Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.09 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw routine profit-taking pressure today after prices pushed to a nearly four-week high Monday.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 71% “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from last week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI: 0-500-point scale with 500 representing perfect), the crop declined 0.8 point to 381.58. Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield unchanged at 184 bu. per acre and noted a neutral bias going forward.
Technical analysis: A four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices are starting to trend up. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.25. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.14 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $4.16 1/2. First support is seen at $4.08 and then at $4.05.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 1 3/4 cents to $10.49 1/2, near mid-range. September soybean meal rose $1.50 to $297.20, near mid-range. September soybean oil fell 155 points to 52.76 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market paused and traded both sides of unchanged today as prices consolidated after hitting a two-month high last Friday.
Soy complex futures bulls were encouraged today to hear that China is sending Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang to the U.S. to meet with U.S. officials and business people, a move that signals talks are progressing after President Trump extended a tariff truce, Bloomberg reports. The trip is not part of a formal negotiating session, and Li is expected to meet with deputies of U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Department officials.
USDA Monday afternoon reported the U.S. soybean crop at 69% “good” to “excellent,” down one point from last week, while the “poor” to “very poor” rating was unchanged at 8%. On our CCI, the crop declined 1.55 points to 373.65. Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. soybean yield unchanged at 53 bu. per acre, with a neutral bias going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said the lower and eastern Midwest will continue struggling for greater rain. Temperatures in the Midwest and parts of the Plains will be cooler than usual for the next 10 days, reducing some of the concern for net drying.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the June high of $10.74 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $10.62 3/4 and then at $10.74 1/4. First support is seen at $10.40 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $285.00. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at this week’s high of $305.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $293.00 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 51.14 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.00 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 52.38 cents and then at 52.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 2 cents to $5.31 3/4, near mid-range. December HRW wheat fell 3 cents to $5.17 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low. December spring wheat futures fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.89 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market saw tepid short covering today, while HRW continues to struggle and set contract lows.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 49% “good” to “excellent” condition, down a point from the previous week. On our CCI, the crop declined 2.4 points to 346.06.
Russia’s IKAR consultancy raised its 2025 wheat crop forecast to 86.0 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 85.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. hard red winter wheat areas are getting significant rain this week and more coming over the next full week. Meantime, the Canada Prairies are seeing drying that is good for wheat maturation and harvesting progress.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.35 1/2 and then at the August high of $5.42 3/4. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at the contract low of $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.31 1/4 and then at the August high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.16 3/4 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 61 points to 66.71 cents, near the daily low and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: Technical selling pushed the cotton futures market lower today as the chart-based speculative bears are gaining more confidence. Cotton bulls got no traction today from reports U.S. and Chinese trade officials will meet, which is a move that signals talks may be progressing after President Trump extended a tariff truce. The trip is not part of a formal negotiating session, however.
World Weather Inc. says dryland cotton in southwestern parts of west Texas needs rain. Some showers are possible late this week into the weekend. Other areas in west Texas will get rain with some significant amounts in the north. Temperatures will be cooler than usual during the next seven days, which will conserve soil moisture and slow crop growth rates. U.S. Delta crops “have dried out greatly, resulting in some crop stress.” Rain is possible later this week and into the weekend.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at last week’s high of 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 65.88 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at today’s high of 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.61 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.