Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 1/2 cent to $4.17 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls this week are bending but not yet breaking, following last week’s impressive price gains. Bulls do need to step up and show fresh power yet this week, to keep the speculative bears at bay.
Weather in the U.S. Midwest still leans overall price-bearish. World Weather Inc. today said Midwest U.S. weather is expected to be very warm to hot over the next full week and possibly 10 days, stressing livestock and limiting human activity. Daily highs in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit will impact the central and southern Plains. U.S. Midwest soil moisture and crop conditions “will remain very good over the next 10 days, despite net drying that is likely to occur over several days starting this weekend and lasting into much of next week,” said the forecaster.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.078 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended July 18, down 9,000 bpd from the previous week. Ethanol stocks rose 809,000 barrels to 24.444 million barrels, up 3.4% from the previous week.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 100,000 to 800,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 400,000 to 800,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.30 1/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.07 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $4.24 3/4 and then at $4.30 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.15 3/4 and then at $4.10.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $10.22 3/4 and near the daily low. September soybean meal lost $1.70 to $276.20, near the daily low and hit a three-week high early on. September soybean oil rose 49 points to 55.94 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw some mild short covering early on, but then succumbed to some technical selling pressure late. Bulls were somewhat encouraged by the U.S.-Japan trade deal reached. President Trump called the trade deal the “largest ever.” Taiwan’s trade negotiators have arrived in the U.S. for trade talks.
World Weather Inc. today said central U.S. weather is expected to be very warm to hot over the next full week and possibly 10 days. Daily highs in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit will impact the central and southern Plains while the Delta and Tennessee River Basin see daily highs in the 90s and near 100. U.S. Midwest cooling is expected during the middle to latter part of next week, which will be welcome, although it will not last long with the return of warmer weather in the following weekend.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 100,000 to 350,000 MT in the 2024-25 marketing year, and sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $9.98 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.35 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $10.43 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $10.20 1/4 and then at $10.10.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $285.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $268.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $281.70 and then at $285.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $273.50 and then at $270.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at 58.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 52.50 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 56.99 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 54.79 cents and then at 54.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat fell 8 1/4 cents to $5.61 1/4, near the daily low. December HRW wheat lost 9 cents to $5.46, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $6.09 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure today and likely continued commercial hedge selling from commercials amid the ongoing winter wheat harvest. This week’s sell off in the corn futures market is also limiting buying interest in wheat.
World Weather Inc. today said central U.S. weather is expected to be very warm to hot over the next full week and possibly 10 days. Daily highs in the 90s to 106 degrees Fahrenheit will impact the central and southern Plains. Late-season wheat harvest conditions in the central and southern U.S. Plains will be good due to restricted rainfall and hot temperatures, said the forecaster.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are stiff chart support levels that lie just below present prices. December SRW prices today scored a bullish outside day up on the daily bar chart. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.43 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.72 3/4 and then at the July high of $5.88 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.57 1/2 and then at the July low of $5.52 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.58 3/4 and then at $5.61 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.43 1/4 and then at the contract low of $5.38.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 1 point to 68.24 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market remains range-bound, with neither the bulls nor the bears gaining much of an edge. That suggests more of the same for at least the near term. This week’s sell off in the U.S. dollar index has been slightly supportive for buying interest in cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said a trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States will sag into the northern Gulf during the latter part of this week and weekend, where some development is possible. A tropical disturbance may form, bringing heavy rain to the central Gulf coastal region during the latter part of this week and into the weekend. This feature may also help to restrict rain in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin, where temperatures will be warm to hot inducing quick drying
Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid sideways and choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 68.88 cents and then at last week’s high of 69.15 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 67.80 cents and then at the July low of 67.13 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.