Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 8 cents to $4.05 1/4, near the daily high and for the week down just 1/4 cent.
5-day outlook: The corn market bulls suffered a knock-down Tuesday but got back up Wednesday and then ended the week by scoring some strong counter punches that begin to suggest a seasonal price bottom may have been put in place earlier this week. Bulls will have to show some important follow-through buying strength next week to better suggest a near-term price bottom is indeed in place.
Our annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour starts Monday. Look for daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CT. Our final yields will be released on Friday, Aug. 21 at 1:30 p.m. CDT. We will produce our daily newsletters, though our “Crops Analysis” and “Livestock Analysis” will be replaced with an extended version of “After the Bell” next week.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. said much of the Corn Belt will see another two weeks of favorable weather conditions for crop development and very high production potential. Drier weather beginning late next week will be beneficial for early maturing corn.
90-day outlook: A bullish element for corn going forward is export demand for U.S. corn that has been strong due to current lower prices and a subdued U.S. dollar. That’s continuing to better drive exports and domestic demand. However, high input costs and eroding working capital have many producers pondering less U.S. corn acres in 2026-27, which could make for an interesting market dynamic in the coming months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 14 cents to $10.42 1/2, near the session high and for the week up 55 cents. September soybean meal fell 90 cents to $283.40, nearer the daily low and for the week up $6.80. September soybean oil gained 119 points to 53.18 cents and near the daily high after hitting a seven-week low early on. For the week, September bean oil rose 47 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market bulls had a very good week to suggest some more follow-through buying interest from the speculators next week. Focus next week will be on the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour that starts Monday. Look for daily updates from crop scouts and state results each evening at 8:00 p.m. CT.
A bullish NOPA crush report today also gives the soybean market some legs heading into next week. The U.S. soybean crush rose to a six-month high in July and exceeded most trade expectations. NOPA members crushed 195.699 million bushels last month, up 5.6% from the 185.270 million bushels in June and up 7% from a crush of 182.881 million bushels one year ago. It was the largest July crush ever reported by NOPA and the fifth-largest for any month on record, NOPA data showed.
30-day outlook: Extended weather forecasts for the U.S. still lean soybean-price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said there will be “very little concern” Midwest weather after recent rains and continued favorable soil moisture. There will be some net drying in the lower eastern Midwest and a few areas in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin through early next week. Some timely showers and thunderstorms will bring a little relief to the drier areas during mid-week next week and then drying will resume.
90-day outlook: A lack of new-crop U.S. soybean purchases from China continues to worry soybean market bulls, even though President Trump extended the trade truce for an additional 90-day period. The pace of new-crop soybean export sales is at a six-year low, though USDA reported impressive sales in this week’s export sales report. Soybean traders will continue to monitor U.S.-China trade talks, or lack thereof.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $5.27, near mid-range and for the week down 8 cents. December HRW wheat gained 2 1/2 cents to $5.28 1/2, near mid-range and on the week down 8 3/4 cents. December HRS futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.89 1/4 and down 8 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw some tepid short covering after hitting contract lows on Thursday. Good gains in corn and soybean futures markets likely spilled over into some buying interest in wheat markets today. Look for the near term to continue to see wheat traders eyeing the corn and soybean markets for daily price direction.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Canadian Prairies rainfall in the next seven days will still be greatest in eastern and northern production areas which will be good for helping to increase subsoil moisture after recent rain. Net drying will occur in southwestern production areas which shouldn’t be much of an issue due to favorable soil moisture. The drier-biased conditions in the southwest could also be beneficial for early season crop harvesting.
30-day outlook: U.S. winter wheat harvest is winding down and that means less commercial hedging pressure in the futures markets. Spring wheat has seen consolidative, sideways trade following a 92-cent drop from the June high to the August low. USDA’s lower-than-expected spring wheat production estimate Tuesday failed to excite the bulls. Spring wheat harvest continues to advance, though lags the five-year average pace.
90-day outlook: USDA this week lowered U.S. wheat ending stocks amid forecasts of increased export demand. Also, global wheat ending stocks were lowered to a 10-year low amid lower stocks in both Ukraine and the U.S. These are elements that will likely come closer to the front burner of the grain marketplace as U.S. harvests are completed.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures lost 14 points to 67.54 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 94 points.
5-day outlook: The bullish USDA U.S. cotton production update Tuesday sparked an initial rally in cotton but profit taking and technical selling turned trading action right back to choppy and sideways. However, it’s likely the bullish USDA data did put in a price floor for the cotton market that will not be below the August low of 65.88 in December futures.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas rainfall is expected to be limited over the next 10 days to two weeks, leading to net drying. Temperatures should be seasonable. However, the dryland crop needs moisture especially in the southwest. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential in the Blacklands and upper coast. South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested. U.S. Delta crops are drying down and timely rain is needed. The Delta may not see much rain until mid- to late-week next week. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation have received significant rain recently and more will fall to support long term crop development.
90-day outlook: Lower U.S. cotton acres could stir volatility as the calendar advances, especially amid the hurricane season. Increased U.S. stock market volatility during the historically turbulent months of September and October would likely mean more price volatility for cotton, too, with such action likely favoring the cotton market bears.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.