Markets and government offices will be closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day. Consequently, Pro Farmer will not issue any updates. On Friday, markets will operate on an abbreviated schedule, closing early at 12:05 p.m. CT. Due to the shortened trading day, Pro Farmer will provide two essential reports:
- “First Thing Today”: Delivered Friday morning around 8:00 a.m. CT.
- “After the Bell”: Highlighting the day’s price action after the early close.
We will resume our normal publishing schedule on Monday. The team at Pro Farmer extends warm wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 7 cents to $4.45 1/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw heavy short covering and perceived bargain hunting after recent selling pressure. Bulls needed to show more power this week and delivered the goods today, to set back the chart-based bears who had gained momentum.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.113 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Nov. 21. That was up 2.0% from the previous week but down 0.5% from year-ago. Ethanol stocks declined to 21.968 million barrels.
World Weather Inc. today said northern Brazil corn regions will see frequent rounds of rain through the next two weeks improving conditions for developing crops in the drier areas while bolstering soil moisture and slowing fieldwork. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Timely rain Sunday into next Wednesday will help ensure soil moisture remains favorable through the first week to ten days of December, but many areas should dry down enough overall during the next two weeks that greater rain will be needed later in the second week of December. In Argentina, the two-week outlook remains favorable for fieldwork as dry weather will be most common, with one round of rain occurring Friday into Sunday that will bring timely moisture to much of the country along with some showers during the remainder of the period.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.47 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at today’s low of $4.37 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 6 3/4 cents to $11.31 1/2, nearer the session high. March soybean meal lost 20 cents to $325.90, near mid-range. March soybean oil rose 38 points to 51.54 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures market saw renewed buying interest today, following news reports that China bought at least 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans in contracts signed since Tuesday, a day after the presidents of both countries spoke on the phone and had an upbeat conversation.
World Weather Inc. today said relief is expected from recent drying from Paraguay and Santa Catarina northward to southern Mato Grosso and Goias this weekend. However, Rio Grande do Sul may not get much rain and it may be seeing an extended period of drier weather begin. After the weekend rain event ends on Monday, portions of southern Brazil will see another 5-7 days of net drying. That should not be a problem except in places like Rio Grande do Sul where a few areas could become too dry by mid-December. Northeastern Brazil is also expecting to see some limited rain in this first week of the forecast with some increased rainfall possible Dec. 4-10. Argentina weather is expected to be well mixed over the next two weeks, although some of the rainfall may be overdone and future model runs may reduce some of the rain for southeastern parts of the nation. A significant snow event in the Midwest this weekend will produce a moisture boost that will prove to be extremely beneficial to long-term soil moisture in the region.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some momentum today. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.42 3/4 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.22 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $11.13 1/4.
March soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $329.00 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $323.90 and then at last week’s low of $321.80.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 49.24 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 52.52 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 50.32 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.40 1/2, near mid-range. March HRW rose 1 3/4 cents to $5.30, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.78 ½, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw more mild short covering following recent downside price action. Solid gains in corn and higher soybean prices today also supported buying interest in winter wheat futures. Wheat traders continue to monitor reports that progress has been made on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. Any peace deal would likely mean more wheat being shipped out of the Black Sea region.
World Weather Inc. today said colder temperatures in North America have pushed winter crops into dormancy in the north and will do the same soon for some of the central Plains and lower Midwest crops. Soil moisture is sufficient to support crops into dormancy. However, timely precipitation in the late winter and spring will be important as well. Snow cover in the northern Plains, southwestern Canada’s Prairies and possibly in the Midwest (later this week) will be sufficient protection against bitter cold temperatures. Meantime, wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan has been sufficient enough this autumn for a relatively good start to growth in the spring as long as normal weather prevails. Greater moisture would still be welcome in Russia’s Southern region, although there is no crisis in the region and crops will soon be dormant or semi-dormant.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.31 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.34 3/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 34 points to 64.57 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more short covering. Recent price action in March cotton begins to suggest the bears are exhausted and that a near-term price bottom is in place.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and harvesting should increase and some cotton should be bleached white around a few infrequent showers. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will see regular rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks and localized improvements in soil moisture are likely.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the October high of 67.57 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.83 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.