Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 3/4 cent to $4.19 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw tepid short covering and some perceived value-buying after a stunning string of daily losses the past three weeks. However, a big sell off in the stock market and solidly lower crude oil prices today did limit the upside in corn. More price gains in corn this week would begin to suggest the market has put in a near-term price bottom. However, very good overall corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present remains a bearish element in the corn futures market. USDA’s weekly crop progress reports Monday afternoon showed U.S. corn was rated 67% good to excellent, unchanged from the prior report. The agency also reported corn planting at 97% complete as of June 7, with 86% of the crop emerged at that time.
USDA this morning reported a flash sale of 120,000 MT of U.S. corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Pro Farmer Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his Brazilian corn estimate 2 MMT, to 138 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward. Safrinha crop harvest is in the early stages and yield reports from Mato Grosso are good thus far.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to see frequent showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks, maintaining a good outlook for summer crops. Cooling this weekend and next week in the Midwest and Plains may slow crop development and drying rates for a little while. Late-season planting in the United States may be slowed by rain this week and a close watch on fieldwork and rainfall may be warranted. Safrinha corn areas of Brazil will receive waves of rain late this week into early next week slowing crop maturation and harvest progress. The moisture might be good for the more immature crops in the south.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is still oversold from a short-term technical perspective.The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 1/2 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.18 1/4 and then at $4.15.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 2 cents to $11.14 1/4, near mid-range and hit another four-month low early on. July soybean meal fell $1.60 to $301.10, near the daily low and hit another four-month low. July soybean oil rose 35 points to 74.91 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal market bulls are working to stop the bleeding but have seen little success this week. A big sell-off in the stock market and sharply lower crude oil prices today did limit the upside in the soy complex. Weather in the Midwest leans firmly overall price-bearish for the soy complex at present. USDA’s Monday afternoon weekly crop progress rating of the U.S. soybean crop was 65% in good to excellent condition, down 1% from last week. Planting is estimated at 92% complete with emergence at 79%.
China’s soybean imports in the month of May came in at 11.79 MMT, the third highest on record for the month, though down from last year’s 13.92 MMT.
Pro Farmer Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged, at 180 MMT and 49 MMT, respectively.
World Weather Inc. today said very high yield potential for the soybean crop will remain in place through the next two weeks as regular rain is expected in the drier parts of the region, as well as in the much of remainder of the Midwest. Soil moisture will be left favorable in nearly all areas. Fieldwork will be slowed at times but there will be breaks between rounds of rain and summer crop planting should soon be completed. A brief period of heat will occur today into Wednesday and some western areas will warm to the middle and upper 90s before gradual cooling occurs and most areas. It then becomes colder than normal this weekend into early next week. As long as timely rain falls as advertised June 17-20, most areas will be left with adequate soil moisture to support summer crop development into at least the end of the month and likely longer.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily chart. However, the market is short-term oversold and overdue for a corrective bounce. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.25 1/4 and then at $11.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.10 1/4 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $309.20 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 76.00 cents and then at 77.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 72.86 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 2 cents to $5.85 1/4, nearer the daily low. July HRW gained 1 cent to $6.30 3/4, nearer the daily low. Spring wheat futures fell 2 cents to $6.17 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some very tepid short covering in bear markets. However, a big selloff in the stock market and sharply lower crude oil prices today did limit the upside in wheat. Prices remain entrenched in downtrends on the daily bar charts. USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. winter wheat’s good to excellent rating dropped another percentage point this week and now stands at 25%. Harvest is off to a strong start and is 11% complete compared to the five year average of 6%.
SRW exports from the EU continue to pace ahead of last year and currently stand at 22.05 MMT compared to 20.55 million a year prior at this time. The Ukrainian grain trader’s union, UGA, estimates that 96% of the country’s spring grain plantings are now complete.
World weather today said scattered showers and thunderstorms in U.S. wheat areas during the coming week may not have a big impact on crops. However, a close watch on the frequency of rain will be warranted to make sure there are no crop quality issues to contend with. The Midwest soft wheat and that in the mid-south region may be wettest and suffer and crop quality decline. A favorable mix of weather is expected in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies over the next two weeks, supporting spring crop development, although there will be some slowdown in fieldwork. Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan may become or continue to be too wet as the rain evolves this week. Central and eastern Alberta still have pockets that are quite wet as well.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.74 3/4 and then at $5.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.43 3/4 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.25 and then at last week’s low of $6.14 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures lost 213 points to 71.26 cents, near the daily low and hit a nine-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw technical selling pressure resume today, after Monday’s pause. July cotton prices remain in a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. A big sell off in the U.S. stock market today and lower crude oil prices also worked against the cotton market bulls today.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 14% poor to very poor condition, 33% fair and 53% good to excellent condition as of Sunday. The crop is 77% planted, with 13% of the crop squaring.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas rainfall has been welcome recently, but a bit disappointing especially last week when rain was advertised much greater than that which fell. The region needs a more significant drink of water, despite “some” weekend showers and some this week.The precipitation will remain a little too sporadic and light leaving dryland areas in a big need for significant rain. Other cotton areas in Texas and Oklahoma are doing better with rainfall than West Texas, but all areas would still benefit from some timely rain. The Delta continues to have favorable soil moisture while the southeastern production areas are doing okay but will need rain soon as well. Favorable harvest weather should continue in Argentina, although some rain late Wednesday into Thursday may induce a little delay. Brazil’s Safrinha cotton is suspected of being in mostly good shape, although some rain would be welcome to induce the best yields in the north. There is some potential for showers in that region later this week.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.00 cents and then at today’s high of 73.86 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.