Corn
Price action: December corn fell 4 1/2 cents to $4.97 3/4, near mid-range and for the week down 30 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market late this week extended the big downdraft on Wednesday, including today’s technically bearish weekly low close. That suggests some more chart-based selling in corn futures early next week. USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 218,600 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 173,800 MT is for 2026-27, 22,400 MT is for 2027-28 and 22,400 MT is for 2028-29.
Mexico’s corn production will fall 3% in 2026 to 23.5 MMT, leaving domestic output below half of the 48.2 MMT of apparent consumption, according to GCMA. The decline is driven by drought in Sinaloa, where production fell from 6.8 MMT to 1.8 MMT, along with high input costs, limited financing.
Traders will continue to monitor the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoon.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said a much drier weather pattern will occur in the Midwest during the next two weeks and harvesting of crops will quickly accelerate outside of areas that received heavy rain during the past few days where a gradual resumption of fieldwork is likely. Rain will fall from southeastern Missouri to Kentucky and most of Ohio today where the moisture will be beneficial for winter wheat while the rain will be light enough that follow-up rain will be needed soon in most areas outside of Ohio to ensure the crop becomes well-established. Today’s forecast is wetter for Oct. 12-14 than what was advertised earlier this week and much of the rain should not be heavy enough to cause prolonged delays to fieldwork with the rain welcome in winter wheat areas that did not receive significant rain this week.
90-day outlook: Harvesting, which is getting a late start in the western Corn Belt, and the related commercial hedge pressure will ramp up in the coming weeks, which will add to selling pressure in corn futures. The strong U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market will also be a headwind for the grain futures markets.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 5 3/4 cents to $12.78 1/4, near mid-range and hit a four-week low. For the week, November beans were down 40 3/4 cents. December soybean meal fell $5.80 to $347.50, nearer the daily low, hit a four-week low and for the week down $23.50. December bean oil rose 124 points to 68.62 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 78 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw weak long liquidation and some technical selling as the near-term chart postures for both markets have deteriorated the past week. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in November beans and December meal set the table for follow-through chart-based selling from the specs early next week. The strong U.S. dollar index that Thursday hit a 1.5-year high is also a bearish outside-market element for the soybean complex futures. Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said a big change toward drier weather is forthcoming this weekend and it will dominate the following week in the U.S. Midwest, Delta and Great Plains. The new environment will be ideal for maturing crops in a better environment and promoting better harvest conditions for some areas. Meantime, rain coming to Brazil in the next ten days will eventually support more aggressive planting in center-west, although southern Brazil is likely to become too wet delaying fieldwork for a while and possibly raising the potential for replanting. Center-west planting and establishment conditions should improve as rain falls more periodically.
90-day outlook: Domestic demand for soybeans remains solid. The monthly oilseed crushings report from USDA showed 210 million bushels of beans were consumed in August, down 12 million bushels from last month, but up 12 million bushels from the previous year at this time. Local cash markets saw sharp movements in basis as the delayed harvest in the Midwest has kept soybean supplies abnormally tight for late September. Traders will continue to monitor U.S.-China trade relations and any new developments that could impact China purchases of U.S. soybeans.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/4 cent to $6.83, near mid-range and for the week down 20 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat lost 2 1/4 cents to $7.35 1/4, near mid-range and for the week down 26 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $6.98, near mid-range and for the week down 15 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw a pause to end the trading week. Losses in corn and soybean futures markets today did limit buying interest in winter wheat futures. The strong U.S. dollar index that hit a 1.5-year high on Thursday has been a bearish weight on the wheat markets lately.
Ukraine’s winter wheat sowing area for the 2027 harvest could fall by 17% due to export difficulties, according to Ukrainian farm minister Taras Vysotskyi.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment will improve greatly in the next 10 days due to recent rain and the anticipated sunnier and warm-biased weather that is forthcoming. Meantime, western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture, but improvements are likely in the next week except in northwestern France and southern parts of the U.K. where rain will be quite limited. Eastern Europe will be drier-biased for a while, favoring winter crop planting, emergence and establishment. The Black Sea region is also expecting a generally dry-biased pattern for a while. Rain will soon be needed in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region. India’s winter wheat crop may have a more challenging year with limited rain and warmer than usual weather during the heart of the growing season. Rain is needed in Yellow River Basin and North China Plain, although sufficient moisture is present for planting and emergence and winter crops in this area are largely irrigated. Southern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season due to timely rainfall over the next couple of weeks. Argentina’s wheat is well established and a little rain would be welcome. Showers are expected to slowly increase over the next ten days to improve the situation. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably; however, rainy weather in the next 10 days will delay harvesting slow maturation.
90-day outlook: Analysis from Octopusbot suggests 6% of world wheat exports remains at risk due to the conflict in the Black Sea. The firm reduced their forecast of Russian exports by 1 to 2 MMT compared to the start of September. The Black Sea grain-shipping situation will remain a major wild card for the wheat futures markets in the months ahead.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 112 points to 78.88 cents, near the daily high after hitting a three-month low early on and for the week down 376 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw short covering after Tuesday’s big price downdraft and limit-down close. The near-term technical posture for cotton remains firmly bearish, with a price downtrend on the daily bar chart in place, which will keep the chart-based bears confident early next week.
Cotton’s adjusted world price (AWP) fell to 65.18 cents per pound, still above loan-payment territory. A 25,376-bale special import quota opens Oct. 8.
Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said dry weather will dominate west Texas, the Texas Panhandle and southwestern Kansas for much of the coming week and possibly 10 days. The Blacklands of Texas will also trend drier, but only after rain ends there today. There is some potential for more rain in the Blacklands after Oct. 10, but confidence is low. Parts of south Texas and the Coastal Bend may also get some rain periodically, but especially Oct. 9-11 and the moisture will help improve topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Too much rain may fall in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Georgia late this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave brings widespread rain to the region. Some showers will also impact the Delta, although the impact will be low. Some fiber quality concerns may evolve in the wetter areas of the southeastern states.
90-day outlook: The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September following a downwardly revised 133,000 job increase in August. That was well below forecasts of 90,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September, up from 4.1% in August and above market expectations. U.S. stocks surged higher and the U.S. dollar index sank after the number as a weaker job market could give the Fed some flexibility in leaving interest rates steady in the October Fed meeting, while a hike was previously expected. Steady U.S. interest rates would be a price-friendly development for cotton futures as the fall apparel- and Christmas-shopping season play out.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.