Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.24, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market bulls continue to show some signs of life at mid-week, as prices have posted gains every day this week. Short covering has been featured. Solid losses in the U.S. dollar index today added to the buying interest in corn futures.
Weather conditions in the Midwest still lean price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said beneficial rain fell on Corn Belt areas that have dried down recently in eastern South Dakota and portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri, while rain also fell on some other locations in the western Corn Belt and parts of the lower Midwest. “Much of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials, with an area of developing dryness and possibly some crop stress late this month in parts of the southwestern Corn Belt,” said World Weather.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended July 11, up 2,000 bpd 0.2%) from last week, but 19,000 bpd (1.7%) below the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 324,000 barrels to 23.635 million barrels.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 500,000 to 1.2 million MT for the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 400,000 to 900,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: December corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.24, nearer the session high. The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish key reversal up in December corn futures this week is one chart clue that a market bottom is in place. Still, prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.42 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.25 3/4 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.18 3/4 and then at Tuesday’s low of $4.13.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans rallied 18 3/4 cents to $10.20 1/2, ending just shy of the session high, while August soymeal rose $3.10 to $268.40. August soyoil rose 26 points to 54.82 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Short-covering meal strength fueled a midweek rally in soybeans after bears scored just short of a 90-cent selloff from the June 20 high to this week’s low. Meanwhile, the Trump administration finalized a trade agreement with Indonesia, which also ignited optimism, as the pact reduces the proposed tariff rate from 32% to 19% on $4.5 billion in agricultural imports and $15 billion in U.S. energy purchases.
However, while soybeans have extended ever-so-slightly from technically oversold conditions, technical headwinds loom overhead and could prove difficult to overcome without a catalyst. At present, weather is seemingly favorable through much of the Midwest, though the crucial period for soybeans arrives with the month of August. There is some potential for drier and warmer weather next week, although World Weather Inc. notes the impact should be low.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 200,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 400,000 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis:
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat gained 3 cents to $5.61 3/4, near the high end of today’s trading range. December HRW wheat fell 3/4 cent to $5.45 1/4, whileDecember spring wheat futures closed 1 1/4 cents lower at $6.19 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures were mixed today, not seeing the stronger gains made in the other major grains. HRW fell the most, hitting the contract low again today. Spring wheat was down slightly and mostly choppy throughout the day. SRW saw modest gains by close. The US dollar weakened today after making gains through most of July, which may spur some demand for exports in the long term.
Areas of Nebraska and South Dakota received spotty rainfall last night and into this morning according to World Weather Inc. This will likely see a continued improvement in spring wheat conditions for areas receiving precipitation. Continued rain in the Midwest raises some concerns on the ability to complete harvest in a timely manner. Overall, weather concerns in the Midwest are minimal. The harvest was off to a slower start than normal this year but had nearly caught up to the five year average as of July 13. Wheat producing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia are now forecasted to be warmer and drier than previously forecasted, according to World Weather Inc.Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 300,000 to 700,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Despite its gains today, SRW is still below where it started for the week and is 13 cents below the 10-day moving average. The bears’ will continue to target closing below the longer-term support of about $5.55 1/4. Bulls’ will be hopeful to continue today’s gains and get closer to the recent resistance around $5.74. HRW continues to consolidate in sideways trade, with support stemming from the May 13 low of $4.14 ½, while resistance stands at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages. Today spring wheat experienced resistance around $6.24 1/2 and consistent support at $6.18
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 3 points to 68.56 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton market bulls have shown some strength this week but need to keep it up to suggest a price uptrend can be sustained. A bullish weekly high close in December cotton on Friday afternoon would be just what the doctor ordered for the bulls. The tepid gains today were due in part to a lower U.S. dollar index.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton needs warmer temperatures and some additional rainfall to induce ideal cotton development. The Texas Blacklands will also experience a limited rainfall pattern and warmer temperatures, while a favorable mix of weather impacts the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. Warmer temperatures advertised for this weekend and next week will be good for cotton.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report will be closely examined by cotton traders.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.00 cents and then at 69.52 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.21 cents and then at this week’s low of 67.36 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.