Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 5 cents to $4.21 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls once again pulled a rabbit out of their hat as prices have made a strong recovery from a six-week low scored earlier this week. Short covering and perceived bargain hunting were featured. A fading U.S. dollar index this week is also a positive for the corn market.
Analysts estimated weekly U.S. corn export sales ranged from 900,000 MT to 2.0 MMT during the week ended Oct. 9, according to a Reuters poll. However, USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report is not being released due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
World Weather Inc. today said a large part of the Midwest from the eastern Dakotas to central into eastern Iowa and Wisconsin as well as parts of Michigan will receive up to 0.30” of rain and locally more today, with pockets of dry weather scattered across the region. Rain will increase Friday through Sunday when much of the region from central Missouri to southern Wisconsin and the eastern Corn Belt receives 0.50-2.0” and locally more with some pockets of lighter rain and some bands of heavier rain. Most other areas from eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas to portions of southeastern Minnesota and the remainder of Wisconsin will receive up to 0.75” of rain and locally more with little rain elsewhere. Additional rain will fall Monday into Tuesday from Wisconsin and parts of southeastern Minnesota and eastern Iowa into the eastern Corn Belt where totals will be up to 0.50” and locally more with some areas dry.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum on their side. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $4.31 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.09 1/4. First resistance is seen at $4.24 1/2 and then at $4.28. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.16 1/4 and then at $4.12.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 4 1/4 cents to $10.10 3/4, near mid-range. December soybean meal rose $1.00 to $276.90, near the daily high. December soybean oil rose 7 points to 50.87 cents, near the daily low and hit a four-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures today saw more short covering and perceived bargain buying from the speculators after soybeans Tuesday hit a two-week low. Positive for the complex late this week is this week’s monthly NOPA report that showed September U.S. soybean crush topped market expectations was the largest September crush on record.
Analysts estimated net U.S. soybean export sales ranged from 500,000 MT to 1.4 MMT during the week ended Oct.9, according to a Reuters poll. USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report remains delayed amid the U.S. government shutdown.
China has yet to secure much of its soybean supply for December and January as high premiums for Brazilian cargoes discourage buyers, a development that could prompt Beijing to tap state reserves to meet near-term needs, according to traders.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will be good in the Delta, lower and eastern Midwest and interior southeastern for the next two days. Conditions will trend a little wetter at times farther north and during the coming weekend and early to mid-week next week, slowing fieldwork, but no harm to crop quality is anticipated.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $10.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.19 3/4 and then at $10.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.06 and then at $10.00.
December soybean meal bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $282.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at $278.00 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $273.00 and then at $270.10.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 50.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.02 1/2, nearer the session high. December HRW gained 1/2 cent to $4.88 3/4, nearer the daily high. December spring wheat futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $5.49 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and bargain hunting from the speculators today. Bulls are working to stabilize prices and made some headway today. However, they still have heavy lifting ahead of them. A weakening U.S. dollar index this week was also positive for the winter wheat markets. Good gains in the corn futures market again today were also price-friendly for the wheat markets.
Analysts estimated net U.S. wheat export sales ranged from 300,000 to 650,000 MT during the week ended Oct. 9, according to a Reuters poll. Weekly sales continue to be delayed amid the U.S. government shutdown.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country rain in the next seven days will be limited, with net drying in a majority of the region. This, in combination with more unusual warmth, is of some concern for unirrigated newly planted winter wheat. The need for greater rainfall is starting to rise more and not much rain is likely in the second week of the outlook. Some of the greatest rainfall will occur today in northwestern production areas due to a narrow band of slow-moving thunderstorm activity, mainly in northwestern Kansas and southwestern to central Nebraska. In the Northern Plains, an area of low pressure will move across the region today into early Friday with rain in most areas; though, the rain will be greatest and most impactful against fieldwork progress from eastern Montana through northwestern North Dakota. Another area of low pressure will move across the region Monday into Tuesday; though, this one is unlikely to have as much moisture to work with.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.92 1/4 and then at $4.85.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.77 1/4 and then at $4.70.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 3 points to 63.73 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures early on today saw more tepid short covering from the speculators after prices Tuesday hit a contract low. However, those slight gains could not be held into the close. Still, the solid rebound from the contract low is one clue the bears are now exhausted and that a near-term market bottom could be in place. More gains on Friday and a technically bullish weekly high close would better suggest the cotton market has put in a bottom. A weakening U.S. dollar index this week is a supportive outside market for cotton, as were grain futures prices today. However, a drop in the crude oil market to a 4.5-month low today did temper gains in cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said dry and favorable conditions for U.S. cotton maturation and harvesting will occur through much of the next two weeks, with a few infrequent and mostly light showers in each region and better-organized rain Oct. 22-25 that should cause mostly temporary interruptions to harvesting. Much of West Texas into southwestern Oklahoma will receive up to 0.75” of rain and locally more Oct. 22-25 while scattered and light showers occur in the Panhandle. Rainfall totals up to 0.75” and locally more will be common in the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas Oct. 22-25.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s high-range closes produced a bullish selling exhaustion tail in December cotton, to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.42 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.30 cents and then at the contract low of 62.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.