Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $4.23 1/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls sputtered today and gave back most of Friday’s solid gains that saw prices hit a seven-week high. Bulls will have to step up Tuesday, as follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday would begin to suggest Friday’s solid rally was just a “one-day wonder.”
Corn bulls got no traction today after USDA reported a daily U.S. corn sale of 148,971 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year. USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.51 MMT for the week ended Sept. 11, up 68,512 MT from the previous week and above analysts’ pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest saw much-warmer-than-normal temperatures, dry weather and rapid crop maturation rates during the weekend, while harvesting advanced well in many areas where crops are ready to be harvested. Today’s forecast is wetter for Wednesday into the following Wednesday when much of the Midwest receives multiple rounds of rain.
This afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. corn crop condition at 67% good to excellent as of Sunday, compared to 68% in the same condition last week and 65 % one year ago. Corn harvested is at 9% complete.
Technical analysis: December corn futures prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.14. First resistance is seen at $4.25 and today’s high of $4.28 1/2. First support is seen at $4.20 and then at $4.17.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans lost 3 1/2 cents to $10.42 3/4, nearer the daily low. December soybean meal fell $2.90 to $285.70, nearer the daily low. December soybean oil rose 9 points to 52.26 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market quickly erased overnight losses on reports the U.S. and China are making good progress on high-level trade talks in Madrid, Spain. President Trump said on social media that the talks are going very well and that he may talk with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week. Bean bulls are hoping a new trade deal would mean more U.S. soybeans sold to China. Soybean prices faded again as the session progressed, as corn futures prices remained under pressure all session.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 804,352 MT, up 336,728 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 200,000 to 730,000 MT.
Today’s National Soybean Processors Association (NOPA) report showed the U.S. soybean crush pace declined in August to the slowest in nearly a year, as processors idled some facilities for maintenance ahead of the fall harvest. NOPA members crushed 189.810 million bushels last month, above expectations and a record volume for August. The crush was down 3.0% from 195.699 million bushels in July but up 20.1% from the August 2024 crush of 158.008 million bushels.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest saw much-warmer-than-normal temperatures, dry weather, and rapid crop maturation rates during the weekend, while harvesting advanced well in many areas where crops are ready to be harvested. An area of largely welcome rain occurred from eastern Kansas to the eastern Dakotas to central Minnesota to central to eastern and south-central Wisconsin to western Michigan and northern into south-central and eastern Indiana and Kentucky. Today’s forecast is wetter for Wednesday into the following Wednesday when much of the Midwest receives multiple rounds of rain. The rain will come too late to significantly increase summer crop yields, said the forecaster.
This afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop condition at 63% good to excellent as of Sunday, compared to 64% in the same condition last week and 64 % one year ago. Soybeans harvested is seen at 5% complete.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the August high of $10.62 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.21 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.51 1/4 and then at $10.62 3/4. First support is at seen $10.35 and then at $10.30.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are also on neutral ground. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $272.60. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $289.80 and then at $295.00. First support is seen at $284.30 and then at $281.40.
Bean oil bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.97 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 51.87 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1 1/2 cents to $5.25, near mid-range. December HRW lost 3/4 cent to $5.14, nearer the session low. December spring wheat futures were unchanged at $5.71 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW futures market saw tepid short covering today. The winter wheat markets are languishing not far above their contract lows. Bulls need to put together a multi-session winning streak to suggest market bottoms are in place. The bulls have not been able to accomplish that since June.
USDA today reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 755,073 MT, up 325,957 MT from the previous week and above the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 600,000 MT.
Up to 60% of Ukrainian land intended for sowing winter grain crops is dry and sowing in these areas is currently impractical, according to consultancy APK-Inform on Monday, citing state meteorologists.
World Weather Inc. said that in U.S. HRW country favorable weather is expected the next two weeks for the region as multiple slow-moving weather disturbances move by. Rain will be frequent enough and great enough to provide a beneficial rise of soil moisture for winter wheat planting. The rain could cause some fieldwork delays and localized flooding. However, generally warm temperatures will help provide some drying between the areas of rain and help with summer crop maturation. In the Northern Plains, some beneficial rainfall is expected in the Dakotas in the next seven days. Some fieldwork delays will also result from this. Temperatures will be unusually warm and will promote drying between areas of rain which will help limit any fieldwork delays. A favorable mix of rain and sunshine is likely in the second week of the outlook.
The weekly USDA crop progress report is expected to show U.S. spring wheat harvested at 92% complete versus 85% last week and 92% one year ago at the same time. U.S. winter wheat planted is seen at 12% complete versus 5% last week and 14% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.42 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.29 1/4 and then at $5.35 1/2. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at the contract low of $5.12.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.20 1/4 and then at $5.31 1/4. First support is seen at $5.10 and then at the contract low of $5.01 3/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 1 point to 66.84 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: More tepid short covering was featured in the cotton market today. Cotton bulls have gotten little traction from a mildly friendly USDA supply and demand report released Friday at midday.
World Weather Inc. said west Texas precipitation during the weekend was greater than expected and the moisture “will be good for future crop development. Dry and warm weather is needed most to expedite late- season cotton development. Cotton in the Blacklands was largely dry during the weekend and dry conditions will prevail this week favoring crop maturation and some harvesting. Harvesting in other areas of Texas to the south will advance well around any spotty showers that evolve.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 68.30 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 64.24 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 67.10 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.46 cents and then at 65.80 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.