Corn
Price action: July corn rose 1 cent to $4.12 3/4, near mid-range and hit another contract low early on. For the week, July corn was down 4 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn market bears are peering over the horizon, weather-wise, and seeing extended forecasts for the Corn Belt that are reaching out into early July—with no significant weather perils seen for the U.S. corn crop. In just one month’s time the grain markets have pivoted from firmly bullish to firmly bearish. However, such is also a reminder that grain market prices could again pivot just as quickly, from bearish to bullish, as the most critical growing month of the season for U.S. corn is July, at which time Corn Belt weather generally turns hotter and drier.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
30-day outlook: Weather in the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish. “Very high summer crop yield potentials will remain in place through the next two weeks,” said World Weather Inc. Regular rain in the much of the Midwest will leave soil moisture favorable in nearly all areas while a lack of significant heat is expected through at least the next week and most areas will be colder than usual this weekend into early next week. Fieldwork will be slowed at times, but there will be breaks between rounds of rain and summer crop planting should soon be completed. As long as rain falls as advertised June 19-22 most areas will be left with adequate soil moisture to support summer crop development through the end of the month and likely longer.
The late-June USDA planted acreage updates are starting to draw trader attention and speculation on what the agency will report. There are growing notions U.S. planted corn acres won’t be reduced much.
90-day outlook: Domestic and export demand for corn is still robust, with U.S. export sales this week an increase from last week to 1.04 MMT of net sales, while ethanol production remained flat from week-ago levels at 1.088 million barrels per day. Reuters reports shipping company Maersk along with others are eyeing ethanol as a source of fuel for commercial maritime vessels in the near future, citing lower costs and the ability to help the companies meet emission standards. These elements should at least keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming weeks and months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 1 1/2 cents to $11.13 1/2, near mid-range and for the week down 8 cents. July soybean meal lost $0.40 to $301.30, near the daily low and for the week down $7.20. July bean oil lost 17 points to 74.28 cents, nearer the daily high after hitting a six-week low early on. For the week, July bean oil was up 16 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal markets remain trapped in downtrends on the daily bar charts, including a bearish pennant pattern that has formed in July meal. Bean oil is holding its own at higher levels, even though the near-term price uptrend has been negated. Weather in the Midwest still leans firmly price-bearish for the soy complex markets.
The U.S. soybean crush pace likely slowed for a third straight month in May as some processing plants were idled for seasonal maintenance and repairs despite historically large crush margins, according to analysts surveyed ahead of the monthly NOPA crush report due out Monday. Monday’s weekly USDA export inspections and crop progress data will be also closely scrutinized by soybean complex traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said most of the U.S. Midwest, Delta and southeastern states are going to see frequent showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with southern crop areas still getting rain next week. A drier bias is likely in the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Cooling this weekend and next week in the Midwest and Plains may slow crop development and drying rates for a little while. No threatening weather is so far seen for the U.S. soybean crop in the extended forecasts. However, weather patterns in the Midwest in the summertime can “change on a dime.”
The late-June USDA planted acreage updates will be a major focal point of the month for soy complex traders.
90-day outlook: The continued drawdown of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve is a longer-term bullish element for soyoil as the conflict with Iran continues to flare up amid on-and-off peace-deal reports. The soy complex traders will continue to monitor outside markets, with the U.S. dollar index presently showing firmness and crude oil prices selling off and hitting seven-week lows overnight. August is generally seen as the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. Weather-market scares can still come into play in late summer.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.84 1/2, near mid-range and for the week up 4 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat lost 1/4 cent to $6.34 1/2, near mid-range and for the week up 13 3/4 cents. September spring wheat futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $6.42, at the daily low and for the week down 4 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets this past week saw price stability, which is a win for the bullish camp. However, the corn and soybean futures markets are still looking heavy. It’s likely the wheat markets will look to the daily price action in corn and soybeans in the near term, as U.S. growing weather is on the fundamental front burner for those two crops.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said scattered showers and thunderstorms in U.S. wheat areas during the coming week may not have a big impact on crops but a close watch on the frequency of rain will be warranted to make sure there are no crop quality issues to contend with. The Midwest soft wheat and that in the mid-south region may be wettest and suffer from a minor crop quality decline. A favorable mix of weather is expected in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada’s Prairies over the next two weeks supporting spring crop development, although there will be some slowdown in fieldwork. Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan may become or continue to be too wet as the rain evolves this week. Central and eastern Alberta still has pockets that are quite wet as well. Waves of rain will impact the FSU during the next 10 days to two weeks favoring western Ukraine to the Baltic States and areas between the Ural Mountains and Siberia. Portions of France are trending too dry and rain is needed. Australia’s wheat and barley crops are establishing well and are expected to see additional timely rainfall. Argentina’s planting potential is looking good after some significant rain fell late last week and during the weekend.
90-day outlook: Winter wheat harvesting has just commenced across the Plains. Data from this week’s USDA crop production report showed no fireworks for SRW, with a 1 million-bushel cut to production failing to spur markets upward. USDA’s cut to U.S. HRW production offered some momentum, but expectations of rising global ending stocks limited buying interest. Spring wheat conditions remain relatively good early in the growing season, with the crop getting a 5% boost in good to excellent to 52%, as the Dakota’s received spotty rainfall once again this week. If rains in HRW country at harvest time cause quality issues, spring wheat may stand to benefit from that scarcity later in the season.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 45 points to 72.94 cents, nearer the session high and for the week down 81 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw some short covering late this week. However, prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, which will continue to invite the technically oriented specs to the short side next week.
Initial U.S. cotton crop condition ratings came in line with the five-year average of 53% as of June 7. Easing of drought in the southern Plains and lower crude oil prices have weighed on the cotton market, with funds still having the potential to continue exiting long positions as well.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas needs a more significant drink of water and some of that may materialize in the Saturday through Monday period. Other cotton areas in Texas and Oklahoma are doing better with rainfall than west Texas, but all areas would still benefit from some timely rain. The Delta continues to have favorable soil moisture while the southeastern production areas are doing okay, but will need rain soon as well. Meantime, favorable harvest weather should continue in Argentina, despite a few brief showers. Brazil’s Safrinha cotton is suspected of being in mostly good shape, although some rain would be welcome to induce the best yields in the north. There is some potential for showers in Brazil cotton areas over the next several days which may discolor some open boll fiber.
90-day outlook: Recent solid U.S. economic data is a mixed bag for the cotton futures market. The stronger data should support better consumer confidence about the economy, which may translate into better demand for apparel in the fall. However, the stronger data also put a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year back on the table. Higher interest rates are a negative for consumer confidence. Extended retail gasoline prices above $4.00 a gallon could also dent consumer demand for apparel come this fall.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.