Corn
Price action: December corn rose 2 cents to $4.62, near the daily high after hitting a three-week-low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw technical selling pressure much of the session today as prices are trending down. However, a late short-covering rally lifted prices by the close. Weather in the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish. A higher U.S. dollar index today was also a bearish outside-market element for corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 116,700 MT during the week ended July 30, a marketing-year low and down 68% from the previous week and 70% from the four-week average. Net sales of 1.03 MMT were reported for 2026-27. Analysts expected old-crop sales to range from 200,000 to 600,000 MT and new-crop sales to range from 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
Expana cut its forecast for the European Union’s 2026-27 corn harvest by 4.6 MMT to 44.5 MMT, which is down 13.9% from year-ago and 19% below the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks and a lack of significant heat through at least the week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potentials are quite high in much of the Midwest deep into the month, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt. Strong showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday will likely bring additional relief from dryness to parts of the region and with another round of showers likely Aug. 15-20 yield potentials should stabilize or possibly increase during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $4.66 1/4 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 3 cents to $11.77 3/4, near the daily high. September soybean meal rose $1.40 to $311.60, nearer the daily high. September soybean oil gained 2 points to 67.74 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex markets today saw mild technical selling pressure for much of the session as prices in all three markets are trapped in downtrends on the daily charts. However, a late short-covering rally lifted prices above unchanged by the close. Weather still leans price-bearish for the complex. A rebound in the U.S. dollar index today was also negative for the complex. Bulls got some traction today from USDA reporting daily sales of 122,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27. The agency also this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 32,200 MT during the week ended July 30, a marketing year low and down 89% from the previous week and down 79% from the four-week average. Net sales of 903,900 MT were reported for 2026-27. Analysts expected net old-crop sales to range from 100,000 to 400,000 MT and new-crop sales between 900,000 MT and 1.55 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said milder temperatures and some periodic showers and thunderstorms in the all of the U.S. Midwest in the coming 10 days will be welcome. Crop stress in the northwest has been reduced, although soil moisture deficits will remain and that region will need to be closely monitored for dryness and crop stress later in August, when warming returns. Dryness in canola, sunseed and a few other coarse grain and oilseed production areas in southern Canada’s Prairies and the northwestern U.S. Plains will be closely monitored for a possible further decline in potential yield.
Technical analysis: A price downtrend is in place on the daily chart for November beans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.90 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.67 1/4 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal sees a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $312.50 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $308.70 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil sees a fledgling price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.48 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.51 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW fell 11 cents to $6.31 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a nearly four-week low. September HRW lost 13 3/4 cents to $6.99 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low. September spring wheat futures fell 12 1/2 cents to $6.71, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling featured as technical support at this week’s lows was taken out on the downside. A rally in the U.S. dollar index today was also a negative outside market for wheat.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 296,400 MT during the week ended July 30, up 4% from the previous week and 6% from the four-week average. Analysts expected net sales to range from 250,000 and 450,000 MT.
Expana lowered its production forecast for soft wheat production by 1.5 MMT to 126.8 MMT, which is 7.2% below last season.
World weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, very warm to hot temperatures will dominate the southern U.S. Plains for the next two weeks. The heat and lack of rain will allow drought to prevail in many areas and expand into other areas. In the meantime, a mix of warm and humid conditions and periodic showers and thunderstorms in the central Plains will be good for summer crops. Crop stress in the southern Plains resulting from hot, dry, conditions will cut into yield especially for unirrigated crops. Wheat harvesting should continue to advance around periodic showers. In the Northern Plains, comfortable temperatures in the low 70s to mid-80s will occur in eastern portions of the crop region, with mid-80s to upper 90s persisting in parts of South Dakota and Montana. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also occur in some areas in the next week. While cool temperatures are welcome in the east, more rain will be needed to alleviate some of the drought in the region, particularly in South Dakota and Montana where conditions have recently been the hottest and driest. Portions of western and northern North Dakota need rain, too.
Technical analysis: Price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.49 and then at this week’s high of $6.59 1/2. First support is seen at $6.20 and then at $6.10.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $7.10 and then at this week’s high of $7.26 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.90 and then at $6.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 14 points to 83.16 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today paused following recent gains that pushed prices to a 2.5-month high Wednesday. Traders also did some position evening today ahead of Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report. A rebound in the U.S. dollar index today also limited buying interest in cotton futures.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales reductions of upland totaling 55,900 RB for 2025/2026--a marketing-year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (4,100 RB), Pakistan (2,200 RB) and Nicaragua (900 RB). Net sales of 242,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Vietnam (132,400 RB), Turkey (41,600 RB) and Honduras (20,500 RB). Exports of 222,800 RB were down 5 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (88,900 RB), Pakistan (35,500 RB) and Turkey (19,500 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. southern Plains, warm to hot and dry conditions continued in much of the region Wednesday and stress to cotton increased in dryland areas, while light rain fell on a few locations in the northern Panhandle where much of the moisture was quickly lost to evaporation. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and a few south Texas locations, while crop stress increases elsewhere.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the May high of 88.08 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 79.20 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 84.08 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 80.39 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.