Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1/2 cent to $4.51 1/4, near mid-range after hitting a 3.5-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild short covering and perceived bargain buying early on today. However, gains were eroded by the close. Modest gains in wheat futures prices also limited selling interest in corn futures. U.S. corn harvest is also progressing rapidly and on the downhill side, prompting commercial hedge selling pressure.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.304 MMT during the week ended Oct. 22, down 15% from the previous week but up 32% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. corn harvesting in the Midwest should advance well overall during the next two weeks around some mostly light precipitation into Sunday that will favor southwestern into central areas before a significant precipitation event Monday into next Thursday temporarily stalls farming activity. A close watch will be made on rain next week and although some moderate to heavy rain is likely, the soil should be dry enough to absorb much of the precipitation without becoming excessively muddy.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.56 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.47 1/2 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $12.34 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a 2.5-month low early on. December soybean meal lost $6.40 to $329.30, nearer the daily low and hit another two-month low. December soybean oil rose 8 points to 65.64 cents, near the daily high and hit a six-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw technical selling pressure, led by meal, amid existing downtrends in place on the daily bar charts. Beans and meal have been pressured by commercial hedge selling as the U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, and by a depreciating Brazilian real currency that is making Brazilian beans more price-competitive on world trade markets.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 2.576 MMT during the week ended Oct. 22, down 9% from the previous week but up noticeably from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 1.8 to 3.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather in much of the U.S. this week will linger over the next couple of days but rain is expected to interfere with farming activity late this week and into next week in some areas. Meantime, southern Brazil benefited from recent drying but rain developed during the weekend and was expected to continue frequently through the next 10 days. Center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will increase Thursday through next week, but a close watch on that rain will be warranted since it may be erratic and light.
Technical analysis: January soybeans see a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing January prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.26 1/2 and then at $12.15.
Soybean meal futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $345.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $320.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $336.50 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $326.60 and then at $325.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 70.08 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 67.52 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.50 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.03 3/4, near mid-range. December HRW rose 2 1/4 cents to $6.45 1/4, nearer the daily high and poked to a four-month low early on. December spring wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.24 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets bulls are working to stabilize prices and made a bit of progress today. China has reportedly inquired about purchasing U.S. wheat after state-owned COFCO Corp asked about soft red winter wheat for delivery into China, with shipments for loading in the New Year.
USDA reported upbeat weekly wheat sales totaled 849,800 MT during the week ended Oct. 22, a marketing year high, which were up noticeably from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales were well above analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, frequent precipitation will fall across the wheat region through the coming week. Soil moisture should be favorable for wheat emergence and establishment with some support for late planting. In the Northern Plains, seasonable frosts and hard freezes will occur across the crop region in the coming days. Light precipitation expected in the next few days will be beneficial in supporting winter crops and gradually improving drought conditions. Heavier precipitation will develop this weekend into early next week, which will be more beneficial, particularly in eastern Montana and North Dakota where drought conditions have been the most severe.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $5.90 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $6.14 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $6.27 1/2. First support is seen at $5.90 1/2 and then at $5.75.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $6.56 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $6.66 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.36 1/2 and then at $6.28.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 35 points to 78.50 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more short covering today and perceived bargain hunting today. Weaker crude oil prices and U.S. stock indexes did limit the upside in cotton futures today.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed sales of U.S. upland totaling 216,500 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up 8 percent from the previous week and up 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (52,100 RB), Turkey (40,800 RB) and Vietnam (35,000 RB). Net sales of 38,300 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Indonesia (17,000 RB), Honduras (8,000 RB) and China (5,300 RB). Exports of 160,800 RB were down 18 percent from the previous week and off 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (65,200 RB), Pakistan (26,600 RB), Turkey (13,900 RB) and Mexico (10,200 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see rain into Friday along with showers Sunday into Tuesday, resulting in additional quality declines while production cuts may result from some boll rot or stringing out of cotton fibers as well. Much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will receive 0.50-1.75” of rain and locally more today into Friday with some pockets of lighter rain and some bands of heavier rain and the northern Panhandle seeing the least rain. Most areas will be dry Saturday with light showers in a few locations. Scattered showers will occur Sunday into Tuesday and much of the region will receive up to 0.60” of rain and locally more with the northern Panhandle wettest. An important period of drier weather is expected Wednesday into Nov. 12 and harvesting should steadily increase while some discolored cotton is bleached white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain while much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures have this week seen a bearish downside breakout from a sideways trading range on the daily chart, also breaking a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 77.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 80.41 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 77.61 cents and then at 77.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.