Corn
Price action: December corn rose 1 1/2 cents to $5.02 1/4, nearer the session high and hit another five-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market choppy, two-sided trade today amid more selling pressure in the wake of Wednesday’s surprisingly bearish USDA quarterly grain stocks report. Technical selling and weak long liquidation were featured for much of the session today as the chart posture for corn has significantly deteriorated. However, some corrective buying and perceived bargain hunting entered the market in late trading. The U.S. dollar index rallied to a 1.5-year high today, which also limited the upside for corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 536,000 MT during the week ended Sept. 24 for 2026-27. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 500,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
China is reiterating plans to expand domestic grain capacity—targeting 725 million tons by 2030—to ensure supply security against global volatility and growing domestic demand, the South China Morning Post reported Wednesday. Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Zhang Zhu noted Tuesday that while staple grains are ample, feed grains like corn remain tight and foreign soybean dependence stays high for edible oil and livestock feed, emphasizing that “the string of food security must always be kept taut.”
World Weather Inc. today said additional waves of rain coming to the western U.S. Corn Belt into the weekend will delay fieldwork additionally. Eastern Midwest crop areas will see good drying conditions for a while and then get a little rain. The Delta may trend wetter later this week and into the weekend, with some of that moisture impacting a part of the lower eastern Midwest and/or the southeastern states. Remnants of Hurricane Polo brought more excessive rain to eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa overnight and the greater rain will shift east through other parts of Iowa and neighboring western Corn Belt crops in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois and Wisconsin, causing more delay to fieldwork and raising concern about crop conditions. Much drier weather after Friday should help improve the situation. Meantime, rain coming to Brazil in the next ten days will support more aggressive planting, although it is likely to become too wet in the interior south delaying fieldwork for a while and possibly raising the potential for replanting. Center-west planting and establishment conditions should improve as rain falls more periodically.
Technical analysis: December corn now sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart to better suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.92. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.05 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at $4.92 and then at $4.85.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 9 cents to $12.84, near mid-range and hit a five-week low. December soybean meal lost $3.60 to $353.30, near mid-range and hit a three-week low. December soybean oil fell 90 points to 67.38 cents, near mid-range and closed at a five-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw technical selling pressure and weak long liquidation today as prices are now starting to trend down on the daily bar chart. The U.S. dollar index rallied to a 1.5-year high today, which also pressured the soy complex futures.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export sales totaled 1.034 MMT during the week ended Sept. 24 for 2026-27. Net sales topped the expected pre-report range between 850,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said heavy rain will fall today from a large part of eastern Kansas into central Illinois, where many areas outside of Illinois have saturated or nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding is likely to occur. Significant rain will fall elsewhere from eastern Missouri to the eastern Corn Belt. Southeastern Missouri to southern Ohio and Kentucky will see little rain today and fieldwork should advance swiftly before rain tonight into Friday improves conditions for winter wheat planting, germination, and establishment. The soil is dry enough in much of the region that follow-up rain will be needed and is not likely into the middle of October. A much drier weather pattern will occur Friday into Oct. 15 and harvesting of summer crops and planting of winter wheat will quickly accelerate outside of areas that received heavy rain during the past couple days or see heavy rain today where a gradual resumption of fieldwork is likely.
Technical analysis: November soybeans have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from the sideways trading range at higher levels to suggest a market top is in place. Bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at this week’s high of $13.22 1/2. First support is seen at $12.70 and then at $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $337.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $357.60 and then at $360.00. First support is seen at $347.50 and then at $345.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.03 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at 66.00 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 7 cents to $6.82 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a six-week low early on. December HRW rose 4 1/2 cents to $7.37 1/2, nearer the session high and hit a six-week low early on. December spring wheat futures rose 3 1/2 cents to $6.96 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets saw choppy, two-sided trade today, with buying interest limited by lower soybean prices. Also somewhat limiting buying interest in wheat futures for most of the session, the U.S. dollar index rallied to a 1.5-year high today. However, corrective buying and perceived bargain hunting from the specs surfaced late in the session.
Estonia has banned the transit of Russian and Belarussian grain through its territory, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said Thursday, according to Reuters. The move comes after reports last month said Russian companies were repurposing fertilizer, coal and other cargo terminals at Russia’s Baltic and Arctic ports to handle grain exports after Black Sea shipments were disrupted by Ukraine drone attacks.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 289,300 MT during the week ended Sept. 24, up 8% from the previous week and 5% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, improving soil moisture across hard red winter wheat areas is going to lead to aggressive planting in the next few weeks. Dry weather is likely late this weekend through much of next week and that will allow the wetter areas to dry while getting producers into their fields in many other areas. Summer crop harvesting is being delayed by rain but drier conditions coming this weekend through the following seven days will get fieldwork back underway. In the Northern Plains, somewhat drier- biased weather is expected across much of the crop region, though showers will still occur briefly in the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota late Friday into Saturday. Drier conditions will dominate the late weekend into next week. Rainfall may inhibit some fieldwork in eastern portions of the crop region, though increased moisture will overall be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops. More rain is needed in Montana and the western Dakotas. Seasonable frost will be possible near the U.S./Canada border; mainly near the U.S./Canada border.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.03 and then at $7.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.70 3/4 and then at $6.60.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at this week’s high of $7.62 3/4. First support is seen at $7.25 and then at the August low of $7.12.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 76 points to 77.76 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-month low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw technical selling pressure today amid a price downtrend firmly in place on the daily bar chart. There is lingering disappointment that cotton was not a part of the recent U.S.-China trade thaw for U.S. ag product imports to China. A stronger U.S. dollar index today that hit a three-month high was also negative for the cotton market.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales totaling 202,600 RB for 2026/2027 were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (51,200 RB), Pakistan (40,600 RB) and China (38,400 RB). Net sales of 39,200 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Malaysia (30,800 RB), Honduras (7,700 RB) and Guatemala (500 RB). Exports of 149,500 RB were down 9 percent from the previous week and off 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (49,800 RB), India (25,300 RB), Pakistan (15,800 RB) and Mexico (15,200 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will benefit from a much drier weather pattern through the next two weeks that will be important in drying out bolls to reduce the risk of boll rot while bleaching cotton fibers white and allowing for harvesting to accelerate. Totally dry weather is not expected and light rain will fall on parts of the northern Panhandle today with a few more infrequent and light showers during the remainder of the period. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see heavy rain today into Sunday when some cotton discoloration and stringing out is possible while some local flooding may occur as well. A drier weather pattern will occur in most areas Monday into Oct. 15 and some cotton should be bleached white and harvesting will resume with exceptions in south Texas where additional showers will occur Monday.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.