Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 1 3/4 cents to $4.19 3/4 and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more short covering today after hitting a contract low Monday. Bulls are hoping all the bearish fundamental news—namely very good growing conditions in much of the Corn Belt—are factored into futures prices, or at least close to it. Bulls were impressed today that corn prices rallied despite a solid rally in the U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices.
Reported by Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week: Weather conditions through the first half of July have been “nearly ideal” and the corn crop is “on its way to a record yield.” Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield 2 bu., to 182 bu. per acre, increasing his U.S. corn production forecast to 15.79 billion bushels. Cordonnier also raised his Brazilian corn production forecast 2 MMT, to 134 MMT.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor” as of July 13. On our Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.4 points to 383.4 and 10 points above last year at this time.
World Weather Inc. today said much of the Midwest was dry Monday, with rain noted in parts of western and northern Kentucky, southwestern Indiana, and central and south-central to east-central and southeastern Ohio. “Much of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials, with an area of developing dryness and possibly some crop stress late this month in parts of the southwestern Corn Belt.”
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish key reversal up in December corn futures this week is one chart clue that a market bottom is in place. Still, prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.35. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.24 and then at $4.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.13 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: August soybeans fell 6 cents to $9.95, the lowest close since April 7, while August meal fell $2.40 to $265.30. August soyoil rose 39 points to 54.56 cents.
Fundamental analysis: August futures held an inside range, with Monday’s low serving as initial support amid technically oversold conditions, though selling in meal continued to hover over the complex. Meanwhile, strong gains in the U.S. dollar hovered over commodities, as Consumer Price Index data showed inflation continues to linger.
USDA also reported the soybean crop improved in the past week, and now sits at 70% “good” to “excellent,” and 5% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. On our CCI, the crop improved 3.5 points to 367.2 and is now 3.0 points above year-ago.
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released June crush of 185.709 million bushels in late-morning trade, which topped average trade expectations and reached the highest ever level for the sixth month of the year, while soyoil stocks dropped to a five-month low of 1.366 billion pounds. The crush was down 3.7% from last month but up 5.8% from year-ago, which was the previous record for the month, while soyoil stocks were down 15.8% from June 2024. .
Technical analysis: August soybeans forged a fresh for-the-move low and the lowest close since April 7 despite persisting oversold conditions. Bears are poised to breach the Dec. 19 low of $9.64, though initial support lies at $9.93 3/4, $9.86 1/2 and $9.78 1/2. Meanwhile, bulls aim to take out the June 20 high of $10.82 1/2, though initial resistance stands at $10.00, then $10.09 and $10.17, which are backed by the 10-, 20-, 100-, 200- and 40-day moving averages.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.58 3/4, near mid-range. The December HRW wheat gained 1/2 a cent to $5.46, also near mid-range. December spring wheat rose a penny to $6.24 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat futures saw purchasing at the open which was quickly followed by softening demand throughout the day, with SRW contracts falling a few cents for the day. HRW and spring wheat contracts were mostly sideways trading today with small gains at the close.
Monday afternoon USDA rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 54% “good” to “excellent” as of July 13, and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop increased 6.1 points to 351.6. This is a notable improvement, but the crop is still rated 26.3 points below where it was this time last year according to our CCI. U.S. spring wheat is at 78% headed and winter wheat harvest advanced 10 points to 63% as of July 13, still just one point behind the five-year average despite recent rains in the Midwest.
The southwestern prairies received favorable rain yesterday, but not enough to completely eliminate concerns for crop condition. There are continued chances of rain for the area moving into this weekend according to World Weather Inc. They also noted favorable conditions in most of Argentina’s dominant wheat growing regions. On the other hand, Russia is facing potential issues with their wheat crop, as the IKAR consulting firm has lowered their total production forecast by 500,000 MT due to some areas dealing with drought.
Technical analysis: The bears continue to own the technical advantage in winter wheat. Factors to promote a rally in prices remain unfavorable. The bears’ downside goal is to close SRW prices at or below the contract low of $5.43 3/4 and $5.38 1/2 for HRW. Daily resistance is around $5.64 1/2 for SRW with support at $5.56 1/4. For HRW resistance is around $5.51 1/2, with support at $5.41. December Spring wheat tacked on a gain today coming off of back-to-back daily losses.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 47 points to 68.59 cents, near mid-range and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton bulls are out of the gate in good fashion early this week. Gains today came despite bearish outside markets that included a solid rally in the U.S. dollar index, weaker crude oil prices and some mildly heightened risk aversion in the general marketplace this week due to more hawkish U.S. rhetoric on trade tariffs.
USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. cotton in 54% good to excellent conditions as of last Sunday, compared to 52% at the same time last week. The crop was 61% squaring compared to 62% for the five-year average, and 23% setting bolls compared to 22% for the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said west Texas cotton “needs warmer temperatures and some additional rainfall to induce ideal cotton development. The Texas Blacklands will also experience a limited rainfall pattern and warmer temperatures, while a favorable mix of weather impacts the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. Warmer temperatures advertised for this weekend and next week will be good for cotton.”
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 69.00 cents and then at 69.52 cents. First support is seen at 68.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 67.36 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.