Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3/4 cent to $5.28 1/4, near the session high after hitting a four-week low early on. For the week, December corn was up 3/4 cent.
5-day outlook: The corn futures market saw heavy selling pressure early in the session but clawed back all the losses by the close. A lower U.S. dollar index today did aid the corn market bulls.
Next week’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report will provide the official ending stocks of the 2025-26 crop year. With most of the balance sheet settled at this point, feed and residual will be the key category to watch for potential changes. Harvest continues mostly unimpeded in the southern U.S., while many Midwestern farmers are sidelined by rain.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoon.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said crop areas west of the Mississippi River will see a wet weather into Oct. 3 that will slow fieldwork with multiple rounds of heavy rain from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas into Iowa and northern Missouri. Much of Iowa and some nearby areas already have nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding is likely to result from rain into Saturday and again Tuesday into Wednesday while delays to fieldwork will be extended deeper into October. Much of the region is still expected to see little rain Oct. 4-9 and gradual improvements in conditions for fieldwork will occur in the wetter areas while a steady increase in fieldwork occurs elsewhere. Areas east of the Mississippi River will see quickly improving conditions for fieldwork during the next several days as little rain is expected into Tuesday before a period of wet weather occurs late Tuesday into Sat., Oct. 3. Recent and additional drying into Tuesday should allow most fields to absorb the coming rain without becoming excessively muddy and fieldwork should resume in most areas when drier weather returns Oct. 4-9.
90-day outlook: Harvesting and commercial hedge pressure will continue in the coming weeks, which will add to selling pressure in corn futures. The stronger U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market is also a headwind for the grains markets, making U.S. grain more expensive to purchase on the world market.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 1/2 cents to $13.19, near the daily high and for the week up 15 1/2 cents. December soybean meal fell $1.40 to $371.00, nearer the daily high and for the week up $12.40. December bean oil rose 29 points to 67.84 cents, nearer the daily high, after hitting a three-week low early on, and for the week down 38 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw heavier selling pressure early in the session, but were able to erase those losses by the close. The rebound from overnight lows came after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CNBC this morning the U.S. and China have reached agreements covering a “subset” of non-sensitive goods that could be traded on more favorable terms. Greer said the Trump administration will release more details Monday, but did not specify which products are covered, how tariffs could change or when the terms would take effect.
Soybean processors in the western Midwest are offering hefty premiums for immediate deliveries as persistent rains delay early harvest, tightening supplies and forcing some plants to scale back production. Farmers that were able to harvest in parts of the Midwest found a surprising bump in basis.
Monday afternoon comes the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Next Wednesday’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report will provide the official ending stocks of the 2025-26 crop year. With most of the balance sheet settled at this point, feed and residual will be the key category to watch for potential changes.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said additional waves of rain coming to the western U.S. Corn Belt during the coming week will delay fieldwork and raise some quality concerns in the wetter areas. Canola in South Africa and Australia is suspected of being well-established and poised to perform well, although there is some concern over El Nino’s influence on spring and summer weather in the east of Australia where heat and dryness are evolving and likely to persist. Early season rainfall in parts of Brazil led to some earlier than usual planting of soybeans. Recent rain has been a little erratic, but still favorable in some areas. Greater rain is expected next week and on into early October.
90-day outlook: Following weeks of preparation, the long-awaited Trump-Xi meeting took place this week. A key two-month extension of the trade truce with the U.S. was announced, which pushed the deadline to January 10, past the traditional primary soybean export window. Soy oil faced pressure from crude oil prices dropping as negotiations on conflicts in the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz looked a bit more promising.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 3/4 cents to $7.03 1/4, nearer the daily high after hitting a five-week low early on, and for the week down 11 cents. December HRW wheat lost 5 cents to $7.62, nearer the daily high, hit a six-week low early on, and for the week down 21 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $7.13 1/2, near mid-range and for the week down 27 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation as price downtrends are in place on the daily bar charts. A sell off in the U.S. dollar index today did help the wheat markets move up from daily lows. Still, today’s technically bearish weekly low closes set the table for some follow-through technical selling early next week.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey had stepped up efforts to reestablish the Black Sea grain corridor. Erdogan said he had discussed the issue again with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and received a positive response.
Ukraine’s grain stocks totaled 24.6 MMT as of Sept. 1, up 10 MMT from the same date a year ago, according to analyst APK-Inform.
The next major data dump for the wheat market will come next Wednesday with the USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains Summary, which includes a detailed breakdown of wheat production by class.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Europe continues to struggle for wheat- and barley-planting moisture and not much is expected into Monday, but rain is expected after that to begin improving the situation. In the meantime, the Danube River Basin will stay drier than usual. Rain is expected to fall periodically in China’s winter wheat region and timely rain along with cooling temperatures should impact U.S. wheat areas. There may also be some moisture in Ukraine and a part of Russia’s Southern Region, though greater amounts may be needed. In contrast, parts of Canada’s Prairies are still struggling with this year’s harvest and weather conditions are improving – at least for a while this week. Southwestern Australia is also expected to produce quite well this season and conditions in Victoria and southeastern South Australia should be favorable, although not ideal as the region dries down. Argentina’s wheat is well established and a little rain would be welcome. Showers are expected next week and the moisture is needed most in the west where it is dry. Southern Brazil wheat is rated favorably. However, rainy weather in the next 10 days will delay harvesting slow maturation and may reduce grain quality across Parana and a few neighboring areas. There is concern that too much rain will negatively impact southern Brazil crops later this spring.
90-day outlook: Global wheat supplies, weather concerns and the Super El Nino, as well as ongoing grain-shipping constraints out of the Black Sea region, will remain focal points for the wheat markets in the coming few months. However, the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire will remain in the background for bullish traders. Rains across HRW country have restored soil moisture enough to encourage planting. Despite recent selling pressure, prices still remain well above their year-ago levels. Pressure from harvest should wane with grain now in the bins.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 60 points to 82.71 cents, near mid-range and for the week were up 156 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw more technical selling pressure. The near-term technical posture for cotton remains bearish, with a price downtrend on the daily bar chart still in place, which will keep the chart-based bears confident early next week.
The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton is at 66.09 cents per pound, effective Sept. 25, down from 68.92 cents the prior week, and the lowest so far for the 2026/27 marketing year. However, it remains more than 11 cents above the mark that would trigger a loan deficiency payment.
Traders will be eyeing Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said too much rain is predicted for parts of Texas cotton country during the coming week will induce some short-term quality declines and raise worry over possible boll rot. Drier weather will be needed later in October. The U.S. Delta and Texas Blacklands have been too hot and mostly dry recently stressing some crops. Cooling is underway and there may eventually be some rain next week. Cotton in most other U.S. production areas is in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Meantime, Xinjiang, China weather will become a little unsettled this week with periodic showers, raising a little fiber quality concern. Cooling is also expected with some frost and light freezes possible during the late weekend and more likely early next week. India’s early season northern crop and that of Pakistan likely yielded well this year. Harvesting of that early crop should be getting under way. Australia planting should be getting started in a few irrigated areas. Excessive heat and dryness will restrict dryland planting later this year.
90-day outlook: Recent U.S. economic data has shown a resilient U.S. economy, which is good for consumer confidence and suggests better demand for apparel. However, inflation readings are still running warm the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike will likely be followed by one more rate hike before the end of the year. Those are not good developments for better consumer confidence this upcoming holiday season. Soft mill buying and cheaper competing origins may continue to pressure cotton futures in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.