Advice Alert: Cotton producers: Advance old-crop, new-crop sales… Cotton futures climbed to multi-year highs despite a moderately bearish USDA acreage report and persistent robust supplies on the world market. New-crop futures are likely to face heavy resistance at the psychologically important 80-cent mark. We advise cotton producers to sell 15% of old-crop production to advance 2025-26 sales to 90%. We will hold the final 10% as gambling stocks. We advise sales of 15% of expected 2026 production as well, bringing total sales to 40%.
Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.57 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some corrective selling pressure today following Wednesday’s good gains. Selling interest was limited by more gains in winter wheat futures today.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn export sales of 1.4 MMT for the week ended April 9, up 3% from the previous week and 14% from the four-week average. Net sales of 56,500 MT were reported for 2026-27. Analysts expected net sales to range from 800,000 MT to 1.8 MMT, according to a Reuters survey.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will be excellent in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states. However, dryness will slow emergence and establishment in many areas. Planting in the Midwest will be slowed due to frequent rain and wet field conditions. Meantime, net drying is expected in much of Brazil during the next 10 days, although some rain will impact center west and far southern crop areas. This is a normal time of the year for monsoon withdrawal. There is need for more rain in Safrinha crop areas, and some is expected in the south during the second week of the forecast. Argentina rain Tuesday and Wednesday will limit fieldwork, but temporary drying is expected today into Saturday. More rain will then fall keeping fieldwork and crop maturation rates a little less than ideal. Greater drying is needed nationwide to expedite crop maturation and harvest progress.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price downtrend on the daily chart has stalled out an more price gains in the near term would suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at $4.75. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.48 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.62 1/2 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at Wednesday’s low of $4.52 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $11.80 1/2, near the daily low. July soybean meal fell $3.10 to $328.10, nearer the daily low. July soybean oil rose 174 points to 69.05 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw some chart consolidation and a mild corrective pullback from Wednesday’s gains. Shorter-term spread traders were featured booking profits on recently placed long meal, short bean oil trades.
USDA this morning reported disappointing weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 247,900 MT for the week ended April 9, a marketing year low. Net sales were down 16% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. Net sales were within analysts’ range of expectations from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said additional rain fell on most of the wetter areas in the Midwest Wednesday, while much of the Ohio River Basin was dry and likely saw some planting progress with most northern and western parts of the western Corn Belt also dry. Wet weather into Saturday from eastern Kansas to northern Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will keep fieldwork to a minimum and will cause some local flooding while precipitation is light enough in most other areas that some fieldwork likely occurs. A drier weather pattern will occur Sunday into April 30 and planting should steadily increase around one round of precipitation in much of the Midwest Apr. 23-25.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.99 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.70 1/4 and then at last week’s low of $11.56 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the November 2025 high of $343.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $335.60 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $325.90 and then at this week’s low of $323.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained strength late this week. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.12 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.32 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.12 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at today’s low of 67.10 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.06 1/2, near mid-range. July HRW gained 16 1/2 cents to $6.55, nearer the session high and hit a 13-month high. July spring wheat futures rose 12 3/4 cents to $6.67, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical buying interest and short covering today amid a weather market that has developed, especially in HRW futures.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, net drying is expected in most areas through the next seven days, which will keep concerns of winter wheat stress elevated, especially in unirrigated fields. There will be a severe thunderstorm outbreak in far eastern production areas Friday with some rain from this, but a majority of the region will not receive meaningful moisture. This is expected to change to some degree though in the second week of the outlook due to a couple of weather disturbances. Greater rain is most likely in eastern and northern production areas in the second week but may occur in the southwest too depending on the track of the low-pressure areas. Morning low temperatures in the 20s and possibly a few upper teens will occur in western and northern production areas Saturday and Sunday. This will burn-back some of the winter wheat but is unlikely to cause permanent damage.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales of 100,300 MT for the week ended April 9, down 39% from the previous week and 48% from the four-week average. New-crop sales totaled 131,000 MT. Net sales were within analysts’ range of expectations from 75,000 to 250,000 MT.
Technical analysis: SRW wheat bulls and bear are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $6.36. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $5.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.15 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.98 and then at $5.90.
HRW bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. Their next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $5.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.63 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at $6.40 and then at today’s low of $6.34 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 71 points to 78.13 cents, nearer the daily high and hit another nearly two-year high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more technical buying featured today. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace recently, as well as a weaker U.S. dollar index recently, have supported buying interest in cotton futures.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. net sales of 161,100 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--down 50 percent from the previous week and down 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (62,100 RB), Turkey (49,000 RB) and Pakistan (32,900 RB). Net sales of 26,900 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Vietnam (20,700 RB) and Portugal (6,200 RB). Exports of 305,000 RB were down 11 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (110,400 RB), Pakistan (35,900 RB) and Turkey (31,900 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the soil from drying out again, leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. The Blacklands will see regular rounds of showers through the next ten days and although most of the rain should not be heavy, soil moisture in place and the occasional rain should support cotton germination, establishment, and development while causing interruptions to fieldwork. The Coastal Bend and South Texas will see less showers during the next two weeks and although some temporary improvements in soil moisture should occur, the rain should not be great enough to prevent net declines in both soil moisture and conditions for cotton.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a decent corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 73.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.