Corn
Price action: December corn fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.39 1/4, nearer the daily low and closed at a four-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw modest renewed technical selling pressure as prices remain trapped in a near-term downtrend. Bulls got no traction from USDA this morning reporting daily sales of 110,000 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico during 2026-27. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 905,267 MT during the week ended Nov. 5, up 6,876 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ pre-report range of estimates from 650,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
China on Monday said it had effectively extended its trade truce with the U.S. by two months to Jan. 10, formalizing an agreement reached by President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a summit meeting in Washington in September.
USDA this afternoon is expected in its weekly crop progress reports to show the U.S. corn crop at 84% harvested as of Sunday.
Tuesday near midday comes the latest USDA monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) for November. Analysts expect the average U.S. corn yield and production numbers to downtick slightly from the October report.
World Weather Inc. today said that U.S. harvest weather is improving in the western production areas where it became a little too earlier last week. Net drying is likely this week. The eastern Midwest, however, will trend a little wetter and cooler in the second half of this week into early next week slowing fieldwork. Meantime in Brazil, summer crop planting will advance well overall during the next two weeks. Rain will delay fieldwork at times, with the focus the greatest rain shifting often enough to allow farming activity to occur during the drier periods. Many areas from Mato Grosso and northern Mato Grosso do Sul to central and northern Minas Gerais, Bahia, and Espirito Santo remain in need of rain to improve conditions for summer crop development and will benefit from regular rain through the next two weeks. Argentina will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around the occasional rounds of rain expected. The soil is moist enough favorably support crop development and maintain high production potential.
Technical analysis: December corn still sees prices trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.60. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the June low of $4.25 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.43 3/4 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.38 1/2 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 5 1/2 cents to $11.88 1/4, near the daily low. December soybean meal rose $1.50 to $320.70, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil fell 23 points to 62.03 cents, near the daily low and closed at a seven-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw more chart-based selling as price downtrends on the daily bar charts remain in place for beans, meal and bean oil. A rebound in the U.S. stock indexes today did somewhat limit selling pressure in the soy complex.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.896 MMT during the week ended Nov. 5, down 615,822 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ range of estimates from 1.8 to 2.6 MMT.
Brazilian farmers had planted 64% of the 2026-27 soybean crop as of last Thursday, up from 53% a week earlier and above the 61% pace seen a year earlier, according to AgRural. Some concerns were noted around top-producing state Mato Grosso, where dryness prevails as planting approaches its final stages.
Today’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show 94% of the U.S. soybean crop harvested as of Sunday.
Tuesday near midday comes the latest USDA monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) for November. Analysts expect the average U.S. soybean yield and production numbers to uptick just slightly from the October WASDE report.
World Weather Inc. today said timely rain in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will support crops during the next two weeks. There will continue to be low subsoil moisture present in parts of northern Brazil and that situation will be monitored, but there should be timely rain in these next two weeks. U.S. harvest weather is improving in the western production areas where it became a little too earlier last week. Net drying is likely this week. The eastern Midwest, however, will trend a little wetter and cooler in the second half of this week into early next week slowing fieldwork.
Technical analysis: January soybeans see a downtrend firmly in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next near-term upside technical objective is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.02 1/2 and then at $12.23. First support is seen at last week’s low of $11.84 and then at $11.75.
Soybean meal futures are trending down on the daily bar chart and a bear flag pattern has also formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $337.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $321.90 and then at last week’s high of $326.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $315.20 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil sees prices trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 65.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 63.71 cents and then at 64.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 61.34 cents and then at 60.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.88, near mid-range and closed at a four-month-low close. December HRW closed steady at $6.32 1/2, near the daily high. December spring wheat futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $6.22 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market saw technical selling as the bleeding resumed today. HRW paused. Both SRW and HRW are trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. Weaker corn and soybean futures prices also limited buying interest in wheat futures today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 248,536 MT during the week ended Nov. 5, up 148,461 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within analysts’ range of estimates from 150,000 to 350,000 MT.
Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators are scheduled to hold talks for the first time since February this week, with security guarantees at the top of the agenda, the Associated Press reported.
APK-Inform has lowered its 2026 Ukraine grain harvest forecast to 63.7 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 65.3 MMT because of a smaller harvest. The consultancy also cut its 2026-27 grain export forecast to 29.7 MMT, down from 31.9 MMT.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 46% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, with 90% of the crop planted.
Tuesday near midday comes the latest USDA monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) for November, with the agency expected to make little change in U.S. wheat stockpiles.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, winter crops will continue establishing in a mostly favorable environment. There is need for more moisture in Colorado, far western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Late- season fieldwork will advance well during this week’s mild to warm and dry conditions. In the Northern Plains, dry conditions will be ideal for late-season fieldwork. Montana and the western Dakotas will need more precipitation to improve soil moisture and drought conditions.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.50. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.15. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.85 and then at $5.75.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $6.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.40 and then at last week’s high of $6.52. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.22 and then at $6.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 33 points to 78.78 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw tepid short covering and perceived bargain hunting early on today, but bulls faded down the stretch as some technical selling kicked in. A big rebound in the U.S. stock indexes today limited selling interest in cotton, as did a weaker U.S. dollar index to start the trading week.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports. Tuesday near midday comes the latest USDA monthly supply and demand report (WASDE) for November. Analysts expect the agency to just slightly reduce the size of this year’s U.S. cotton crop production and do the same with U.S. cotton exports.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in south Texas and that coming this week will improve planting moisture for 2027 crops, although much more will be needed during the winter to restore soil moisture and water supply to normal. U.S. Delta drought has only been partially eased with recent precipitation and there is still a big need for moisture prior to spring 2027. El Nino should bring greater moisture to at least southern parts of the region this winter. There is also some need for more moisture in the southeastern U.S., where dryness recently has supported the harvest but has the ground quite dry in some areas. West Texas also needs more moisture, although that which fell a week ago was welcome. Favorable harvest weather is likely over the coming week. Arizona and southern California will be dry through this workweek and then some rain may evolve to disrupt harvesting.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, today’s bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart is a solid chart clue that a market bottom is now in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 82.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 75.17 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 79.90 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at 78.00 cents and then at 77.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.