Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 3/4 cents to $5.00 1/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild technical selling pressure today as the near-term charts favor the bears. The stronger U.S. dollar index this week hit a 1.5-year high is also a bearish outside-market element for corn futures. Combines in the western Corn Belt are getting back in the fields late this week, which is also prompting some more commercial hedge pressure on corn futures.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn sales of 769,500 MT for the week ended Oct. 1, up 44% from the previous week and up 28% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. Next up is the agency’s monthly supply and demand report on Friday. Read morehere on what to expect Friday from Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in the U.S. Midwest is welcome and good for the maturation and harvest of crops. Rain from tropical storm Isaias will impact the lower Midwest this weekend, causing delays to farming activity. A cool front next week will bring a little more rain to the U.S. Midwest before drier weather finally resumes. Rain coming to Brazil in the next 10 days will eventually support more aggressive planting and emergence in center-west, although southern Brazil is likely to be a little too wet at times delaying fieldwork for a while and possibly raising the potential for replanting. Center-west planting and establishment conditions should improve as rain falls more periodically.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart to better suggest a near-term market top is in place. A bear flag pattern has also formed on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.92. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.09 3/4 and then at $5.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.95 and then at $4.92.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 10 cents to $12.87 1/2, near the daily low. December soybean meal fell $8.20 to $357.60, near the daily low. December soybean oil rose 24 points to 67.92 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw follow-through selling today, with meal leading the way down and posting solid losses after two sessions in a row of good gains. Spreaders were featured selling meal and buying bean oil today. The stronger U.S. dollar index recently that is near this week’s 1.5-year high is a bearish outside-market factor for soybeans and meal.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 549,400 MT during the week ended Oct. 1, down 47% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of 450,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. USDA’s monthly WASDE report is out Friday near midday. Read more here on what to expect Friday from Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford.
World Weather Inc. today said harvesting of crops will occur rapidly in most areas during the next two weeks, around two rounds of organized rain, while a steady ramping up of fieldwork will occur in the wetter areas from northeastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into southern Michigan. The next round of well-organized rain will occur Tuesday into Friday of next week, when the rain should not be heavy enough to cause lasting delays to fieldwork with southwestern to central areas wettest.
Technical analysis: November soybeans still see a fledgling downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $12.73 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $13.09 and then at $13.22 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $12.73 1/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $368.50 and then at $370.00. First support is seen Wednesday’s low of $354.00 and then at $350.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 69.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 70.04 cents. First support is seen at the September low of 66.61 cents and then at 65.98 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $6.83 1/4, near the daily low. December HRW lost 2 1/4 cents to $7.36 1/4, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 4 1/4 cents to $7.06, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets paused today. Selling interest was limited by intensifying attacks by Russia and Ukraine ahead of winter that are further endangering navigation in the Black Sea, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reported earlier today, adding that world powers must not allow the region to be turned into a new front in the war. Meantime, Lithuania will propose an EU ban on Russian grain exports via European ports and infrastructure, as well as imposing sanctions on Russian agricultural oligarchs who support the war in Ukraine, according to its prime minister. Ukraine, whose key seaports are blocked due to Russian attacks, wants to use German ports for agricultural exports, according to the Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi.
Asian wheat millers are cutting forward commitments in reaction to soaring prices caused by Black Sea disruptions, which have choked off exports from one of the world’s most important growing regions, Bloomberg reported. The report said some millers in Southeast and South Asia are covering needs only through December or closer to delivery, instead of their usual practice of buying as far as six months ahead.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 451,600 MT during the week ended Oct. 1, up 56% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range from 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT. The agency’s monthly supply and demand report comes out Friday just before midday. Read more here on what to expect Friday from Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment will improve greatly in the next 10 days due to recent rain and the anticipated sunnier and warm-biased weather that is forthcoming. Meanwhile, western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture, but improvements are likely in the next week except in northwestern France and southern parts of the U.K. where rain will be quite limited. Eastern Europe will be drier biased for a while favoring winter crop planting, but greater rain will soon be needed to support the best possible emergence and establishment. The Black Sea region is also expecting a generally dry biased pattern for a while. Rain will soon be needed in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Argentina’s wheat has benefited from recent rain and that which is expected later this workweek. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably; however, rainy weather in the next ten days will delay harvesting, slow maturation and may reduce grain quality across Parana and a few neighboring areas.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.06 1/2 and then at $7.20. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.70 3/4 and then at $6.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.58 3/4 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.29 and then at $7.15.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 9 points to 79.94 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures paused today. Selling interest was limited by higher crude oil prices today. Losses in most of the grain futures markets today were bearish for cotton futures. The stronger U.S. dollar index that is near the recent 1.5-year high is also a bearish outside-market factor for cotton.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales totaling 165,100 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (61,800 RB), Pakistan (45,900 RB) and India (20,800 RB). Net sales of 56,100 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for China (44,100 RB), Honduras (10,400 RB) and Japan (1,600 RB). Exports of 161,600 RB were up 8 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (39,600 RB), India (18,100 RB) and Mexico (17,900 RB).
USDA’s monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) comes out just before midday on Friday. Read more here on what to expect Friday from Pro Farmer’s Spencer Langford.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has hurt fiber quality from Alabama and northern Florida into southern Georgia. The crop will be vulnerable to additional quality declines as moisture from Tropical Storm Isaias begins to stream through the region late this week and into the weekend. In Texas, western regions and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through most of the next two weeks, allowing for harvesting advance well before rain next week with drier weather Oct. 17-22 important in drying out bolls to reduce the risk of boll rot. Rain will be enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel Monday into Wednesday when much of the region receives 0.20-1.20” and locally more with a few more showers possible late in the week. Another round of rain is likely Oct. 15-16 when 40% of the region receives up to 0.75” and locally more. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also be dry through most of the next two weeks and harvesting in the Blacklands should advance well around some infrequent showers while much of the cotton in the Coastal Bend and South Texas has been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures still see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 81.73 cents and then at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 78.77 cents and then at last week’s low of 77.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.