Corn
Price action: July corn rose 1 1/2 cents to $4.38 1/2, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures held a muted tone into and post report, despite USDA’s trim to both old- and new-crop ending stocks. Meanwhile, a diving U.S. dollar and a rebound in crude, after facing pressure in early trade, certainly failed to draw much excitement. However, pressure in SRW wheat and soybeans amid chatter of a lower biodiesel quota was at least partially responsible for today’s price action.
USDA pegged old-crop ending stocks at 1.365 billion bu., down from 1.415 billion bu. in May amid a 50 million bu. increase in exports. Meanwhile, new-crop was pegged at 1.75 billion bu., down from 1.800 billion bu. last month, due to the reduction in beginning stocks. Both figures were well below the average pre-report estimate. USDA pegged 2024-25 global ending stocks at 285.04 MMT, down from 287.29 MMT in May, with 2025-26 global ending stocks at 275.244 MMT, down from 277.84 MMT in May.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export sales data, which showed net corn sales of 791,300 MT for the week ended June 5, down 16% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average. New-crop sales totaled 29,600 MT. Both were within their respective range of expectations.
Technical analysis: July corn continues to battle resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.38 3/4 and $4.46 1/4, though initial support held at $4.33 3/4. While bears have the near-term technical advantage, recent coiling suggests a possible near-term market bottom has been forged. However, bears will look to breach this week’s low of $4.29 1/4 in an effort to move below $4.25, while bulls will need to overcome the 40- and 200-day moving average, trading at $4.57 1/4 and $4.62 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 8 1/4 cents to $10.42 1/4 and closed nearer session lows. July meal inched 30 cents higher to $294.5. July bean oil slid 41 points to 47.61 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Old-crop soybean futures saw persistent weakness today as traders were disappointed to see no change in the USDA balance sheet. USDA’s 2024-25 soybean carryover is unchanged from May and just 1 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes to the supply- or demand-side of the old-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2024-25 at $9.95, unchanged from May. For 2025-26 soybeans, USDA made no changes, keeping carryover at 295 million bushels. Ending stocks are 3 million bu. below trade expectations. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.25, unchanged from last month. We are a little higher on old-crop, anticipating the recent slowdown in export sales and shipments to weigh on the overall export total. For new-crop, we have higher acres than USDA but also believe USDA’s yield estimate is too high. We anticipate stocks falling to 325 million bushels in 2025-26.
Rain fell on much of eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota with rain extending into parts of Iowa, says World Weather Inc, while most other areas of the Midwest saw dry and improving to favorable conditions for fieldwork. Frequent rounds of rain and thunderstorms will continue through Friday of next week, ensuring ample soil moisture but interrupting any late season plantings.
USDA reported soybean exports sales during the week ended June 5 totaled 61,400 MT, a marketing-year low and down 68% from the previous week and 74% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of pre-report expectations from 100,000 to 500,000 MT. Net sales for 2025-26 totaled 58,100 MT.
Technical analysis: July soybeans led weakness today, continuing yesterday’s reversal from downtrend resistance. Bulls proved unable to overcome downtrend resistance at $10.57 1/2 yesterday, marking that as key resistance. Additional resistance stands at $10.50 then $10.48 1/2, the 100-day moving average, on the way. Continued selling pressure finds support at $10.40 then the June 2 for-the-move low close at $10.33 1/2.
July meal futures continue to trade sideways on the daily bar chart. Bulls continue to struggle breaking prices much above 40-day moving average resistance at $296.7. A break above that mark would likely have bulls targeting psychological resistance at $300.0. Support stands at today’s low of $293.1 then the $290.0 mark.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.26 1/2, near the session low and hit a three-week low. July HRW wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.22 3/4, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. Spring wheat futures saw relative strength, up around 4 cents at time of writing.
Fundamental analysis: After showing bullish promise to end the trading week last Friday, the winter wheat futures bulls have laid an egg, with price losses every day so far this week. A drop in the U.S. dollar index to a three-year low today offered little support to the winter wheat markets. Nor could crude oil prices hitting a nine-week high.
USDA’s monthly supply and demand report today showed 2024-25 U.S. wheat carryover steady with one month ago and 1 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA put the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $5.50, unchanged from last month. For 2025-26 U.S. wheat, carryover is projected down 25 million bu. from May and 26 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes on the supply-side of the balance sheet and increased estimated exports 25 million bu. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5.40, up 10 cents from from May.
USDA earlier this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 388,900 MT for the week ended June 5, which included 184,000 MT of undelivered sales carried over from 2024-25. Sales were shy of pre-report expectations.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country “some improvement is likely in the region in the next seven days as a ridge of high pressure builds in to some extent. This ridge will not be very strong, but should help induce greater sunshine and less rainfall compared to recent weeks”. There will still be some thunderstorm activity but frequency of the rain will be less than it has been, allowing better drying conditions. Additional improvement is expected in the second week of the outlook as drier-biased conditions become a little more persistent for a short period of time. In the northern Plains, beneficial rainfall will occur in the next seven days “that will help provide some restoration of soil moisture and benefit winter, spring, and summer crops.” The dryness relief will still be most important in Montana since this is the driest part of the region, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated this week. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the June high of $5.57 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.06 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.37 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.26 and then at $5.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the June high of $5.51. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $5.34 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.21 1/2 and then at $5.10.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 33 points to 65.14 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to languish in a sideways and choppy trading range at lower price levels. Cotton futures got no support from the U.S. dollar index dropping to a three-year low today and crude oil prices rising to a nine-week high.
USDA’s monthly supply and demand report showed 2024-25 U.S. cotton carryover down 400,000 bales from last month. USDA made no change to the supply-side of the cotton balance sheet and increased estimated exports 400,000 bales (to 11.5 million). USDA put the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 63 cents, unchanged from May. For 2025-26 cotton, carryover is projected down 900,000 bales from last month and 700,000 bales below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA’s crop projection was cut 500,000 bales to 14 million. The agency left U.S. planted acres unchanged from last month at 9.87 million but cut harvested acres 180,000 to 8.19 million. USDA also cut the projected yield by 12 lbs. per acre to 820 pounds. USDA made no change to the demand-side of the balance sheet from last month. USDA put the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 62 cents, unchanged from May.
USDA also reported weekly U.S. cotton net sales of 60,200 running bales (RB) for 2024/2025 were down 45 percent from the previous week and down 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 36,100 RB for 2025/2026 were reported. Exports of 236,300 RB were down 25 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. China was notably absent from fresh U.S. sales and shipments this week.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas shower and thunderstorm activity recently improved cotton crop and field conditions for better late-season planting and aggressive early season crop development. “Drier weather should now evolve, favoring more routine field operations. Field conditions in portions of the Delta are drying down, although more rain is expected soon to maintain concern over crop conditions. Portions of the southeastern U.S. will get rain in the coming week with coastal areas of the Carolinas and a part of eastern Georgia wettest. Much of Florida will also get significant rain while the interior crop areas of the southeastern states may not get as much moisture, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, trading has been choppy and sideways and there is strong chart support just below the market. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 67.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the May low of 64.51 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.29 cents. First support is seen at 64.51 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.