Corn
Price action: December corn rose 6 1/2 cents to $4.64 1/4, near the daily high and hit a five-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw good follow-through buying strength today, much of which was fund short covering and speculative and technical buying as prices have seen a bullish upside breakout on the daily bar chart and technicals have markedly improved.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 67% good to excellent, as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500 scale, with 500 being perfect), the corn crop declined 1.15 points to 371.62. Click here for more details.
World Weather Inc. today said the Midwest will see another week of highly favorable conditions for corn pollination and other crop development as there will be a lack of significant heat in much of the region along with moist soils and at least some rain. There will be brief periods of heat in and near eastern South Dakota where some areas will see highs in the middle and upper 90s today and Saturday. Warmer weather will occur Sunday into at least next week while a drier weather pattern occurs Monday into July 21 with western areas will be warmest where some crops may be stressed by the heat with early indications suggesting eastern South Dakota and nearby areas should be hottest. The west-central and southwestern Corn Belt should be driest overall and the lingering dry areas from eastern Nebraska into northwestern and north-central Iowa may soon see increasing crop stress as moisture from recent rain is lost to evaporation. “The coming heat and dryness will be poorly timed for pollinating corn in the warmer and drier areas and some reductions in yield potentials may result,” said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.55 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $11.97 3/4, near the daily high mid-range and poked to a five-week high. September soybean meal rose $3.30 to $314.50, near the daily high and hit a five-week high. September soybean oil rose 77 points to 68.16 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw follow-through buying today from Monday’s better gains. Fund short covering and fresh speculator buying have been featured in the complex early this week. Weather forecasts for the Midwest, while not overtly bullish, are now not so price-bearish.
China has purchased more soybeans from the U.S., Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. “State-owned firm Cofco has booked at least six cargoes of U.S. soybeans for loading between September and October, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Chinese buyers had already committed to buying 200,000 tons of American beans,” said the Bloomberg report.
USDA this morning reported daily export sales of 105,000 MT of U.S. soybean meal for delivery to Colombia during 2025-26.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 64% good to excellent as of Sunday, down one percentage point from the previous week. On our CCI, the soybean rating rose 0.36 points from last week to 367.16.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. Midwest crops benefited from the recent warmer and drier biased conditions. However, heavy rain during the holiday weekend in parts of Iowa, Illinois and a few areas to the east may have raised some crop quality concerns. There is still some concern for crops in the far northwestern Corn Belt and a few in the southeastern states where dryness continues. Excessive heat in the northwestern Corn Belt Sunday through Tuesday of next week will further stress some of those drier crops.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.14. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.14. First support is seen at $11.75 and then at $11.60.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $315.00 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $308.40 and then at this week’s low of $303.00.
Bean oil sees prices still trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is to close September prices above solid technical resistance at 70.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 69.00 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 65.42 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 4 1/2 cents to $6.18 1/2, near the daily high and hit a two-week high. September HRW gained 3 cents to $6.52 3/4, near the daily high and also poked to a two-week high early on. September spring wheat futures rose 3 1/2 cents to $6.33.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets mostly paused today following the good gains posted Monday. Look for the wheat futures markets to follow the lead of King Corn in the near term.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. winter wheat crop as 26% good to excellent and 47% poor to very poor as of Sunday, unchanged from the previous week. On our CCI, the HRW crop improved 2.39 points to 237.76 while SRW decreased 0.56 points to 368.46. The agency rated the spring wheat crop as 57% good to excellent as of Sunday, down 2 percentage points from the previous week. On our CCI, the rating fell 4.1 points to 358.06.
World weather today said scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest recently and those expected this week will slow crop maturation and wheat harvest progress, although some fieldwork will advance. Rain is expected periodically in spring wheat areas in the northern Plains supporting normal crop development, although there will be some holes in the precipitation and excessive heat that evolves next week could impact a few of those drier areas. Too much rain has been falling in parts of Canada and in central portions of Russia’s New Lands possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. This week’s weather will improve for Canada and remain wet in the FSU. Europe weather has been hot and dry recently stressing some crops. However, most of those outside of France had sufficient subsoil moisture to support small grain development without much concern. Eastern Europe will trend cooler and wetter in the coming week to 10 days, while dryness continues in the west.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.26 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.74. First resistance is seen at $6.20 and then at $6.26 1/2. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.85.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.64 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.52 3/4 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.34 and then at $6.20.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rallied 299 points to 81.30 cents and hit a five-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw heavy short covering and fresh speculator buying interest today amid recent news that the U.S. and China relations have warmed up, including recent China U.S. soybean buys. Cotton bulls are reckoning China could also pick up the pace on U.S. cotton purchases.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 16% poor to very poor condition, 38% fair and 46% good to excellent condition as of Sunday. The crop was 49% squaring and 14% setting bolls.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture especially in the dryland areas of the southwest.Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the coming week. However, the resulting rain may be disappointing to many areas and beneficial to only to a few. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are varying conditions with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. There is a big need for rain in the Carolinas and in a part of the central Delta, and most of the Texas crop areas will need rain soon.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend on the daily chart was soundly negated today and bulls are now working on a near-term price uptrend. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 83.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 82.00 cents and then at 82.50 cents. First support is seen at 80.00 cents and then at 79.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.