Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 1 1/4 cent to $4.18 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low early on. July corn closed up for the first time in six sessions.
Fundamental analysis: Tepid short covering and some perceived bargain hunting were featured in corn futures today. However, overall good corn-growing weather in the U.S. at present remains the main bearish element in the corn futures market that is limiting buying interest. There are also ideas the late-June USDA planting intentions report will show U.S. corn planted acres not much less than seen in the March report.
USDA reported U.S. corn export inspections totaling 75.2 million bushels for the week ended June 4, up from 68.9 million bushels the prior week.
Traders are looking forward to this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The corn crop is expected to be in 68% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 67% last week and 71% at the same time last year. The crop is expected to have been 97% in the ground as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said “very high yield potentials for summer crops will remain in place through the next two weeks,” as additional rain is expected in the drier parts of the Corn Belt, as well as in the remainder of the Midwest, and soil moisture will be left favorable in nearly all areas. Fieldwork will be slowed at times this week but there will be breaks between rounds of rain and with drier weather returning this weekend into the middle of next week, summer crop planting should soon be completed. A brief period of heat will occur Tuesday into Wednesday and some western and a few central areas will warm to the middle and upper 90s with a few lower 100s in southeastern South Dakota, before gradual cooling occurs and most areas become colder than normal this weekend.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is well oversold from a short-term technical perspective. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.21 and then at $4.25. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $4.12 1/2 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $11.15 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a four-month low. July soybean meal fell $5.80 to $302.70, near the daily low and hit a four-month low. July soybean oil rose 44 points to 74.56 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw more weak long liquidation and fresh short-selling from the speculative traders. Weather in the Midwest leans overall price-bearish for the soy complex at present. .
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 14.6 million bushels, down from 18.6 million bushels the prior week. Inspections slowing this week is rather disappointing given the recent strong pace.
Traders are looking forward to this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The bean crop is expected to be in 67% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 66% last week and 68% at the same time last year. The crop is expected to have been 93% in the ground as of Sunday.
World Weather Inc. today said portions of northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin, northwestern Indiana, southeastern Iowa and southwestern Michigan need moisture and should get more this week after a part of the region received rain during the weekend. Recent rain in southeastern South Dakota, Nebraska and neighboring states has brought some relief from dryness, though more rain is needed. Key Midwestern crop areas should see a moisture boost this week and the northern Delta and Tennessee River Basin will trend wetter as well. Any late-season planting in the U.S. may be slowed by rain this week and a close watch on fieldwork and rainfall may be warranted.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily chart. However, the market is short-term oversold and overdue for a corrective bounce. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $11.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.25 1/4 and then at $11.35. First support is seen at $11.10 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $309.20 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at the February low of $297.80.
Bean oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 72.86 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 3 1/4 cents to $5.83 1/4, near mid-range and hit a three-month low early on. July HRW gained 9 cents to $6.29 3/4, nearer the daily high. September spring wheat futures fell 1 1/4 cents to $6.45, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering in bear markets. Prices remain entrenched in downtrends on the daily bar charts.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections totaling 11.7 million bushels, down from 14.8 million bushels the previous week. Recent inspections data indicates the total marketing year exports for 2025-26 will likely come in below what USDA anticipated in its May report.
Traders are looking forward to this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. The spring wheat crop is expected to be in 49% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 47% last week and 53% at the same time last year. The spring wheat crop is expected to have been 97% in the ground as of Sunday. Winter wheat harvested is seen at 10% complete as of Sunday, compared to 5% last week and 4% last year at the same time.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, the western high Plains are unlikely to get much significant rain during the coming week to 10 days, although some showers and thunderstorms are expected. Greater rain will fall farther to the east where summer crops are expected to perform well. Winter wheat development is advancing better now that significant rain has occurred, though the greater rain came a little too late in the season to seriously change production potential. In the Northern Plains, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be beneficial in maintaining soil conditions and supporting crops in much of the crop region. Excessive heat with highs nearing 100 degrees on Tuesday may cause some livestock stress but no major impacts are expected.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.74 3/4 and then at $5.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.70. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.38 and then at $6.48 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.14 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 36 points to 73.39 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a two-month low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw modest technical selling pressure today amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The recent steep sell off in the grain futures markets has been bearish for cotton. The recent rally in the U.S. dollar index, which hit a nine-week high today has also been a negative for the cotton market.
Traders were looking forward to this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a few light showers into Wednesday before daily showers and thunderstorms bring rain to the region Thursday into next Monday, followed by drier weather June 16-22 when a few infrequent showers occur. Recent and additional rain into next Monday will leave most dryland areas with enough soil moisture to support germination and development of cotton but temperatures will be warm to hot and the soil is likely to dry down quickly leaving much of the region in need of follow-up rain soon. The Blacklands, south Texas and the Coastal Bend will see regular rounds of often light showers during the next two weeks slowing drying rates and keeping soil moisture favorable in much of the region.
Technical analysis: July cotton futures are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00. First support is seen at 72.50 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.