Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 3/4 cents to $5.27 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators today. Losses in the wheat futures markets spilled over into some selling in corn futures. The corn bulls appear tired and may need a fresh, bullish fundamental spark. They are hoping that spark comes from Friday’s USDA S&D report. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 182,880 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico during the 2026-27 marketing year.
USDA Tuesday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 56% good to excellent as of Sunday, down one percentage point from the previous week. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the crop declined 1.67 points to 349.93, which is 24.25 points behind year-ago at this time. Corn harvest was estimated to be 5% complete, two points ahead of average.
World Weather Inc. today said corn is being sped to maturation and early harvesting is advancing well in the drier and warm bias. Recent rain and that which is coming to the western Corn Belt will slow crop maturation and hinder some field progress. Meantime, Mexico’s monsoon is expected to bring some beneficial moisture to corn and sorghum production in the west, but below normal rainfall is likely in the east. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil may lead to earlier than usual planting of first season corn.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are looking tired at present. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.34 3/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.26 1/2 and then at $5.20.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 6 3/4 cents to $13.09 1/2, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal rose $1.60 to $351.40, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil fell 13 points to 70.57 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw modest profit-taking from recent gains. Sellers remain timid amid recent good demand from China and more today. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 340,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27.
USDA Tuesday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 58% good to excellent, which was unchanged on the week. However, on our CCI, the crop declined 2.2 points to 355.35, which is 9.44 points behind year-ago at this time.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the next two weeks and although harvesting will be slowed most crops are not ready to be harvested and where crops are ready to be harvested in the south rain should be infrequent enough to allow early harvesting to advance well overall. After another day of hot weather in portions of the southwestern and south-central Midwest cooling will occur along with rain that will induce highly beneficial increases in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: November soybeans are still due for a significant corrective pullback soon. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.24 and then at $13.35. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at $12.90.
Soybean meal sees a solid price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $357.70 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $347.30 and then at $345.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 73.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 68.23 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 18 1/4 cents to $7.28 3/4, near the daily low and hit a two-week low. December HRW lost 12 3/4 cents to $8.06 1/4, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 6 cents to $7.48, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw selling pressure from profit taking among the shorter-term futures traders. Selling also was credited to news reports Russian President Putin now says he wants peace talks to resume. Russia’s biggest Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the surrounding areas were attacked by drones overnight, “damaging infrastructure and threatening to further squeeze commodity flows from the region,” said a Bloomberg report
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported U.S. winter wheat plantings were 2% complete as of Sept. 6, which is two percentage points behind year ago and trailed the five-year average by three points.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country some periodic rainfall during the next two weeks will help improve topsoil moisture in portions of Kansas and a few areas in both Nebraska and Colorado, but warm weather will keep evaporation rates high and greater rain will still be needed. Texas and Oklahoma rainfall will be welcome and beneficial, but mostly for short periods of time. Drying between rain events will be significant enough to minimize any net gains in soil moisture for a while. Some early season planting of wheat and other crops will occur in areas that are irrigated and in areas that receive significant rain. Much of the planting will occur in October when temperatures will be less oppressively hot. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside with fluctuating temperatures. Areas with dry conditions will benefit remaining spring wheat harvesting, though areas in Montana and South Dakota may need to see more rainfall before winter wheat planting begins. Cooling temperatures may bring frost to far western Montana crop areas Sunday into Monday.
Technical analysis: Price uptrends on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW are now in jeopardy of being negated. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $6.85. First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at this week’s high of $7.63. First support is seen at $7.25 and then at $7.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $9.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $8.31 3/4 and then at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. First support is seen at $7.97 1/4 and then at $7.92 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 96 points to 87.28 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some perceived bargain hunting today. Still, recent losses are beginning to suggest the bulls are exhausted and that a near-term market top is in place.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop as 7% harvested as of Sunday, with 40% of bolls opening and 96% setting bolls. The U.S. cotton crop condition was rated 32% poor to very poor, 34% fair and 34% in good to excellent condition as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see net increases in crop stress and declines in yields through the next two weeks as warm to hot temperatures will continue through at least the next week and rain will be too light and infrequent to induce more than brief improvements in crop and soil conditions. Stress to crops will be briefly eased in small areas by showers today into Thursday when much of the region receives up to 0.50” of rain and locally more with another round of well-organized showers possible Monday into Tuesday. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through most of the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting occurs in a mostly favorable environment around some infrequent showers. Much-warmer-than-normal temperatures will continue through Sunday and highs across the region will be in the 90s and lower 100s with some middle 100s in south Texas on occasion and some upper 80s in the northern Panhandle Thursday.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. A bear flag or bearish pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 93.74 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 84.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 88.00 cents and then at 89.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 85.56 cents and then at 85.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.