Corn
Price action: December corn fell 21 1/4 cents to $5.00 3/4, near the session low and hit a five-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market had been on shaky ground the past week but broke down hard today following a bearish USDA report. This morning’s quarterly grain stocks report showed U.S. corn stocks in all positions came in 177 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and above the highest estimate of 2.005 billion bushels. Stocks at 2.095 billion are up 544 million bu. (35.1%) from year-ago, and up 173 million bushels from the most recent WASDE estimate for ending stocks. Corn stored on-farm on September 1 totaled 787 million bu., up 144 million bu. from year-ago (22.4%). Corn stored off-farm totaled 1.307 billion bu., up 399 million bu. (43.9%). On-farm stocks make up 37.6% of total supplies; Off-farm stocks are 62.4%. Implied disappearance in the 4th quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year totaled 3.20 billion bu., up 100 million (3.2%) from the same quarter last year.
World Weather Inc. today said heavy rain will fall into Thursday from east-central and southeastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, where areas have saturated or nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding is likely to occur. Significant rain will fall elsewhere from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas to central Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Ohio. A much drier weather pattern will occur Friday into Oct. 14 and harvesting will quickly accelerate outside of areas that see heavy rain during the next couple days, where a gradual resumption of fieldwork is likely.
Traders on Thursday morning will get the weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. corn sales of 500,000 to 1.5 million MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: December corn now sees prices trending down to better suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $5.29. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.92. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.15. First support is seen at $5.00 and then at $4.95.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 4 3/4 cents to $12.93, near the daily low. December soybean meal lost $2.10 to $356.90, near the daily low. December soybean oil fell 8 points to 68.28 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw a slightly friendly USDA report today, but big losses in corn and selling pressure in wheat futures spilled over into limited buying interest in soybeans. Today’s quarterly grain stocks report showed U.S. soybean stocks in all positions came in 9 million bu. below the average pre-report trade guess. Total soybean stocks at 315.1 million are down 9 million bu. (2.8%) from year-ago. Soybeans stored on-farm totaled 90.4 million bu., down 1.1 million bu. (1.2%) from year-ago. Beans stored off-farm totaled 224 million bu., down 9 million bu. (3.8%) from year-ago. On-farm bean stocks make up 28.9% of total supplies; Off-farm stocks are 71.1%. Implied disappearance for the last quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is 744 million bu., up 61 million bushels (8.9%) from the same period last year.
USDA also reported daily soybean sales of 105,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27.
World Weather Inc. today said additional waves of rain coming to the western U.S. Corn Belt into the weekend will further delay fieldwork. Eastern Midwest crop areas will see good drying conditions for a while and then get a little rain. The Delta may trend wetter later this week and into the weekend with some of that moisture impacting a part of the lower eastern Midwest and/or the southeastern states. Meantime, early season rainfall in parts of Brazil led to some earlier than usual planting of soybeans. Recent rain has been a little erratic, but still favorable in some areas. Greater rain is expected later this week and into next week to offer some improvement.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 500,000 to 1.4 million MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: November soybeans have seen a bearish downside “breakout” from the sideways trading range at higher levels to suggest a market top is in place. Bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at the contract high of $13.35 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $13.22 1/2 and then at $13.35 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.79 1/4 and then at $12.56 1/2.
Soybean meal has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the September high of $376.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $345.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $365.20 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $353.90 and then at $350.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 69.20 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.61 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 17 cents to $6.75 3/4, near the daily low and hit a six-week low. December HRW fell 10 cents to $7.33, nearer the session low and hit a six-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 6 cents to $6.93 1/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets got mostly neutral USDA reports today but the big losses in corn spilled over into winter wheat futures markets. The quarterly grain stocks report showed U.S. wheat stocks in all positions came in 44 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total stocks at 1.845 billion bu. are down 288.3 million bu. (14%) year-ago. On-farm wheat stocks at 547 million bushels are down 145.7 million bu. (21%) from year-ago. Off-farm wheat stocks at 1.299 billion bu. Are down 212.6 million bu. (15%) from year-ago. June – August 2026 indicated disappearance is 608 million bushels, compared with 710 million bushels during the same period a year ago, down 14%.
Meantime, the USDA annual small grains summary report showed all U.S. wheat production totaled 1.53 billion bushels in 2026, down 23 percent from the revised 2025 total. Area harvested for grain totaled 31.9 million acres, down 15 percent from 2025. The average yield for the nation was 48.1 bushels per acre, down 5.2 bushels from the previous year. By type, production was estimated at 1.02 billion bushels for winter wheat (down 27%); 450 million bushels for other spring wheat (down 10%); and 64.8 million bushels for Durum wheat (down 26%).
SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026-27 grain exports to 44.7 MMT, down from 49.4 MMT, and warned that Azov and Black Sea ports will remain shut until 2027.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, improving soil moisture across hard red winter wheat areas is going to lead to aggressive planting in the next few weeks. Dry weather is likely late this weekend through much of next week and that will allow the wetter areas to dry while getting producers into their fields in many other areas. Summer crop harvesting is being delayed by rain today and Thursday, but drier conditions coming this weekend through the following seven days will get fieldwork back underway. In the Northern Plains, somewhat drier- biased weather is expected across much of the crop region, though rainfall will still occur primarily in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Rainfall may inhibit some fieldwork in eastern portions of the crop region, though increased moisture will overall be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops. More rain is needed in Montana and the western Dakotas. Seasonable frost will be possible near the U.S./Canada border; mainly near the U.S./Canada border.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 500,000 MT in all marketing years.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.03 and then at $7.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.81 1/2 and then at $6.70.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.62 3/4 and then at $7.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.33 3/4 and then at $7.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 34 points to 78.52 cents, near the daily low and hit a nine-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a tepid short-covering bounce in early trading today, following Tuesday’s limit-down price moves. However, those gains were erased by the close, on fresh chart-based selling. Selling pressure in corn and wheat futures today also limited buying interest in cotton futures. There is lingering disappointment that cotton was not a part of the recent U.S.-China trade thaw for U.S. ag product imports to China.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said after rain comes to an end today, western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will benefit from a drier weather pattern Thursday into Oct. 14 that will be important in drying out bolls that will reduce the risk of boll rot while bleaching cotton fibers white and allowing for harvesting to accelerate. Totally dry weather is not expected after today and another round of showers will occur Tuesday into next Tuesday. Additional rain will fall today from eastern parts of West Texas to southwestern Oklahoma to the eastern to the northern Panhandle where totals will be 0.15-1.15 inches and locally more. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a few light showers today before heavy rain falls Thursday into Sunday when some cotton discoloration and stringing out is possible while some local flooding may occur as well.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 84.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at 80.00 and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.