Corn
Price action: July corn futures closed 3 1/4 cents lower to $4.69, falling 16 1/2 cents on the week in the third consecutive weekly decline.
5-day outlook: Corn futures had a mixed tone to end the week, with old-crop ending the day lower and new-crop posting gains, a sharp break from the recent trend. After trading the nearly 35 cents early this week, the July-Dec spread pulled back to 19 cents at today’s low, the tightest the spread has been in nearly a month. This shift in trade begs the question what changed over the past couple of weeks. It is likely a combination of factors, including concerns that trade deals are progressing at a slower-than-expected pace, eventually hindering old-crop exports and resurgent rainfall that is likely to cause planting delays in the Tennessee River basin, both of which will be discussed below. In the meantime, the technical outlook for corn remains bearish, but prices making fresh lows today put July futures in the bottom end of the recent range. That is likely to be supportive for futures next week as bargain hunters lift prices. Since July futures turned lower in mid-April, they have traded in a relatively tight, down trending range. A breakdown would occur if prices closed below $4.65, while a close above resistance at $4.80 would indicate a bullish reversal.
30-day outlook: Planters continue to roll at a healthy clip across the Midwest. This week likely made solid progress once again, but there still remains a lot of corn to be planted. Significant rain is expected to roll into the U.S. Delta and Tennessee river basin over the next ten days that could raise concerns about crop conditions and keep planters out of the fields, says World Weather Inc. The area had already been saturated and while some progress has been made over the past week and a half, producers have not had the free reign to plant as some in the western half of the Corn Belt have. After upcoming rains, a warm and dry period is expected across the Midwest towards the middle and end of May. Then the focus will begin to turn on crop conditions as USDA begins to release their weekly reports.
90-day outlook: Trade talks garnered a lot of headlines and attention this week with one deal allegedly being close to putting pen to paper, with heavy speculation as to who the deal could be with. Initial reports sounded like it could be India, though the E.U. is another top contender. Regardless, progress on trade deals has been slow and the barriers are either in place or going to be in place mid-summer as the 90-day pause lapses. Many countries appear to be open to increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural products and there were promising signs of export demand this week. As deals are made, or not made, it will give greater insight into how prices will hold up over the coming quarter. The old-crop balance sheet is already nearing tight levels and if deals are made early and demand shows up right away, it would be rather supportive, especially considering how the world balance sheet continues to shrink.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 7 3/4 cents to $10.58 but lost 1 1/4 cents on the week. July soymeal closed $2.60 higher at $296.90, but marked a $1.60 weekly loss. July soyoil fell 27 points to 49.43 cents but lost 28 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans recovered some more early-week losses as bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Moreover, a downturn in the U.S. dollar complemented gains, while stronger-than-expected crush, reported following Thursday’s close, lent additional support. Of concern, however, is the level of soyoil use for biofuels has plummeted to levels not seen since 2021, as uncertainty around the 45Z tax credit has discouraged soyoil use. This is ultimately garnering attention in Washington.
Meanwhile, some optimism is likely stemming from a statement from China’s commerce ministry that Beijing is “evaluating” an offer from Washington to hold talks over President Trump’s tariffs. The ministry said the U.S. has approached China to seek talks over tariffs and Beijing’s door was open for discussions. Traders will continue to look for concrete details on recent trade deals that are reported to be advancing
30-day outlook: As the U.S. planting season progresses, traders will continue to monitor weather. World Weather Inc. reports greater rain is expected to return to the Delta and Tennessee River Basin in the next ten days, raising new concern over crop conditions and additional planting delays. Meanwhile, corn planting delays in Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky could mean less corn plantings, with many producers likely choosing the prevent-plant route, though there is potential for increased soybean acres. These unknowns will leave a fair amount of ambiguity around planted acreage.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. soybeans will continue to serve as the longer-term trade focus as the marketing-year advances. The Trump administration is facing increased pressure to release confirmation of supposed trade deals but also regarding a biofuels mandate as many biofuels producers slow production amid vast unknowns.
