Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.60 1/2, nearer the daily low and closed at a nine-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls are working to stabilize the market from its four-week-old bleed lower. Charts remain near-term bearish, which invited modest selling from technical specs today. Meantime, U.S. corn harvest is progressing rapidly, prompting better commercial hedge selling in corn futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.527 MMT during the week ended Oct. 15, up 36% from the previous week and up 87% from the four-week average. Net sales topped analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 700,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather is predicted in much of the U.S. this week. Any precipitation that occurs will be brief and light. Meantime, southern Brazil has benefited from recent drying, but rain is expected to resume later this week which may bring back some concern about too much moisture. Center west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be limited through the weekend and then rain is expected to evolve and increase next week. The moisture should improve planting, emergence and establishment conditions.
Technical analysis: December corn sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.80. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.68 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $4.74. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.53 1/2 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 7 3/4 cents to $12.53, near mid-range. December soybean meal fell $1.00 to $347.30, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil gained 77 points to 66.74 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean and bean oil futures saw tepid short covering today following recent selling pressure. Meal traded on both sides of unchanged today. Gains were limited by commercial hedge selling as the U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly.
Bulls also got support this morning from USDA reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 202,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 2.841 MMT during the week ended Oct.15, which were up noticeably from the previous week and the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 1.8 to 3.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soybean harvesting is occurring rapidly in most areas and will continue during the next two weeks. There will be some precipitation in most of the western Corn Belt Sunday into Tuesday and many western and northern areas Wednesday into next Thursday, as well as much of the Midwest Oct. 30-Nov. 2. Today’s forecast is drier for Wednesday into next Thursday than what was advertised Wednesday.
Technical analysis: November soybeans see a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $12.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $12.65 and then at $12.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.35 3/4 and then at $12.26.
Soybean meal futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $344.20. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $354.80 and then at this week’s high of $360.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $343.10 and then at $340.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 70.08 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 67.52 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 65.55 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 1/2 cents to $6.24 3/4, nearer the daily low and closed at a three-month low close. December HRW fell 7 1/4 cents to $6.65 3/4, near the daily low and hit a more-than-three-month low. December spring wheat futures fell 9 3/4 cents to $6.41 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling today as prices are in firm downtrends on the daily bar charts. New reports this week that the Presidents Trump, Xi and Putin will soon discuss the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia reportedly receptive to cease-fire talks, have limited buying interest in wheat futures this week.
USDA this morning reported lackluster weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 239,600 MT for 2026-27, down 25% from the previous week and down 28%from the four-week average. Net sales were short of analysts’ pre-report range of expectations from 250,000 to 550,000 MT.
SovEcon lowered its Ukraine 2026-27 grain export forecast by 5.1 MMT to 33 MMT and reported July through October wheat shipments are the lowest since 2011-12 as Odesa remains blocked and vessels are hit.
Argentina’s wheat harvest for the 2026-27 season is expected to total 23.8 MMT, up from the 21 million estimated last month due to higher-than-expected yields, according to the Rosario Stock Exchange.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country rain expected in the high Plains region this weekend into early next week will prove to be extremely beneficial and welcome since some of the driest areas in hard red winter wheat areas is in Colorado, western Kansas and western Nebraska. Improved planting and emergence conditions will evolve after the precipitation falls. Cooling next week may reduce soil temperatures, but crop establishment will continue. In the Northern Plains, warmer-biased weather will give way to cooler temperatures later this week into early next week. Precipitation will move in with the colder airmass, bringing rain and mixed precipitation to Montana and the Dakotas Friday into Saturday. Some snow may be possible in Montana, though any accumulations will melt by Saturday afternoon.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $6.43 3/4 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.21 and then at $6.10.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $6.28. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $7.92 1/4 and then at $7.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.65 1/4 and then at $6.60.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 104 points to 80.79 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a downside price correction from this week’s gains. Sharply lower U.S. stock index prices today helped to pressure cotton futures.
USDA this morning reported net U.S. cotton export sales totaling 199,600 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up 36 percent from the previous week and up 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (94,500 RB), Bangladesh (34,200 RB) and Turkey (33,700 RB). Exports of 196,400 RB were up 40 percent from the previous week and up 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (78,900 RB), Pakistan (26,400 RB) and Turkey (18,600 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather and good harvest progress into Friday before periods of wet weather Saturday into Tuesday (western areas will be wettest) and a lower confidence period Oct. 30-31 slows harvesting, causes quality declines and possibly some production cuts due to boll rot. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next two weeks and the remaining cotton harvest will be slowed by the rain, while much of the cotton has likely already been harvested.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures have been trading sideways on the daily chart for two weeks. However, a price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the October low of 77.05 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 82.25 cents and then at 83.00 cents. First support is seen at 80 cents and then at last week’s low of 79.38 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.