to normal. It is too late in the season for rain to change production potentials or grain quality. Crop maturation and harvesting will advance around showers this week. Meantime, spring wheat maturation and harvesting is advancing across Russia. Weekend frost and light freezes had no negative impact on crop conditions. Dry weather is needed to support harvesting and protect grain quality. Southeastern Europe has been drying out recently and that is helping to promote spring crop maturation and harvesting. Rain is needed for future winter wheat, barley and rye planting that is getting under way in a few areas and will increase in September. Western Europe has a big need for greater rainfall prior to winter crop planting, but not much is expected in the coming 10 days.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends are still firmly in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $7.90 1/4 and then at $8.00. First support is seen at $7.50 and then at $7.41.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $8.52 and then at $8.65. First support is seen at $8.15 and then at $8.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 176 points to 93.14 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a contract and 2.5-year high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more speculator buying amid bullish charts and price-friendly cotton-growing weather in much of the southern Plains. Sharply higher crude oil prices and a lower U.S. dollar index today were bullish outside-market elements for the natural fiber. Traders were awaiting this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next 10 days to two weeks as hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Cotton that received significant rain last week will be able to use that moisture for a while with stress to the crop likely to soon increase as the soil dries out again. Stress to crops will be eased when some cooling occurs during the middle to late part of next week with some showers possible Sep. 9-14. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and stress to developing cotton will steadily increase as the soil dries out while cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 87.05 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 93.74 cents and then at 94.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 90.60 cents and then at 88.88 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.