Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 5 3/4 cents to $4.18, near the session high after hitting a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw short covering today, following the recent strong selling pressure. Gains were somewhat limited by bearish daily outside-market forces that included a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices.
Weather in the U.S. Midwest remains price-bearish for corn. World Weather Inc. today said rain fell on a large part of the Midwest during the weekend, “with some of the most beneficial rain occurring from Indiana to Kentucky where the topsoil had recently firmed up, while rain was minimal in some southwestern areas where a rain would be beneficial before temperatures warm next week.” By the last days of the month the southwestern Corn Belt should be much drier than today and some crops should be stressed as topsoil moisture will likely be short while subsoil moisture should still be great enough to prevent serious crop stress, said World Weather.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn export inspections of 1.29 MMT for the week ended July 10, down 276,787 MT from the previous week and near the low end of the pre-report range of expectations. This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 74% good to excellent conditions as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 68% in good to excellent conditions last year at the same time.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, if there is good follow-through buying in December corn on Tuesday then a bullish key reversal up on the daily bar chart would be confirmed. But right now prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.30. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.20 and then at $4.25. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.11 1/2 and then at today’s contract low of $4.07 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans fell 3 1/4 cents to $10.0, the lowest close since April 8, while August meal fell $2.160 to $267.70. August soyoil rose 42 points to 54.17 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans gapped lower overnight and edged to a more than three-month low despite technically oversold conditions. Meal weakness continued to weigh on the complex to start the week, while soyoil futures firmed modestly in consolidative trade.
Mostly favorable weather conditions continue to limit buyer interest along with lingering trade uncertainties amid a lack of confirmed trade deals.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly soybean inspections totaled 147,045 MT (5.4 million bu.) for the week ended July 10, down 252,555 MT from the previous week and short of pre-report expectations ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
USDA will release its weekly crop condition ratings this afternoon, with a Bloomberg poll showing analysts expect USDA to rate the crop as 67% “good” to “excellent” as of Sunday, which would be up a point from last week.
Technical analysis: August soybean bears continue to relish amid oversold conditions, with a fresh for-the-move low carved in overnight trade. Initial support will continue to serve at the psychological $10.00 level, though bears have their sights set on the April low of $9.82 3/4. Meanwhile, bulls will need to take out the June high of $10.82 1/2, though stiff resistance stands at the 10-, 100-, 20-, 200- and 40-day moving averages, trading from $10.24 3/4 to $10.43 3/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.62 1/4, nearer the session high. December HRW wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.45 1/2, near mid-range and hit a seven-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 10 cents to $6.23 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures continued downward today following last week’s trend. A higher than expected production forecast has been unfavorable for the bulls. Notable weather issues or continued above average exports will likely be needed to spur movement.
USDA reported this morning U.S. wheat export inspections of 439,533 MT, down 82,701 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Areas in the Midwest are forecasted to have generally favorable weather for crop conditions over the next two weeks, according to World Weather Inc. More rain is likely across much of the region following the showers from this past weekend, but it is notably spotty and rainfall amounts will be variable by location. The main concern for winter wheat going forward is too much rain that may negatively impact crop maturation and the timing of winter wheat harvest. Spring wheat conditions in the Dakotas have been poorer than average so far this year, but rain is currently forecast for later this week that may help a recovery. Likewise, Montana spring wheat may receive a boost if it can catch some of the much needed rain forecast along the Canadian border this week.Analysts expect this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports to show wheat harvested at 64% complete as of Sunday, compared to 53% at the same time last week. U.S. spring wheat condition is expected at 50% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week. Rainfall in the northern Plains and Pacific Northwest will be a big factor in the spring wheat conditions.
Technical analysis: SRW saw modest gains overnight that were reversed shortly after the open today. The price faced resistance at $5.71 1/2 today, with support showing around $5.60 1/2. For the bulls facing a recent production increase, SRW appears to be performing better than the other classes. HRW also saw modest overnight gains reversed at open. Prices tightened quite a bit later in the day, with resistance and support around $5.42 and $5.43 respectively.
HRS has been trading lower since the production report on Friday. Resistance for today showed around $6.37, and support down at $6.25. Prices closed at the lowest level since May 19.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 70 points to 68.12 cents, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market continues to languish in a choppy and sideways trading range, with traders likely needing a fresh fundamental catalyst to break prices out of the range. Cotton was able to score price gains today despite bearish daily outside-market forces that included a higher U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices.
Cotton futures traders will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress data.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton “needs warmer temperatures and some additional rainfall to induce ideal cotton development.” The Texas Blacklands should see a favorable mix of weather over the next 10 days, along with the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. Argentina cotton weather will be drier-biased for much of the coming week to 10 days, favoring crop maturation and harvest progress. The same is true for Mato Grosso, Bahia and some immediate neighboring areas in Brazil. There is a chance for a few showers in Argentina, although resulting rain will not be great enough to seriously impact fiber quality or field progress, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.50 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at 67.50 cents and then at the July low of 67.13 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.