Corn
Price action: December corn rallied 6 1/2 cents to $4.80 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls needed to step up and show fresh strength after Monday’s beatdown—and they did just that to keep the price uptrend alive and keep the bulls confident. Futures prices were supported today as USDA reported daily U.S. corn sales of 197,272 MT to unknown destinations during 2026-27.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the crop as 63% good to excellent as of Sunday, down four percentage points from last week. That was the largest weekly decline this year and below analyst’s expectations. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) the crop declined 8.25 points to 364.39, which is 21.46 points below last year at this time.
World Weather Inc. today said relief from heat and dryness is expected in the northwestern U.S. Corn Belt late this week, leading to some crop improvement. Cooling in the Midwest next week will be of interest in the heart of the Midwest.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained footing today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.85 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at $4.75 and then at this week’s low of $4.71 1/4.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 6 1/4 cents to $12.20, nearer the daily high. September soybean meal gained $1.00 to $321.30, nearer the daily high. September soybean oil fell 71 points to 70.14 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures market saw some short covering and perceived bargain buying today, after Monday’s solid selling pressure. Soybean meal saw more tepid short covering and bean oil continues to feel the pinch of a big sell off in the crude oil futures market.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 63% good to excellent as of Sunday, down three percentage points from the previous week. On our CCI, the crop rating fell 5.23 points and is well behind last year’s rating of 377.00 for the same week.
China’s Sinograin said it will auction about half a million metric tons of imported soybeans on Friday, its first sale of that size since January, as the market expects the state stockpiler to free up space for incoming U.S. soybeans, according to Reuters.
Brazil is seen exporting a record 115.4 MMT of soybeans in 2026, according to crushers group Abiove. The estimate was up 1.1% from a June projection, while the crush estimate also rose to 63.3 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 63.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said two more weeks of mostly favorable conditions for crops will occur across much of the Midwest leaving yield potential high with a close watch warranted on a timely rain event occurring Thursday into Saturday in the driest areas from eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota into western Iowa. Cooler temperatures starting today and significant rain Thursday into Saturday from east-central Nebraska through eastern South Dakota to Wisconsin and central and northern Illinois will induce notable improvements in crop and soil conditions in the drier areas while bolstering soil moisture elsewhere. Much of the remainder of the Midwest will receive at least some rain that will be timely and will buy crops more time before stress would increase due to a lack of soil moisture. A drier weather pattern will occur Monday into Aug. 11 and the showers that occur most days will slow drying rates, but much of the Midwest will dry down overall. There will be a growing need for rain towards the middle of the month with much of the region still likely to have adequate soil moisture to support crops deep into the second week of August with some exceptions.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $12.30 and then at $12.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.06 1/4 and then at $12.00.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $318.20 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil has seen a price uptrend on the daily bar chart negated this week. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 72.87 cents and then at 73.30 cents. First support is seen at 69.00 cents and then at 68.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 2 1/2 cents to $6.62 1/2, nearer the daily high. September HRW fell 2 3/4 cents to $7.26 1/4, nearer the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 3 3/4 cents to $7.02 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw mixed trade that included mild follow-through technical selling in HRW and some mild short covering in SRW today, following Monday’s losses. Selling pressure today was limited by the rebound in corn and soybean futures prices.
USDA rated the U.S. spring wheat crop as 53% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. However, our CCI showed a 7.01 decline on the week to 344.38, which is 6.2 points behind last year’s rating during the same week.
SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026-27 wheat exports by 1.9 MMT to 44.6 MMT as navigation in the Sea of Azov remained closed. SovEcon said it did not expect navigation in the Sea of Azov to normalize in the coming weeks, “although some recovery later in the season remains possible.”
World weather today said good harvest weather is occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. The favorable harvest should continue through the next week to 10 days, despite a few showers and thunderstorms and brief delays. Spring wheat in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies is stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain and very warm to hot temperatures. Not much rain is likely through the next 10 days and production potential will continue to decrease for some of the driest areas, although some short-term cooling will be possible this weekend and next week. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop maturation and harvesting. Dryness this season did reduce yields.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market still bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Bulls need to step up and show power soon, to keep their advantage. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts are in serious jeopardy. Also, bearish broadening patterns have formed on the daily bar charts for September SRW and HRW futures. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.11 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.30. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at this week’s high of $6.82. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.50 1/2 and then at $6.40.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.40 and then at this week’s high of $7.52 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.17 1/2 and then at $7.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 35 points to 80.53 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw some mild selling interest, but bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace so far this week has limited the downside in cotton, although the big sell off in crude oil prices this week has squelched cotton bulls.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop in 18% poor to very poor condition, 38% fair and 46% good to excellent condition as of Sunday. The crop was 81% squaring and 45% setting pods.
World Weather Inc. today said hot temperatures and limited rainfall in west Texas will stress crops and raise the potential for lower production, despite recent rain. Crop stress will be greatest in the drier areas of the central and north initially. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition, with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Rain has fallen recently in the Carolinas easing long term dryness. The middle and lower Delta will experience net drying for at least the next week and possibly ten days. The Texas Blackland are trending drier and this trend will continue with rising crop stress over time.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 82.05 cents and then at the July high of 82.96 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 79.51 cents and then at 79.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.