It was reported that the U.S. handed Japan a draft framework for a potential trade agreement, according to Nikkei, though despite exchanges, the talks—led by top officials including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Japan’s Ryosei Akazawa—yielded no breakthrough after two hours of discussions. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also intensifying efforts to boost U.S. ag exports to Asia, pressing other countries including South Korea, India and Thailand to lower tariffs and exports of American rice, soybeans, corn, pork and beef.
Regarding the 45Z tax credit, an extension is being considered as part of the broader congressional budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited passage of budget-related legislation. Supporters are pushing for inclusion of the extension in upcoming reconciliation bills to ensure timely passage and avoid further uncertainty for the clean fuels sector.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures rose 12 cents to $5.43, nearer the session high and on the week down 2 cents. July HRW wheat rose 13 3/4 cents to $5.41 1/4, nearer the daily high and for the week down 9 3/4 cents. July spring wheat futures settled 15 1/2 cents higher at , marking a 4 3/4 cent rise on the week.
5-day forecast: The winter wheat futures markets finished the week with a short-covering bounce that did produce technically bullish weekly high closes in the July contracts. Bulls are hoping that friendly technical development will prompt follow-through buying interest early next week. However, weather in U.S. wheat country still leans bearish following recent beneficial moisture in most regions. USDA this week estimated D1-D4 drought conditions covered 23% of the U.S. winter wheat crop. That’s down 10 points as of April 29. Rainfall is expected to continue to develop over the next couple of weeks in U.S. winter wheat country. Ideal planting conditions in U.S. spring wheat regions have allowed spring wheat sowings to advance well ahead of normal. Wheat traders will closely scrutinize Monday afternoon’s weekly crop condition reports that include updates on wheat crop conditions.
30-day outlook: Risk appetite in the general marketplace improved markedly late this week, to help rally the wheat markets. Risk aversion will have to remain lower in the coming weeks to further encourage buyers to step into the wheat markets. The major stock indexes will be a good gauge for wheat traders, regarding the level of risk appetite seen in the general marketplace on a daily basis. One worry for the entire grain futures complex this week is the steep downdraft in the crude oil market. Wheat traders will be eyeing the crude market extra closely in the coming weeks. If crude oil prices continue to falter, any rally potential in the grain markets would be significantly reduced.
90-day outlook: On Thursday USDA reported more disappointing U.S. wheat export sales of 72,000 MT for 2024-25 during the week ended April 24. That was up from net cancellations the previous week but down 24% from the four-week average. U.S. wheat sales abroad need to improve in the coming months for wheat markets to have solid upside price potential. The U.S. dollar index recently hit a three-year low, which does make U.S. wheat priced on world trade markets less expensive to purchase in non-U.S. currency.What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton surged 275 points to 68.41 cents, but still marked a 39-point loss on the week.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures made a solid comeback to end the week, recapturing a large portion of a recent string of losses, bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar and firming equities. A better-than-expected jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics spurred optimism across the marketplace. The report’s non-farm payrolls number was above the consensus forecast despite uncertainty regarding tariffs that weighed on the markets during April. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% and was in line with market expectations. Labor force participation did improve in April, however, matching the highest rate in the last six months. Look for extended strength into next week amid today’s reversal higher and high-range close.
30-day outlook: USDA reported cotton plantings advanced to 15% complete as of April 27, up 4 points on the week. Texas continues to pace ahead of average, while Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana continue to lag behind last year and the five-year average. World Weather indicates greater rain will return to the Delta and Tennessee River basin in the next ten days, raising new concerns over crop conditions and planting delays. However, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina will continue to see less-than-usual rain through midweek next week, while South Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend will not likely see much precip in the coming five days. Though greater rain may occur late next week into the following weekend. Meanwhile, West Texas will trend wetter with at least three waves of rain in the coming week to ten days, bolstering soil moisture for spring plantings.
90-day outlook: Upland cotton exports continue to prove rather uninspiring despite recent notions of increased purchases from countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia. USDA reported net cotton sales totaled 104,00 RB during the week ended April 24, down 49% from the previous week and 22% for the four-week average. Meanwhile net upland sales for 2025-26 totaled a meager 38,000 RB. Traders will likely require confirmation of trade deals in order to catalyze more sustained buying over the longer-term.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.