Corn
Price action: September corn rose 1 1/4 cent to $3.99 1/4, while December futures rose 1 1/4 cent to $4.15 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures posted modest short-covering gains after notching a fresh contract low in the overnight session. However, overhead technicals and Friday’s supply and demand update from the USDA will likely keep a lid on extended short-covering activity. Meanwhile, weather conditions are expected to remain favorable for most production areas of the next 10 days to two weeks, with seasonal temps and periodic rains likely across the Corn Belt, Delta and Southeast.
The Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged 1.085 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, up from 1.076 million bpd the previous week and 1.054 million bpd the same week last year. Stocks slid to 24.0 million bpd, down from 24.1 million the previous week but up from 23.6 million barrels the same week last year.
USDA will release weekly export sales data early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 375,000 to 900,000 MT for 2024-25 and 150,000 to 700,000 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis: September corn futures edged to a new contract low of $3.96 1/4, which will now serve as initial support, with additional support serving at $3.95 1/4, $3.92 1/2 and $3.88 1/4. Meanwhile, resistance will stand at $4.02 ¼, then the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.07 1/2 to $4.22 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans fell 12 1/4 cents to $10.09, a three-month low close, while August meal fell $1.30 to $269.40. August soyoil closed down 82 points at 53.29 cents.
Fundamental analysis: August soybeans carved a three-month low, extending the post Fourth-of-July selloff to a third straight session. Continued meal weakness was accompanied by profit-taking in soyoil, which was a recipe for weakness. USDA’s upcoming WASDE Report will likely continue to limit a move higher.
Trade uncertainties also continue to lend a bearish tone amid a lack of confirmed trade deals. President Trump sent a new round of letters today, with levies set to hit in August on imported goods. Trump stated he would levy a 30% rate on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, with 25% duties on productions from Brunei and Moldova and a 20% rate on goods from the Philippines. These figures were largely in line with rates initially announced in April.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 300,000 to 600,000 MT for 2024-25 and between 50,000 and 400,000 MT for 2025-26.
Technical analysis: August soybean futures notched the lowest close since April 8, ending the session below support at $10.16 3/4 and $10.12 1/4, which will now serve as initial resistance. Bears will continue to work towards securing a close below support at $10.00, then the April 7 low of $9.82 3/4. Meanwhile, bulls will need to overcome resistance at the 10-, 100-, 200-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $10.32 to $10.48 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 1 1/4 cents to $5.67 1/4, near mid-range. December HRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.47 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a seven-week low early on. December spring wheat futures closed a penny lower at $6.50.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets continue to suffer spillover pressure from the recent declines in corn and soybean futures prices. However, hard red winter wheat futures are getting beat down the most. The HRW market will have to stabilize before the winter wheat market bulls can hope for a reprieve from the speculative sellers.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, conditions over the next two weeks “will be nearly ideal for summer crop development with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. The rain may cause some winter wheat harvest delays, mainly in some pockets where the rain is greatest, but this is unlikely to be a big issue.” In the northern Plains, rainfall in the next two weeks will be greatest and most-favorable in the eastern half of the region. Montana and the western Dakotas will not be completely dry, but net drying is likely in much of this area which will lead to some more crop stress in unirrigated fields, said World Weather.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 600,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year. Traders are also looking ahead to Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the SRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.62 1/4 and then at the June low of $5.56 3/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.86. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.38 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.59 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $5.73 1/4. First support is seen at $5.38 1/2 and then at $5.30.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 40 points to 67.78 cents after reaching a two-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures turned modestly higher following three consecutive days of selling, though technical constraints continued to limit buyers. The marketplace was anticipating the early afternoon release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, in which traders hoped to extract new clues on the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy. The FOMC minutes contained no major, markets-moving surprises, but said rate cuts are still likely this year.
World Weather Inc. notes the two-week outlook remains mostly favorable for cotton development in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma where isolated to scattered showers most days during the period will slow drying rates to help preserve existing soil moisture. Meanwhile, isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur most days through Sunday in portions of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend and South Texas, which should be great enough to be supportive for development in much of the region over the next two weeks.
USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report on Thursday, which will be closely scrutinized by traders.
Technical analysis: December cotton continues to face resistance at the 20-, 40-, 10- and 100-day moving averages, layered from 67.87 cents to 68.55 cents, while support lies at 66.94 cents and the June 23 low of 66.27 cents. Bulls remain focused on taking out the June 27 high of 69.52 cents, while bears look to wipe out the June low.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.